U.S. stocks gently slide but VIX “fear index” continues retreat
If the market were inclined to sell off today, it could have found plenty of reasons. Under the heading of one-off scary stuff, I’d put:Â Continued tensions between the Saudis and just about everyone else over allegations–which look to be true–that...
Stocks hold most of last hour’s gains–and that’s important
An extremely volatile day–but the market held most of its gains into the close–and that’s important if you’re trying to figure out whether we’ve seen the last (for a while, at least) of this week’s selling. Let’s take a look...
Market reaction to big bank earnings not good way to start earnings season
Earnings from Citibank (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC looked solid this morning but the more the market thought about them the more disappointed it got. The Financial Sector Select SPDR ETF (XLF) was up 1.6% in the early going but as of 2:30 p.m. New...
What’s the opposite of a “Goldilocks” market?
A Big Bad Wolf market? A Sauron market? An Evil Stepmother market? The reaction to this morning’s inflation report suggests me might need a name for this kind of market. The worry, my worry, going into today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report...
Tomorrow’s inflation numbers are important after today’s rout
At 3:30 p.m. New York time the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down a big 2.39% or 632 points. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was lower by 2.55%. The NASDAQ Composite Index fell 3.16%. (The S&P 500 closed down 3.29%. The Dow was lower by 832 points or...
Oil sells off as Hurricane Michael goes from “rumor” to “fact”
Today’s drop in oil prices looks to me to be a classic buy on the rumor sell on the fact trade. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate dropped 2.81% today to $72.85. International benchmark Brent crude fell 2.68% to $82.72 a barrel. Yesterday oil moved up as...
Oil moves higher today on Hurricane Michael, IEA supply warning
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.7% today to close at $74.81 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude rose 1.23% to $84.94 a barrel. The International Energy Agency warned of what it termed a “risky situation; the oil markets are...
International Monetary Fund cuts global growth estimates
Just what we need: More worries about global growth. Last night the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for global economic growth to 3.7% in 2018 and 2019. In its last forecast three months ago the IMF had projected that the global economy would grow...
Why Nektar is extremely oversold right now
The longs and the shorts continue to battle over Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR.) Right now the shorts have the best of that fight. No contest. The shares of this biotech fell another 1.24% today to close at $51.71. A little more than a month ago they were at $68.49. But I...
Markets decide they have nothing to fear except Treasury auctions, Italian budget, and U.S.-China trade war
Actually, considering the list of fears today, it’s kind of remarkable that the U.S. stock market hasn’t fallen farther. (The U.S. bond market is closed for the Columbus Day holiday.) In the EuroZone the confrontation between the Italian government and the...
“Odd” job numbers this morning for September but job market still strong
The economy added only 134,000 new jobs in September–probably a result of Hurricane Florence. But a huge revision to August and July job gains more than offset the weak current month. Economists surveyed surveyed by Briefing.com had projected the economy would...
Watch out! Oil prices look to be running away from OPEC/Russia controlWatch out! Oil prices look to be running away from OPEC/Russia control
Russia and Saudi Arabia have opened the taps, pumping an extra 1 million barrels a day of oil, and the two countries are making a big show of saying that they could do even more. But the oil market doesn’t seem to care and oil prices keep climbing. As of 11:30...
Wall Street sees a Trump administration trade strategy: Let’s all gang up on China
Today Wall Street and trade analysts are saying that they see a grand strategy in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal announced yesterday, in the trade deal with South Korea, and in negotiations with Japan and the European Union. The goal, this analysis says, is to put...
China’s economy continued to slow in September so Shanghai stocks moved up
On Saturday the Chinese government and private surveys released more numbers showing that the country’s economy was slowing. In September growth in China’s manufacturing sector stalled after 15 months of expansion, according to the Caixin/Market...
Mortgage rates and odds of December interest rate increase climb after Fed meeting
Yesterday meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee ended with the committee raising the short-term Fed Funds benchmark rate 25 basis points and signaling an intention of raising rates again in December and then three more times in 2019. Yesterday...
Oil is a story today, but Treasury market is “the” story
Oil prices are up again this morning with the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate ahead 0.21% to $72.23 a barrel as of noon New York time. International benchmark Brent has gained 1.02% to $82.03 a barrel. But “the” story today, I’d argue, is the...
Non-tariff barriers start to hit U.S. companies in China
A survey by investment companies AmCham China and AmCham Shanghai found that 52.1% of U.S. companies operating in China have seen an increase in non-tariff barriers to their business operations. The biggest problems reported were increased inspections (27.1%), slower...
Now who’s worried about a trade war? Certainly not buyers of U.S. stocks today
Today the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both hit record highs. The NASDAQ Composite was up 0.99% as of 2 p.m. New York time. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) advanced 0.95%. West Texas Intermediate crude...
Battle over bond yields, interest rates shifts to 2019
Remember back at the beginning of 2018 when bond investors and traders couldn’t agree on whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates two times, or three times or four times in the year? (It wound up being four.) Well, we’re looking at a replay...
China says it won’t intentionally devalue yuan in response to U.S. tariffs
Just hours after the Trump administration announced 10% tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese exports, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the nation wouldn’t devalue its currency in order to make its exports more competitive. Which, of course, doesn’t...
Stocks rise on “It could have been worse” reaction to new U.S. tariffs on China
A day after the Trump administration announced 10% tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese exports to the United States, stocks are up on a “It could have been worse” reaction. At 12:30 p.m. New York time the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock...
Pioneer Natural Resources signs deal to cut fracking sand costs by 50%
It’s always important to see who has the leverage–customers or suppliers–when costs start to rise. On the recent agreement between Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), perhaps the dominant oil shale producer in the Permian Basin, and fracking sand...
President Trump announces 10% tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese goods
Global financial markets spent most of the day waiting for the shoe to drop. And shortly after 6 p.m. Washington time it did. President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on an additional $200 billion in Chinese exports to the United States. Those tariffs will go...
It was a He said; Xi said market today
For much of today U.S. stocks were locked in a slightly negative range as investors and traders vacillated from fears that the Trump administration would impose a new set of tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods and the hope that Chinese leader Xi Jinping would...
Is the next big tech stock thing, Chinese tech stocks?
There’s some evidence that the money that has left big U.S. tech stocks such as Facebook (FB), Netflix (NFLX), Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) on some recent days has been headed into big Chinese tech stocks such as Tencent Holdings (TCEHY), Alibaba (BABA),...
A slip in the dollar and a bounce in the euro
The dollar is down today against the euro and some emerging market currencies, such as the Turkish lira, are rallying. The news ostensibly behind the move is some data indicating that U.S. inflation slipped in August. The logic goes that with inflation sliding the...
My “best-estimate” scenario for the U.S. stock market for the next 60 days
Let’s start with a perhaps less obvious question: Why 60 days? Because that will take us through the historically volatile months of September and October (when fear can beget fear) to the middle of November, which historically tends to mark a turn in the...
What if China actually welcomes the Trump administration’s tariffs?
China trade hardliners in the Trump administration, such as advisor Peter Navarro, have predicated their tariff campaign against China on the theory that hiking tariffs on more than $500 billion in Chinese exports to the United States (as proposed at the moment) will...
White House talk of tariffs on an additional $267 billion in Chinese goods ends “breather day”
Markets started off today as if they were determined to take a breather from a week of worry that the emerging markets crisis was about to spread to developed markets. In morning trading the Standard & Poor’s 500, the NASDAQ Composite, and the iShares MSCI...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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