Selling my Treasury ETF because my scenario on global central bank policy was wrong
When I bought shares of the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) back on June 28, 2016, it was in the belief that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates (as early as September or as late as December) while other central banks remained committed to their...
Fed’s on the sidelines; time to buy this Treasury ETF
The Brexit vote in favor of ending the United Kingdom’s membership in the European Union effectively took Federal Reserve interest rate increase off the table for July, and September, and November. And maybe even December. Remember that the process of exiting...
What are the chances that the Brexit polls are wrong?
To anyone getting all warm and cozy with the polls showing that voters will decide to stay with the European Union in Thursday’s Brexit vote, I’ve got just one word of warning: Michigan. Remember the Michigan primary between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders this...The happiness of "early" and the sadness of "too early": How to maximize your portfolio's happiness
There’s early. And then there’s too early. Early is buying Apple (AAPL) on October 6, 2008 at $98.14 and having to wait until March 2009—six months–before the stock moves up. And up. And up. On March 6, 2009 Apple closed at $85.30. A year later on March 5, 2010...Core U.S. inflation rate accelerates to normal
Two ways to look at this morning’s U.S. inflation data. First, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in above expectations with a 0.4% increase in January. Economists had expected a 0.3% increase, according to Briefing.com. That puts the headline inflation rate at an...Inflation edges higher in Brazil–and government budget cuts are just the minimum expected
In spite of a 0.5 percentage point increase in its benchmark Selic interest rate to 11.25% and an increase in bank reserve requirements in December, inflation in Brazil failed to slow in January. The IPCA index rose 0.83% for the month, increasing the annual inflation...USDA reports global wheat producer lower than expected–forget about inflation relief from falling food prices
This isn’t good news for anyone worried that soaring food prices are fueling global inflation. Today, February 9, the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecasts of global wheat inventories because of falling production in the Ukraine. Global stockpiles will...For commodity profits follow the long cycles–here's how
The sky’s the limit. The sky is falling. In the short term pretty that much describes the behavior of commodity stocks. And it’s all too easy to get caught up on the drama of those short-term moves because the possible profits if you can outguess the market are all...Buy Baidu (BIDU)
Doing some catch up on this stock. I added Baidu (BIDU) to the Jubak Picks 50 long-term portfolio https://jubakpicks.com/jubak-picks-50/ on January 18, but this is the first time I’ve had an opportunity to explain why in detail or to actually add it to the portfolio....U.S. manufacturing growth accelerates: Will job growth follow?
Growth in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy, which has led the economic recovery, actually accelerated in January according to the ISM Manufacturing Index released yesterday February 1. This survey of attitudes among purchasing managers climbed to 60.8 in...Egypt has escalated the food crisis and shifted global economic policy on inflation too
Food prices are headed back to the historic peaks they hit in 2007-2008. Last time I wrote about food—on January 14–that was the headline.  A little more than two weeks later that observation seems old hat. Events in Tunisia and Egypt—and elsewhere in the...Where the heck are we in the economic cycle anyway? The answer is important in deciding what sectors to overweight
Are you in the right sectors of the stock market for this point in the economic recovery? Solid data stretching back to 1945 show that certain industries and sectors outperform during specific stages of any economic recovery. No argument from me on that. I think...Update Boeing (BA)
What can I say? It could have been worse. And the company (as well as investors) dodged the big bullet. Boeing (BA) reported fourth quarter earnings per share of $1.56 a share including 45 cents a share in special items. Those special items included a 50 cents a share...Relief rally takes hold ahead of the European Central Bank meeting tomorrow–Will the bank rain cash on the markets?
A very impressive relief rally is in progress today. It’s built on real good news on the U.S. economy, higher than expected growth in manufacturing in China (which is good short-term and bad long-term), strong statements from the European Central Bank—and relief that...So what happened to the euro relief rally?
Ireland formally appealed for a rescue by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund on Sunday November 21. The European Union and IMF quickly agreed to the request. Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen said he expects talks on the package to be completed in...China stocks reverse; Shanghai finishes up 2% on belief that yesterday's interest rate hike will be last one
Well, that’s one way to read it. After dropping in the first hour of trading, China’s stocks climbed,with the Shanghai Composite Index going from a 1% loss in the first hour to a 2% gain at the close. Investors and traders in China have apparently decided that...Intel's earnings bring a sigh of relief, if not excitement, to technology stocks
Solid. I’d say Intel’s (INTC) third quarter earnings report, released after the market close yesterday, October 12, is more likely to be greeted with a sigh of relief than a gasp of pleased surprise. Earnings for the third quarter came to 52 cents a share. That’s 2...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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