NASDAQ tops all-time high: Does that signal a correction?
Thus was supposed to be automatically posted while I was out hiking the Appalachian Trail last week. It ran afoul of a software glitch (mine, I think.) I wrote this before I left on my hike. Since I wasn’t eaten by bears, I’ll be back posting as usual...
China’s markets are in the midst of a minor–so far–correction
While financial markets have been celebrating the results of the French presidential election with a global risk on rally, Chinese markets have been going through a correction over the last week or so. Before the tiny move up today–on April 25 the Shanghai...
Market’s faith in the growth story fading
In spite of a vote of confidence from the International Monetary Fund and solid first quarter GDP growth in China, the market’s faith in economic growth strong enough to move U.S. stocks up from current levels is fading. You can see that in negative comments...
In latest CBO report federal debt held by the public rises to 150% of GDP within 30 years
The Congressional Budget Office has released its newest projections for government spending, revenue–and most importantly–debt over the next 30 years. This release, the first under the Trump administration, essentially follows the conclusions of the last...
Winners from the Fed’s move on Wednesday
The jump in the price of gold and the even huger spike in the prices of gold mining stocks tells us something really important about how the financial markets see the Federal Reserve’s action and rhetoric on Wednesday, March 15. On Wednesday gold for April...
China’s growth target: More of the same but a little less
China’s government has announced its new economic growth target for 2017. At “around” 6.5% it’s just a bit lower than the 2016 target of 6.5% to 7%. China’s GDP grew by 6.7% in 2016. The slight decline in the headline growth target is...
More than one-third of U.S. households will struggle to pay their water bills within the next five years
Water rates have soared by 41% between 2010 and 2015, according to water industry figures. If that trend continues, monthly water bills could reach a national average of $170 a month, according to new research funded by Michigan State University and the National...
Shiller says Dow 20,000 isn’t important and entire rally since 2000 is an illusion
Count on Robert Shiller, the author of Irrational Exuberance and the winner of the Nobel prize in economics in 2013, to rain on the Dow 20,000 parade. Hs latest piece–I read it on The Guardian...
Yield on the stocks in my Dividend Portfolio as of January 12
A number of readers have asked me for updates on the current yields of the stocks in my Dividend portfolio. That’s a good idea: The big rally in dividend paying stocks in 2016 has had a serious impact on yields with many once high-yielding stocks appreciating in...
My forecast of the big events and macro trends for the year ahead: The 12 most dangerous months of 2017
I’ve got good news for all those who didn’t find 2016 volatile enough. Yep, 2017 looks likely to top 2016 for volatility. Hard to imagine, perhaps. Even though the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) spent much of the year near multi-year lows, because...
China faces an increasingly frenzied, increasingly dangerous game of financial Whac-A-Mole
Where to begin? China faces a depreciating currency, a bond market that has switched from rally to sell off, huge outflows of cash, and what looks like a resurgence of inflation. Fixing one of these problems alone would be a huge challenge to the People’s Bank....
China’s yuan on collision course with Trump in 2017
$10 billion here. $10 billion there. And soon you’re talking about real money. China’s foreign exchange reserves fell $69.1 billion in November to $3.05 trillion, the People’s Bank of China said today. That follows on a $47.5 billion drop in October....
After the big oil rally: Winners from OPEC’s agreement to cut production
This post originally ran on my subscription site JubakAM.com on December 1. The entire energy sector was up Wednesday on OPEC’s agreement to cut production–but not every stock rose to the same degree. I think these themes defined the way that the market...
6 more points for my A-W investor’s guide to the post-Trump victory financial landscape
The problem with trying to put together a comprehensive guide to the likely investment impacts of a Trump administration on the fly in the day after the election is that you inevitably leave stuff out. This being the Internet, however, it’s easy to add on to...
A new landscape for investors after a Trump victory–my guide from A-W (I can’t find an X,Y, or Z)
And to think that just yesterday I was scouting for an investment that would let me go long the Mexican peso and thinking of cutting back my exposure to biotechs. Not today. My thinking on both those potential investments has been turned upside down by Donald’s...
Facebook beats earnings expectations yesterday but plunges today
Facebook (FB) crushed Wall Street expectations for the third quarter when it announced earnings after the close yesterday. And yet the shares closed down 5.68% today to $119.95. How come? Some of it is the general market nervous that I spelled out in my Morning...
Can Facebook beat sky-high expectations on November 2? Adding it to my long-term portfolio
How high are expectations for Facebook’s (FB) third quarter earnings report after the close on November 2? The report comes with the stock at an all-time high. (Shares closed at $130.99 on October 31.) Wall Street is looking for 96 cents a share, up from 57...
Why AT&T’s bid for Time Warner, even if not smart in itself, raises odds that Verizon will buy Yahoo
On Monday, October 24, the U.S. stock market expressed its doubts that the AT&T (T) bid for Time Warner would go through/should go through. But despite those doubts I think the mere fact of the bid increases the likelihood that Verizon (VZ) will buy Yahoo (YHOO)...
Chickens come home to roost? After an earnings beat McDonald’s faces tough comparisons just as all-day breakfast becomes old hat
So now McDonald’s (MCD) comes to the hard part. On Friday October 21, McDonald’s reported third quarter earnings of $1.62 a share, 14 cents a share better than Wall Street projections. Revenue dropped 2.9% year over year, but at $6.42 billion still beat...
Apple earnings, revenue, and iPhone sales disappoint almost exactly as Wall Street had projected
Unfortunately for the price of Apple (AAPL) shares and for Apple shareholders, Wall Street estimates for the September quarter that Apple reported last night, October 25, were almost precisely on track. Apple beat earnings estimates by a penny, reporting $1.67 a...
3 moves for a vulnerable market
If this market is vulnerable, what should I do? I’ve been asked that question repeatedly since I first called this market vulnerable back in my October 11 post “Suddenly U.S. stocks seem vulnerable.” To answer that–the what should I do...
U.S.oil and gas rig count inches up again–it’s not enough to lift the drilling sector–yet
The total number of oil and natural gas rigs operating in the United States rose by 11 to 522 in the week ended September 30, according to Baker Hughes. That follows on last week’s increase of 5 rigs in operation. The bulk of the pick up came in oil rigs where...
Online ad spending trends to pick new winners among Facebook, Google and the rest of the sector
Investors start to see second quarter reports on revenue and earnings from Internet search, streaming, and social media companies next week when on Monday, July 18, both Yahoo (YHOO) and Netflix (NFLX) report. Amazon (AMZN) follows on July 21. And then in the...Where the heck are we in the economic cycle anyway? The answer is important in deciding what sectors to overweight
Are you in the right sectors of the stock market for this point in the economic recovery? Solid data stretching back to 1945 show that certain industries and sectors outperform during specific stages of any economic recovery. No argument from me on that. I think...The chip war that's bad for Intel is good for the shares of chip equipment makers
The same logic that has pushed shares of chipmaker Intel (INTC) down despite record earnings and revenue is pushing up the shares of semiconductor equipment makers Look what happened on January 14, the day after Intel announced its earnings. For the day Intel fell by...10 stocks for the next 10 years: It's time for my annual update to the Jubak Picks 50 long-term portfolio
So far, this pick 10 stocks for the next ten years thing is a piece of cake. All you have to do, after all, is start your picks in the bottom of a bear market but close to a recovery and then ride out the next ten-year bull market, right? That was good enough for a...My five picks on the global markets to overweight in 2011
How did the stock market do in 2010? Depends. Which stock market are you talking about? The United States–where the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index climbed 15%–or Spain—down 19% for 2010? China–where the iShares FTSE China 25 was up just 3.5%...10 stocks picks for profiting in a volatile 2011
2011 is shaping up to be a volatile year. The euro debt crisis threatens to expand to include Spain—before Greece and Ireland have moved out of danger. The U.S. economy seems to be on a path of moderate growth but the end of spending from the 2009 stimulus package in...So much depends on the People's Bank of China
“Don’t fight the People’s Bank of China,” is my new mantra for investing in today’s global financial markets. It replaces that old Wall Street saw “Don’t fight the Fed.” Right now what China’s central bank does on currency exchange rates, money supply, and interest...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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