Interest rates are rising even before the Federal Reserve moves
The march to higher U.S. interest rates is on. Oh, the Federal Reserve won’t increase short-term rates, the only ones it directly controls, for an “extended period” yet. I still think we’re looking at mid- to late-2010 before the Fed moves. Ben Bernanke and Company...Household wealth rises and foreclosure rate hits a record–what kind of recovery is this?
Put these two headlines together from Bloomberg today and you’ve got a good snapshot of the U.S. economic “recovery” to date. “U.S. Foreclosures to Reach 3.9 Million in Second Record Year.” “Household Net Worth in U.S. Increases by $2.67 Trillion.” Let’s look at the...Mortgage deliquency rate projected to inch–and I mean inch–downward in 2010
Reassuring news on the home mortgage front: the tide of mortgage delinquencies will start to recede in 2010—unless you live in Arizona, California, Florida, New York or Virginia. Those states will see delinquencies continue to climb next year. That’s the forecast from...Good news on jobs hurts Treasuries, oil, stocks; crushes gold
All it took was an unexpectedly strong unemployment report. Following the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of numbers showing the economy lost just 11,000 jobs in November rather than the expected 125,000, the Dollar Index broke above its 2009 trend line and the...Looking for profits from the end of the energy log-jam
The news yesterday from Progress Energy (PGN) that it would shut 11 of its coal-fired plants by 2017 and replace them with natural gas and nuclear power plants shows how the lack of climate-change legislation from Congress is creating a huge backlog of energy...So how many bad loans have China's banks made? And when will the bill come due?
There’s no free lunch. Not even for China. The Beijing government has used its state-controlled banking system to provide much of the financial stimulus that has powered China to 8.9% economic growth in the third quarter of 2009. And now the bill is coming due....How to escape the next lost decade
A lost decade. 1999 to 2009 sure qualifies for many investors in stocks. A lost decade to come? I can’t tell you what stocks or stock markets will perform best over the next ten years. But I can tell you that many U.S. investors are still sitting in portfolios that...Nervous? Afraid to stay in but scared to get out? Join the club (and read my three strategies for coping)
Feeling twitchy? Your portfolio is probably full of stocks trading at 52-week highs. And I’ll bet you’ve thought about selling. And you would do that–except that the stock market keeps going up (well except for the last couple of days), cash pays close to...Peak gold? One more reason that high gold prices are here to stay
Peak gold? You may have heard of peak oil, the theory that at some point—ranging from 2005 to 2025–the world will have found all the easy oil there is to find and that after that new finds won’t be able to keep up with the global rate of consumption. But peak...My guide to how to worry: Know what to worry about and when if you don't want to get spooked out of a rally–or get killed in a correction
(Originally posted on October 14 but several readers have asked me to repost.) What me worry? On a day when the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 10,000 for the first time in a year and when the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closes within kissing...You may not like the fundamentals but this rally is headed higher
The test is over. And the stock market rally has passed. On November 16, the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the NASDAQ 100 both joined the Dow Jones Industrials in setting new recovery highs. In other words all three indexes have busted out of the trading range of 1025...Has Apple blown it? Did the company squander the competitive chance of a lifetime?
I know Apple (AAPL) is an investor darling trading near an all-time high. And I know the company’s products have tremendous consumer cache. So much so that the company is able to sell its iPhones and iMacs for prices well above those charged by competitors. But it...Is the New Frugality just hype?
Jimmy Choo—well, his iconic Sex-in-the-City shoes anyway—is now on the war-torn economic frontline. So is Stella McCartney. Anna Sui. And, of course, McDonald’s. The battle is over the New Frugality, the current marketing hot button as the United States gradually...Will rising state taxes sink the recovery in 2010?
The taxman cometh. That’s not only going to be individually painful in 2010 but the collective hit to consumers could be enough to stall the economic recovery. 2010, though is the short-term. The International Monetary Fund, in a burst of pre-holiday cheer, warned on...Is gold the new dollar?
News on November 3 that the Reserve Bank of India, the country’s central bank, had purchased 200 metric tons of gold between October 19 and 30 from the International Monetary Fund sent gold soaring to a new all-time high. The yellow metal closed at $1090 an...Saving the big banks but destroying banking
There have been no obituaries. No eulogies. No burial services. But this quarter marks the death of traditional bank at the big money center banks. Oh, I know we’ve seen amazing earnings reports from the likes of Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) this...To find the next McDonald's look to emerging markets
By 2015 one-third of companies in the Financial Times Global 500, a list that’s roughly the global equivalent of the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, will come from the world’s emerging markets, according to Bain & Co. Makes sense to me. Economic growth...GDP can't buy you happiness–so should economists start tracking GNH?
Would we all be happier if economists measured happiness? I spent a lot of time thinking about that on a camping trip this weekend. (Hey, it was really cold and I had trouble sleeping.) My friend Pamela had set my thoughts down this track by saying “You know, I don’t...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
Every post from Jubak Picks straight to your mailbox. And they're free!