Thermal coal is the next iron ore–and the stocks haven't run away from investors yet
Forget about iron ore. It’s old news. The global explosion in demand for that commodity and the huge 80% to 100% price increase that has resulted as demand outstripped supply and in the price of stocks such as Vale (VALE), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Rio Tinto (RTP.) The...Taking the hunt for bigger dividends beyond the usual suspects
It’s getting harder and harder to find a stock that pays a decent dividend. At least if you look in the usual places. What’s that you say? Look in the un-usual places? Couldn’t agree more. That’s exactly what I’m aiming to do here. The name of the song the market’s...Coming to a Wal-Mart near you: Inflation from China
Inflation. It’s different this time. It’s still got the same old causes: too much money pumped into the economy, huge economic stimulus that’s causing a shortage of goods and labor in some sectors, budget deficits and long-term debt that’s spiraling out of control and...Faster than a speeding bullet train: Three high-speed rail plays to put on your watch list
I’ve got three high-speed train stocks to tell you about—and U.S.-based investors can actually put money into one of them. (And I’ll give you a second U.S. rail equipment stock to consider.) Why not all three? Because the rising stars of the new generation of...How long can this last? The U.S. stock market is out performing the world
I can think of a dozen reasons why in the long term U.S. stocks will underperform stocks in China, Brazil, India, Canada may be even Norway, South Africa, Germany, and Turkey. Huge government debt, highly leveraged consumers, under-investment in infrastructure, a...Despite those huge reserves, China could be, gasp, broke
Is China broke? Seems a silly question right? China’s foreign exchanges reserves stood at $2.4 trillion at the end of 2009. Yes, China announced that its proposed annual budget for 2010 would have a record deficit, but the deficit is just $154 billion or 2.8% of...The lesson of the Greek crisis: Every government cheats and no one wants to know
Greece cheated on its national accounts in 2009. And that led to a budget crisis in 2010. But that’s not the important part of the story. What makes this a crisis not just for Greece, and the euro and the European Union is that everyone—from the Greek government and...How to maximize what your cash pays even when nothing is paying much of anything now
Got cash? Maybe you’d love to invest it, but where? The stock market seems pricy after a 70% rally from the March 2009 lows. And it’s been so up and down lately that it doesn’t inspire much confidence. So maybe stocks are just too risky for you. Or you’re close to...The one must-have number for successful long-term investing
How do you decide what to buy? I get the question a lot and I think it’s a good one. The answer depends on things like how long I’m planning to hold the stock, whether I see it as a value or a growth play, and where the momentum is in the market. If I’m looking for a...Is it a bull? Is it a bear? A strategy for making the best of a market that's both
So this is a cyclical bull market rally of potentially up to three to four years’ duration inside a secular bear market steady decline of potentially 10 to 20 years? That’s what I argued in my post of February 19...Why even after a 70% gain this is still a secular bear market
This is still a bear market Even though stocks, measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index, were up 70% from their March 9, 2009 low to their recent high on January 19, 2010. Yep. Yes indeed. Absolutely. If by bear market you’re talking about what’s called...How to worry–and when–in 2010
This is my fourth take on how to worry in less than six months. I wrote the first one in October when the Dow Jones Industrial Average had poked its head above 10,000 for the first time in a year (and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index was just about to kiss...When elephants fly–dividends from emerging market stocks
When emerging stock markets hand you lemons, make lemonade. Specifically dividend-paying lemonade. So far 2010 hasn’t exactly been kind to emerging market stocks. The ETF (exchange traded fund) that tracks the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) was down 6.4%...How to build a global portfolio: What countries do you want to own?
If you were building a global stock portfolio for the long run—let’s say 2020 and beyond—how would you weight the world’s stock markets? Personally, over that time period I’d pick India over China, Poland over India, and Brazil over them all. And I’d give U.S. stocks...Can the Chinese consumer save the global economy?
If, as I argued in my January 29 post https://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/29/maybe-the-u-s-consumer-is-never-coming-back-and-the-global-economy-will-stay-awash-in-excess-capacity/ , the free-spending, never met a credit card they didn’t like U.S. consumer of 2006 and...Maybe the U.S. consumer is never coming back–and the global economy will stay awash in excess capacity
Consumer demand in the United States isn’t coming back. Not anytime soon. Not for a decade or more. Not to anything like the levels of 2006 or 2007 before the global economic crisis hit full force. I know that’s not the conventional wisdom–or...The rout in global stocks is a tempest in the teapot of China's command economy
We’re getting a lesson in exactly how messy a command economy can be in China right now. And it’s roiling stock markets around the globe. I’m sure that voters from Homer, Alaska, to Lubec, Maine, (and from Tokyo to Athens for that matter) have watched in envy over the...2010–well, the first half anyway–looks good for stocks despite the current correction
The odds that the U.S. stock market will win its current bet look daunting. Especially with stocks currently threatening a good-sized correction. Investors are betting that the U.S. economy will produce a big enough increase in earnings to keep stock prices headed...Sentiment shifting on China: Is a buying opportunity ahead?
Investors have turned bullish on the United States and are less bullish—if not actually bearish so far– on China, according to a Bloomberg survey of subscribers. Investors who have been waiting for a buying opportunity in China and other emerging markets may be...Get your portfolio ready for the profitless global economic recovery
So what should investors do about it? What’s “it”? The global crisis in profits caused by excess supply over demand. Take a look at how “it” is at work across the global economy. The aluminum industry—awash in excess global capacity with more scheduled to come on...Looking for countries that have their financial acts together? Look to emerging markets like Peru and Indonesia
As far as I know, there’s no financial-markets law saying that if some countries get a credit-rating downgrade, then others must get a credit-rating upgrade to keep the system in balance. But right now it seems to be working that way. The past year has brought...How to buy into emerging market stocks now
Here’s the dilemma. Long-term emerging market stocks are going to beat stocks from the world’s developed economies like a drum. Everything right now points in that direction. Growth rates: For example, the United States looks likely to grow by 2% to 3% annually over...
10 stocks for the next 10 years from a portfolio up 58% in its first year
Buy and hold isn’t dead, but its DNA sure could use a bit of genetic engineering. Buy and hold was never intended as buy and forget, but a great bull market run like the one that stretched from 1982 to 2000 made it seem like all an investor had to do was buy and then...What comes after the Ho, Ho, Ho! of the Santa Claus rally usually isn't quite as jolly
It’s January. Time to think about taking some profits? Or at least to settle in for a period when U.S. stocks as a whole don’t go much of anywhere. January ends the three month period that for more than 50 years has been on average the best part of the year for...A cynical guide to profits from fighting global climate change
The vague, blatantly inadequate “agreement” wrangled out of the Copenhagen conference—or to give the meeting its official name The United Nations Climate Change Conference—by President Barack Obama is nonetheless a game changer. Oh, not because any of the countries...Oil to stay stuck at $70-$80 a barrel in 2010
So who ya’ gonna’ believe on oil prices in 2010? The economists at the International Energy Agency predict that oil demand will pick up sharply in 2010, rising about 1.5 million barrels a day from 2009 levels. Big oil traders, who handle about 15% of the world’s oil...China's banks copy Citigroup in hiding bad loans off their balance sheets
Banks are moving loans off their balance sheets in order to dress up their accounts for worried regulators. Only this time it isn’t Citigroup (C) or State Street (SST) that’s involved but China’s big banks. In November China’s banks packaged and then sold $18.6...Mr. Bond turns bearish on bonds
Mr. Bond, Pimco’s Bill Gross, doesn’t like bonds so much anymore. Gross, who manages the $200 billion Total Return Fund at Pacific Investment Management (Pimco) told CNBC on December 7 that Treasuries are over-valued given the odds that inflation and interest rates...Shut out in Iraq: The country's oil goes to everybody but the U.S.
All that blood and no oil? Even if you don’t believe that the Iraq war was all about oil, the results of that country’s auction for the right to explore and develop its huge oil reserves were shocking: U.S. companies were just about shut out in the results announced...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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