Selling copper pick Freeport McMoran on fears of U.S./China tariff war
Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold (FCX) was the third and last copper stock I added to my portfolios back in January 12, 2018–after Southern Copper (SCCO) and First Quantum Minerals (FQMLF). I added so much copper since copper prices were soaring in 2017–up...
What President Trump can actually do about Amazon–and what you should do about Amazon
Another day’s worth of tweets by President Donald Trump attacking Amazon (AMZN) and another day of losses for the stock. At 3 p.m. Monday New York time Amazon shares were down another 5.21% (in the midst of a meltdown in the technology sector, I’d note, so...
China retaliates on tariffs; U.S. stocks fall again
It’s always hard to attribute a market move to one particular news event, but today the odds are good that this morning’s plunge in stock prices is in reaction to China’s decision to impose tariffs on 128 U.S. products in response to the Trump...
“Smart Money” and shorts are skeptical on Monday rally
The Smart Money Flow Index shows that professional money managers remain skeptical of the rally. The index is near a two-year low and advanced only 1.2% on Monday, a day that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average move up 2.8%. (The Smart Money Flow Index tracks moves...
Sell the rally is the new Wall Street practice
Twice today investors and traders sold an intraday rally.  Think we might have a pattern here? After hitting a 0.38% gain at 11 a.m. New York time, the Standard  & Poor’s 500 went into a steady decline.  Then, after having rallied by 2 p.m. to just below...
So what’s behind today’s plunge in U.S. stocks?
Okay, so the announcement of U.S. tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods didn’t help the market today. But U.S. stocks, which had been down 1.30% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 at 11 a.m. and down 1.38% for the Dow Jones Industrials, didn’t...
Fed raises interest rates and marks steeper path on future increases
Well, it wasn’t unexpected so stocks didn’t plunge. But it is still close to what the financial markets feared. Today, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark short term interest rate another 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%.  And forecast a...
How to manage risk in this market when the traditional risk safe havens aren’t working
If you spend a significant part of your day staring at your computer to watch the markets, you know that, perplexingly, the traditional safe havens for mitigating portfolio risk haven’t been working very well. For example, gold, which is supposed to go up when...
I think they’re really going to do it: My odds on the Trump administration targeting China in a tariff war went up to 70% today
Today the White House announced  that President Donald Trump has picked Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn as director of the White House National Economic Council. Kudlow worked as an economic advisor to President Reagan where he was a dedicated believer in...
CPI inflation comes in on the mark–no surprises ahead of March 21 Fed meeting
After a worrying 0.5% jump in January, headline inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index increased by just 0.2% in February. That was right on the 0.2% mark expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and...
Rethinking 2018: Growth looks marginally slower, risk higher even in first half
It’s only March but I’m rethinking my take on 2018. When the calendar pages turned over into 2018, my take on the year was that for stocks the first half would be much like 2017: Despite rising interest rates from the Federal Reserve, there was enough...
10-year Treasury climbs to 2.91% on less than enthusiastic bills auction
Not a good way to begin if you have to sell $441 billion in net debt in the first quarter of 2018. This morning the U.S. Treasury sold $96 billion of short-term bills at yields unseen since 2008. At auction the government sold $51 billion of three-month bills at a...
Get ready for the deluge in the Treasury market this week
With the U.S. financial markets closed for Presidents’ Day and with markets in China and Hong Kong still closed for the Lunar New Year, it’s a slow news day for stocks and bonds today. But get ready for the action to resume on Tuesday with much of the...
Inflation continues to creep higher in today’s CPI report; Treasury yields rise again
Headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation climbed 0.5% in January, the Labor Department announced today. That was above the 0.4% increase expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. (Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 0.3% increase.) Core CPI,...
After reading this new study on medical expenses in retirement my advice is Stay healthy and don’t be poor. Otherwise you’re screwed
I sit up and take notice when an anecdote from what’s called “real” life gets confirmation from a detailed study. That’s exactly what happened to me recently. And the picture this paints for retirement and medical expenses as we age isn’t...
PayPal beats on earnings and revenue, but falls after hours on profit taking
PayPal Holdings (PYPL) reported fourth quarter earnings of 55 cents a share, 3 cents a share above Wall Street estimates, and revenue of $3.71 billion (on a foreign-exchange neutral basis) vs projections for $3.63 billion. Revenue climbed 24% year over year for the...
The march to a yield of 2.7% on the 10-year Treasury has set off nervous market chatter–and a retreat in stock prices today
When is high too high? The U.S. stock market has been a real champ at sailing past the prospect of higher interest rates to new high after new high. But the march of the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has led to a pause for thought among traders and investors. The...
Trump administration pushes a weak dollar at Davos
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin gave the markets a green light to push the U.S. dollar lower in remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Currency traders, already on board the lower-dollar train, didn’t waste time before pushing the throttle. The Dollar...
How much higher will a surge in new Treasury supply push bond yields? How about 2.9% on 10-year Treasuries by the end of 2018?
Another date to put on your investing calendar: January 31. That’s when the U.S. Treasury is scheduled to announced how it plans to finance the government’s huge revenue shortfall over the next three months. The betting on Wall Street is that the...
Netflix rally on earnings tells us more about how complacent this market than about Netflix
This market remains determined to rally as we head into earnings season. Look no further than the reaction to earnings from Netflix (NFLX) for evidence. The stock market could have reacted to yesterday’s earnings from Netflix (NFLX) by selling down the shares....
My eighth stock pick of Christmas is Bank of America–and eight maids a-milking
I’m adding shares of Bank of America (BAC) to my Dividend Portfolio today. The stock yields only 1.2% on trailing 12-month dividend payments so why am I adding it to a portfolio dedicated to beating the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond? Because Bank of America...
My seventh stock pick of Christmas is McDonald’s–and seven swans a-swimming
I’ve become convinced that the best way to think about McDonald’s (MCD) and other established fast-food stocks is as cyclicals. Oh, not in the usual way where the fortunes of a company rise and fall with the cycles in the economy. No, I think the...
Dividend Portfolio total 2017 return 6.48%; 2 buys and 2 sells in 2018 rebalancing
2017 was a tough year for benchmarking my Dividend Portfolio. For the year the total price appreciation on the stocks in the portfolio after all buys and sells was 3.4% The 21.64% return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 crushed that. The dividend yield on the...
I never like to see this kind of big intraday reversal–but it’s not that serious YET
U.S. stocks came racing out of the gates on strength in overseas markets with the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading at 26,000–283 points higher than the Friday close at one point during the day. Then came the plunge as indexes gave back all their gains and...
What will the tax cut bill do to house prices in 2018 and beyond? That’s a big deal for your portfolio
Back on January 10 when I wrote the post “Are we witnessing a market melt up? on my two subscriptions sites JubakAM.com and JuggingWithKnives.com I noted that I didn’t feel that I could move on to rebalancing individual portfolios until I’ve dealt...
The challenges to rebalancing a portfolio in 2018–and some suggestions
2017 left investors with a huge challenge as we all move into 2018. After a 21.6% return on the Standard & Poor’s 500 stocks in 2017, do we let the money ride for 2018 or move it into other assets? Some stocks had almost unbelievable years in 2017. Amazon...
China officials said to recommend slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasuries
Just what an already jittery bond market needs: reports that senior Chinese officials reviewing the country’s purchases or U.S. Treasuries have recommended slowing of halting that buying. It’s not clear from these reports whether the recommendation is...
Are bond yields finally climbing (and bond prices falling) in a belated response to a global shift in central bank policies?
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed 7 basis points today to 2.55%. That’s the highest yield since March. That prompted bond guru Bill Gross to declare that we have entered a confirmed bear market in bonds with the upward trend lines for bond prices of...
The Federal Reserve raises interest rates as expected–but the dot plot has a surprise or two
No surprise: The Federal Reserve raised its short-term benchmark Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 1.25% to 1.50% at today’s meeting of the Open Market Committee. No surprise: The Fed and its outgoing chair Janet Yellen didn’t say anything...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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