Another day, another retaliatory tariff
Today the Chinese Commerce Ministry announced 25% tariffs on an additional $16 billion in U.S. exports. The tariffs will go into effect on August 23 and target cars, crude oil, medical instruments, natural gas, and coal along with hundreds of other items.. The tariffs...
Is 10-year yield above 3% finally here to stay? U.S. Treasury raises targets for debt sales in second half of 2018
Yesterday the Treasury Department said that it will raise long-term debt issuance to $78 billion this quarter. That would be an increase from the $73 billion in sales last quarter and the third consecutive quarterly increase. The increased sales of Treasury debt are...
Fed statement today cements September interest rate increase
Today Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate at 1.75% to 2.00% and described the U.S. economy in terms that make an interest rate increase at the central bank’s September 26 meeting a virtual certainty (absent some startling news event). The CME...
U.S. stocks keep climbing but is the rally narrowing?
The major indexes were up today on Alphabet’s (GOOG) huge quarter, reported yesterday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed ahead 0.48% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.79% at the close. Alphabet itself finished the day with a...
Is a dip in home sales a “canary in a coal mine” for economy?
Existing home sales fell 0.6% month-over-month in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million. The consensus among economists surveyed by Briefing.com called for an annual rate of 5.45 million units. The May sales rate was revised down to a 5.41 million...
Dollar falls as President Trump criticizes Federal Reserve policy again
For a second straight day President Donald Trump has tweeted out criticism of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision to raise interest rates. In his tweets today the President wrote: “China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their...
Raising target price on Microsoft in Jubak Picks Portfolio after earnings
Going into yesterday’s earnings report from Microsoft, I felt torn. On the one hand, the stock had hit an all time record high on the strong guidance for the June quarter back in April. How much higher could the stock go? Would guidance for the September quarter...
Testing the rally: Netflix beats on earnings but lowers guidance
This is exactly the scenario I’ve been worried about. Now let’s see how the market reacts tomorrow. Today, after the market close, Netflix (NFLX) reported second quarter earnings of 85 cents a share that beat the consensus analyst projection of $79 cents....
U.S. threatens huge escalation in tariff war with China
At 12:01 a.m. last night higher U.S. tariffs went into effect on $34 billion in Chinese goods. China immediately retaliated with higher tariffs on U.S. exports such as autos and soybeans. The Trump administration already has tariffs on another $16 billion in Chinese...
I’m adding Citigroup to my Dividend Portfolio
Citigroup (C) is among the big banks that passed the most recent stress test from the Federal Reserve. That means the bank can go ahead with its plans to raise its quarterly dividend to 45 cents from 32 cents and to buyback $17.6 billion in shares. The plan would take...
Second quarter GDP forecasts start to come back to earth
Not so long ago major economic forecasts such as the GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank were calling for second quarter U.S. GDP to grow at an annual rate of better than 4%. That was extraordinarily strong growth and it fit in with forecasts from...
Government via Twitter: What did the Saudi’s actually say about increasing oil production?
On Saturday President Donald Trump wrote on Twitter that in a phone call with King Salman Saudi Arabia had agreed to increase oil production “maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels” in response to turmoil in Iran and Venezuela. The Saudi government has acknowledged that the...
So much for that U.S-China trade truce
The Trump administration has announced higher tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese export and promised additional restrictions on Chinese investments. China immediately promised to impose tariffs with “equal scale, equal intensity” on U.S. exports. The...
As expected, the Fed raises interest rates; as suspected, the Fed signals 4 increases in 2018 instead of 3
No surprise here: The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark short term interest rate by 25 basis points to 2% today from 1.75%. It was the second interest rate increase of 2018. But the Fed also signaled that it was more likely to raise rates two more times in 2018 for...
An interest rate sign of our times–3% on a CD
So there I was, minding my own business, walking down Broadway in my neighborhood, and what do I see in the window of a local bank: An offer for 3% on a five-year CD. Now this wasn’t in the window of one of the megabanks that dominate this sector in New York....
Markets today “seem” to say North Korea summit more important than G7 explosion
At 2 p.m. New York time the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was up 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was ahead 0.22%. And the NASDAQ Composite index had inched higher by 0.27%. Which is surprising given that the Group of 7 meeting ended Saturday with...
Emerging markets “emerging” as focus of worry over trade, strong dollar, credit crunch
If you can’t tell from the cascade of negative commentary, you certainly should be able to tell from trend in share prices: emerging markets have become the focus of current worries about global trade, the effects of a strong dollar, and the potential for a...
Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference focuses on catching up and differentiation
The keynote that opened Apple’s (AAPL) Worldwide Developers Conference (June 4 through 8) walked a tough balancing act between admitting that Apple needs to catch up with competitors in some areas (Poor Siri) and introducing stuff that will differentiate Apple from...
U.S. economy adds 223,000 jobs in May; odds of June interest rate increase bounce back
The U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in May, well ahead of the 190,000 gain expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com Revised figures for April showed the economy adding slightly fewer jobs, a revised 159,000 new jobs versus an initial 164,000. The official...
Here we go again on the euro: The bad news is that Italy’s financial crisis is political
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down as much at 505 points today–before rallying to a loss of “just” 391 points or 1.6%–on fears that a crisis in Italy could once again put the entire EuroZone project in danger. Italian stocks were down...
Another strong day for financials
The financial sector is up again today with the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XFL) up 0.96% as of 3 p.m. New York time. This continues a strong May run for the sector that has seen the ETF climb 5.6% from May 3–after the sector spent there period from March...
Putting gold back into the 50 Stocks Portfolio with Randgold Resources
My criteria for adding a gold stock to my long-term 50 Stocks portfolio have been reasonably consistent over the years: I’ve looked for a gold miner that was growing gold production and reducing production costs. Up until my latest revision of this portfolio in...
U.S. Treasury sets borrowing record in first quarter–Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin–What me worry?
In the period from January through March, the U.S. Treasury borrowed $488 billion. That’s a record for the quarter and $47 billion more than the Treasury had earlier estimated. The Treasury finished March with a cash balance of $290 billion, up from an initial...
GDP growth ticks lower but wage gains pick up speed: Market takes possibility of four interest increases from Fed in 2018 more seriously
U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the first quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced before the financial markets opened for trading this morning in New York. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected growth of 2.1%. In the fourth quarter...
Did Intel and Amazon finally break the sell on earnings beat pattern today?
Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC), and Microsoft (MSFT) all reported earnings after the close today. All three beat earnings estimates–but this market hasn’t been very generous in rewarding earnings surprises (after Netflix (NFLX)) that is. The key tests here...
GOOG gets hit by market profit margin fears even after good earnings
Some times in the financial markets, the numbers aren’t as important as the narrative. I think that was the case with Alphabet (GOOG), Tuesday, April 24. Monday after the market close Alphabet reported first quarter earnings of $9.93. That was a healthy 64 cents...Caterpillar says this is high water mark for the year–and everybody sells everything
Caterpillar (CAT) crystalized the market’s fears in its conference call this morning. After delivering really great results before the market opened–Caterpillar beat Wall Street earnings estimates by 72 cents a share on earnings of $2.82 a share and then...
Tech wrecks U.S. stock market again today
After a week when plunging prices for chip makers made it hard for the U.S. indexes to make much headway, even after earnings beats from companies such as Netflix (NFLX), today the software and advertising technology stocks joined in the rout. That sent the Standard...
Netflix modest earnings beat and big positive after-hours reaction good news for earnings season market
Netflix (NFLX) shares were down 1.24% during the day as investors and traders seemed to be positioning themselves for an earnings miss. (Netflix doesn’t have a record of turning in earning surprises–probably because Wall Street is so positive on the stock....Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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