Whoa! on those interest rate cuts, the Fed says
The financial markets are getting ahead of themselves in a bad case of rate cut fever, Fed chair Jerome Powell, and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard both said today. This is a message that I’ve been waiting to hear as the financial markets moved to price in...
Confrontation with Iran continues to heat up
You can measure exactly how worried the oil sector is about more attacks in the Persian Gulf by trading the insurance premiums for oil tankers in the region. War risk premiums for a standard oil cargo from the Persian Gulf and the tanker hauling it can now cost...
Raising target price on Tencent Holdings , #4 in my 10 Best Picks for the Next 6 months of 2019 Special Report on JubakAM.com
In my first three picks for my Special Report 10 Best Picks for the Next Six Months of 2019 on my subscription site JubakAM.com I’ve focused on index ETFs that, in my opinion, will ride the big trend of lower interest rates higher in 2019. In other words, these...
$416 billion for seawalls in the United States by 2040–that’s a lot of gravel sales for Vulcan Materials
In the next 20 years spending on seawalls to protect communities could cost as much as the initial investment in the interstate highway system. Total spending to defend against rising ocean levels could run to $416 billion in the next 20 years, according to a report...
Federal Reserve rhetoric moves strongly toward interest rate cut
So much for “patient.” Today after the meeting of the Open Market Committee on interest rates the Federal Reserve announced that it would leave benchmark interest rates at the current 2.25% to 2.50%. But in its words the Fed delivered what the market hoped...
Presidents Trump and Xi now likely to meet at G20 gathering
Apparently U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will talk at next week’s meeting of the Group of 20 in Osaka Japan. President Trump tweeted his morning: “Had a very good telephone conversation with President Xi of China. We will be...
Chip recovery keeps slipping further away, Broadcom says
Today Broadcom (AVGO) cut its annual sales forecast, saying that the U.S.-China trade war will wipe out the rebound in orders that it had predicted for the second half of 2019. Revenue at the chipmaker for fiscal 2019 will be $22.5 billion instead of the $24.5 billion...
Oil falls to lowest level in five months; Brent breaks below $60 a barrel
Oil slumped to its lowest in almost five months and international benchmark Brent crude book below $60 a barrel today, June 12. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 4% today to $51.14 a barrel, threatening the $50 a barrel psychological benchmark. Brent fell...
U.S. stocks wander as China trade worries nag
The market doesn’t go up every day so it’s important not to over-react to minor weakness. As of the close today New York time the Standard & Poor’s 500 index was off a slight 0.03%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average had slipped 0.05%. The NASDAQ...
Manufacturing sector contracts more than expected in May in ISM survey–but, surprising pundits, market doesn’t fold
Going into Monday, June 3, the consensus on Wall Street was that if the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing fell more than expected, U.S. stocks would follow in a rout. A lower than expected reading on the index would...
The importance of the 5% tariff that President Trump just slapped on Mexico is way bigger than the number suggests
It’s only 5%, Wall Street is saying today in what clearly sounds like an effort to convince itself when investors really know better. That unconvincing “happy talk” is why the Standard & Poor’s 500 index was down only 1.24% at the close...
Bond traders test the Powell Put today
U.S. stocks dropped again today with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down another 0.69% to 2783.03. U.S. Treasury bonds rallied with the price of the 10-yer bond up enough to push the yield down to 2.21% for a drop in yield of 26 basis points in the...
16 months on the S&P 500 with no gain–what’s it mean?
I have my theories about this–which I’ll post tomorrow, Tuesday, May 28 in a Special Report on my subscription JubakAM.com site –and the facts certainly deserve an explanation. About 16 months ago on January 26, 2018 the Standard & Poor’s...
No news is good news so far this weekend
U.S. financial markets are closed today for Memorial Day. (Can’t help but think of my Dad who climbed telephone poles to string wire during World War II. “While they shot at me,” he would say with a mixture of surprise and outrage. I’m sure you...
Further lowering China exposure in my portfolios
This morning Wall Street is buzzing with talk that the U.S.-China trade war could stretch on to 2035. I think there’s just about no chance of that. But we aren’t looking at the quick resolution of the dispute that seemed possible just 10 days ago. And we...
Stocks routed on shift in trade war sentiment
You’re entitled to feel whiplashed today. Just a few days ago, on May 16, stocks rallied on speculation that trade talks would resume relatively quickly and that the United States and China, rhetoric and tariff increases aside, would find a way within weeks to...
Oil and oil stocks take double hit today
The combination of a big build in U.S. crude inventories this week and fears that the escalating U.S.-China trade war will slow global economic growth (and global oil demand) took a big whack out of oil prices and oil stocks today. The U.S. Energy Information...
Federal Reserve minutes say, No interest rate move “for some time”
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April 30-May 1 meeting showed officials at the U.S. central bank inclined toward patience and to keeping the current wait-and-see policy in place “for some time.” Adding to the dovish tone of the minutes, many Fed...
Down yesterday, up today–traders buy the chip stocks they sold yesterday on Huawei headlines
Stocks–especially chip stocks–have rallied strongly today on headlines saying that the Department of Commerce has granted a 90-day license for U.S. companies to do business with China’s Huawei Technologies in order to service existing networks. This...
Beijing says, If the U.S. won’t play nice, China won’t play at all
The Chinese government is using the country’s official media to signal that it isn’t interested in resuming trade talks with the United States under a threat of higher 25% tariffs on another $320 billion in Chinese exports to the United States. And to make...
China warns that U.S. sanctions against Huawei could endanger trade talks
It’s not even remotely a surprise. A day after the Trump administration declared a national emergency in order to product U.S. telecommunications for foreign antagonists–with a clear eye on China and Chinese companies such as Huawei–the Chinese...
The market is dangerously dependent on the Powell Put from the Fed
Right now if the market gets bad news on the economy it goes up. Today, May 15, for example, the S&P 500 closed up 0.78% even though both U.S. and Chinese retail sales disappointed for April. Right now if the market gets bad news on oil supplies, it goes up, as...
Recent weakness good opportunity to pick up Disney for patient, long-term investors
Every so often the calendar and the movie release schedule give patient long-term investors a chance to buy Disney (DIS) on some mild weakness. That’s where we are now. The stock pulled back slightly after the company announced first quarter earnings on May 9 of...
Tariffs up, talks end, Chinese retaliation next
Whatever the ultimate end point of the trade talks between the United State and China, the next step is almost certainly the announcement of retaliatory measures by China in the wake of the Trump administration’s decision to raise tariffs on $200 billion of...
U.S. stock market wants to believe U.S.-China talks are “constructive”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 was slightly in the green at the close today at 2881.40. That marked a big turnaround from earlier in the session. As of 11 a.m. New York time the index had dipped to 2826.29. Today it was all about China and the trade/tariff talks...
Rational self-interest argues for a successful conclusion of U.S.-China trade talks in the long run; in the short run it argues that the talks will fall apart first
It is clearly in the self interest of both President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to reach an agreement that would bring the U.S.-China trade war to an end. In the long-run. That same calculus, however, argues that in the short run both leaders will let the...
Another analyst capitulates to “fear of being left out”
If this market runs out of bears, I think it’s in trouble. And today one of the market’s few remaining bears capitulated to the rally. Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy Christopher Harvey hiked his year-end price target for the Standard &...
Buffett gets paid to turn Chevron/Occidental battle over Anadarko upside down–but what about Occidental shareholders?
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) has brought Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) into its battle with Chevron (CVX) for control of Permian-Basin-rich Anadarko Petroleum (APC). Up until the entry of Buffett, Chevron had the inside edge even though it had offered a...
More of the same in today’s economic data: low inflation, good growth in consumer spending, but lagging incomes
Put today’s numbers on the economy together with those in Friday’s first quarter GDP report and the picture that emerges is of a U.S. economy growing at s very solid rate with declining inflation. But where the trends on consumer incomes and spending...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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