Why 2010 was so volatile–and why 2011 will be just as wild a ride
Take the long view and look at 2010 as a whole now that we’re near the year’s end, and it looks just slightly better than average for the stock market. In 2010, in fact, investors earned a return that clearly but not hugely above the stock market average...The U.S. is the champion stock market in the world–at the moment–although its reign is likely to be rather short
When you’re being chased by a bear, you don’t have to run faster than the bear; you just have to run faster than the other guy. Good advice when you’re camping in bear country. Good advice, too, when you’re thinking about how to allocate your money in the current very...Can Beijing fix its run-way bank lending problem? Does it really want to?
Important math yesterday, November 22, by the Financial Times’s James Kynge, the paper’s long-time China correspondent and author of the book China Shakes the World. Kynge notes that the official new bank loan total so far for 2010—a daunting 6.9 trillion renminbi in...How to profit today when you think the financial zombies will walk tomorrow
Woody Harrelson never stops killing zombies to ask, Should I buy more inflation protected Treasuries? With the zombies at the door, at the windows, in the car … it would be a silly question. But it’s exactly the kind of question investors have to ask. We may think the...Want a stock rocket? Try a high dividend telephone stock. Really. I'm not kidding.
The Federal Reserve—with a big helping hand from the global financial crisis and the central banks of much of the rest of the developed world—has turned income investing upside down. The Fed’s near 0% short-term interest rate target has sent short-term yields for...There's a U.S. oil boom–in North Dakota–and here's how to invest in it
It looks like the biggest winner from the boon in natural gas production from shale formations in the United States will be the U.S. onshore oil industry. Thanks to new techniques pioneered in the late 1970s to extract natural gas from tight shale formations from...Lots of dividends but very little yield: An add and a drop for the Dividend Income portfolio
It’s raining dividends. Or at least thoughts of dividends. First time ever dividends from companies that have never offered dividends. On September 14, Cisco Systems (CSCO) CEO John Chambers said the company is considering a 1% to 2% dividend for the fiscal year that...Want to know what to own for the next rally? Use this market as a dry run
Think of the huge jump in stocks on Wednesday, September 1, as a dry run for the eventual stock market rally. I don’t think that rally is here yet. I think the move that began on September 1 was a bounce, a very welcome bounce but still a bounce, as the extreme...Thinking long term right now is hard–which is why it's worth doing
Vacation’s over. Sigh. But I remember… We had just passed the solar farm—acres and acres of solar cells pointed toward the hot Puglia sun when we hit the traffic jam. A shepherd and his two dogs were guiding about 100 sheep down the road and that had stopped...China now the world's biggest consumer of energy
Who is now the biggest energy user on the planet? Not the United States anymore. The U.S. economy is now No. 2, according to the International Energy Agency. In 2009 China took over the No. 1 spot consuming 2.25 billion metric tons of oil equivalent. The U.S. consumed...Could reforming Fannie and Freddie wreck the Fed?
And now, fresh off passing the 2300-page Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, Congress promises to address the “problem” of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Be afraid. Be very afraid. Oh, not because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac don’t need to be...If China were to have a real estate bust, what would it look like?
The consensus is that China has a real estate bubble. The only argument is whether it will burst in some crash that will take down China’s economy or come in for a relatively soft landing that slows China’s economic growth but in no measure extinguishes it. It’s tough...Within six months global stock market performance will diverge–where do you want your money?
It may not look like it but the world’s stock markets are about to start moving in different directions. That’s certainly not at all clear now. Most days recently all the world’s stock markets have moved in the same direction—DOWN. On June 29, for example, the U.S....Want to know how painful it will be to get the U.S. budget deficit under control? Take a look at the new austerity budget in the UK
Maybe it’s their weather. But for whatever reason the Brits are really good at creating dystopias, those worst of all possible worlds. 1984. A Clockwork Orange. And now finance minister George Osborne’s austerity budget. The plan announced yesterday projects roughly...Time to rethink assumptions about interest rates–and income investing strategies
Reality has a nasty way of throwing investors’ assumptions onto the rubbish heap. Take this one: The massive stimulus packages, central bank interventions, and government budget deficits will lead to a surge of inflation and rising interest rates. That may still turn...Could the Fed keep rates at 0% into 2012? Some at the Fed think it should
The Federal Reserve will hold its short-term interest rate target at 0% to 0.25% until 2012, according to a new research paper by economist Glenn Rudebusch. That’s a much longer delay than Wall Street now anticipates. Estimates there for when the Federal Reserve will...Faster growth and cheaper too–what's not to like in emerging market stocks?
The big picture, macro reasons for putting more emerging market stocks in your portfolio are compelling enough. But you don’t need to buy into the top down macro argument. The micro, stock-by-stock reasons are just as compelling. Put a developed economy stock up...Cloud computing is the future–here's how to buy a piece at a reasonable price
Psst! Mister. You wanna buy some cloud? Cloud computing that is. It is the wave of the future in the delivery of everything from computer software to media products to computer services. Market researcher The 451 Group estimates that revenue for infrastructure as a...The selloff has created big bargains in dividend stocks–I'm adding two to my income portfolio
Once upon a time, I worked in an office beneath a sign that read: “We’re a non-profit company…but we didn’t plan it that way.” I feel a similar emotion as I write today about all the wonderful buys this market correction has created for dividend income investors. I’m...Get used to it: the global debt crisis will play out over and over again in the next decades
Someday the euro debt crisis that started in Greece and spread to engulf Europe will be over. Politicians in the 16 nations that currently use the euro will figure out the right mix of carrot and stick to get Greece, Portugal, Spain and other member states to adhere...The euro debt crisis is lowering interest rates in the U.S. and slowing inflation in emerging economies
In Europe the euro debt crisis is nothing but bad news. Riots in Athens. Strikes in Spain. Shrinking pay checks. 20% unemployment. Rising taxes. Cuts to government services. Hard times for as far as the eye can see. In the U.S? Sure, the crisis has sent a shiver...China's stock market bear: How long are its claws?
On May 11 China’s stock market slipped into official bear market territory so quietly you’d think it was no big deal. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.9% putting it down 21% from its November 23 high. What’s next? Predictions fall into two diametrically opposed...3 stocks for investing in China's mighty wind power industry
In August 2007 only one Chinese wind turbine maker, Xinjiang Goldwind, made Merrill Lynch’s list of the top ten wind turbine makers in the world. In 2010 two Chinese companies Xinjiang Goldwind and Sinovel Wind Group both make the top 5. Sinovel has climbed to No. 3...The disaster in the Gulf has killed the chance for a national energy policy: here are the winners and losers, if I'm right
The list of casualties from the explosion at Transocean’s (RIG) Deepwater Horizon just keeps getting longer. There are the 11 rig workers who died in the fire. The reputation of BP (BP), the owner of the oil, Transocean, the owner and operator of the rig, and...Apple has completely disrupted the technolgy sector: Can anybody else play this game?
It’s war. Full out war. Savage your former allies war. To the victor go the spoils war. To the death war. It’s Google (GOOG) against Hewlett Packard (HPQ) against Microsoft (MSFT) against Dell (DELL) against Lenovo (LNYGY) against HTC against Amazon.Com (AMZN)—and, of...It's hard to find water plays–but here are three from Singapore (Yes, Singapore)
The coming global water shortage. It dwarfs all other potential global shortages. Peak oil? A piker compared to no water. Push comes to shove and we will find replacements for oil. Water? Drink or die. The biology is that simple. In my December 2008 book The Jubak...The recession is over so where's the cheering?
The recession ended today, Friday, April 30. At 8:30 a.m. to be precise. That’s when the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that U.S. GDP had increased for the third straight quarter. After growing by 2.2% in the third quarter of 2009, and 5.6% in the fourth...Go for the growth–and where to find it at a reasonable price
Three cheers. Growth is back. Of course, what investors want to know is where is economic growth likely to produce the biggest increase in earnings. And, perhaps even more important, where hasn’t growth, actual or just hoped for, already been priced into share prices....Cheap money is the root of all financial bubbles–and it's still at work now
If you’d like to see somebody—lots of somebodies, if I had my wish–go to jail for their role in creating the lob al financial crisis, then $8 million looks cheap. That’s the budget for the Financial Crisis Investigation Commission. If, just for starters, some of...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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