China confirms some of Trump-Xi deal; global markets steady
It had seemed unlikely. China couldn’t officially confirm the details in the trade and tariffs deal struck between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Chinese officials said, until President Xi and the Chinese delegation returned from...
It’s important to remember on this down, down, down day that an earnings growth slump in 2019 and a 2019 recession aren’t the same thing
It’s hard to take a step back on a day when the Dow Jones Industrial average closed down more than 700 points (and 3.10%), but that’s exactly what I’m going to suggest. The huge sell off was driven by three major factors in my opinion. First, the...
On eve of Trump-Xi talks China’s economy continues to slump, overnight data say
China’s purchasing managers index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector continued to slump in November, overnight data showed. The index dropped to 50, the level that marks the divide between expansion (above 50) and contraction (below 50.) The new export orders...
OPEC advisory group recommends cut of 1.3 million barrels a day to December 6 oil cartel summit
It’s only an advisory group with no decision-making power, but the recommendation from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Economic Commission Board is the first step in changing production policy at OPEC & Friends. Today the group told OPEC...
China’s banking system springing leaks all over
Take your pick. Either story shows the deep stress in China’s banking system at a time when China’s economy is already slowing. Story 1: After trying to regulate the Peer to Peer lending industry, Beijing has decided to shut down most of the $176 billion...
Jubak Picks member Salesforce beats on earnings, raises guidance for 2019 and 2020
Salesforce (CRM) started today to the upside based on last night’s earnings beat of 11 cents a share. Salesforce shares were up 4.57% as of noon New York time today. And then came the market-wide bounce after Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech suggesting...
Fed’s Powell speaks softly; stocks roar higher
Sometimes the market hears what it wants to hear and then storms higher (or lower) on what is little more than a hint. In the short run that doesn’t much matter since the oftentimes huge gains are real and investors can and do take them to the bank. In the...
One more for the list: ECB starts countdown to euro decision on December 13
On December 13 the European Central Bank will decide whether to cap its $2.9 trillion program of bond buying as planned. The bank had decided that Europe’s economy was strong enough for the central bank to wind down its purchases of bonds that have kept interest...
The market waits to hear what Trump and Xi will say over the weekend
Nothing will be as important this week to the financial markets as the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the November 30-December 1 summit of the Group of 20 in Buenos Aires. Ahead of the weekend meeting days when the...
What’s ahead for this market? Does it turn into a true bear?
If you own any of the big technology stocks that led the U.S. higher in the first eight months of 2018, the losses over the last six weeks sure make this feel like a bear market. Remember that the classical definition of a bear market is a drop from the high of 20% or...
Retail doesn’t ride to the rescue today–Target and Kohl’s send sector lower
The hope among some in the Wall Street crowd was that today’s earnings reports from retailers such as Target (TGT) and Kohl’s (KSS) –and especially guidance for the Christmas shopping quarter to come–would end the plunge in the U.S. stock...
So much big picture uncertainty
For this short holiday trading week, I’m expecting volatility in asset classes that range from oil to stocks to the U.S. dollar, as traders and investors try to figure out how to “price in” a metric ton of macro uncertainty scheduled for the next...
Stocks that led the market up are now leading it down
Today Apple (AAPL) fell 3.96%. Facebook (FB) was down 5.72%. Amazon (AMZN) lost 5.09%. Netflix (NFLX) tumbled 5.45%. The big technology stocks that led the market up to historic highs are leading this fall off on a combination of general market nervousness and...
If you’re worried about the Credit Crunch, then Ford debt nearing junk status is a bad sign
I’ve written more than once about my conviction–and consequent worry–that we’re headed for a global credit crunch sometime in the next three to four years. I’m looking for the kind of Minsky Moment that sees financial markets go into...
Another sign of coming inflation to worry the Federal Reserve
The 3.1% year over year growth in average hourly wages reported for October is, by itself, enough to convince the Federal Reserve that an increase in inflation, long awaited with concern, is visible on the horizon. Today’s jump in the Producer Price Index (PPI)...
How could Apple be so stupid?
Let’s see. You’re a company running into serious global headwinds in a maturing (or mature market) that are raising huge doubts about your ability to increase unit sales quarter to quarter for your core product. You: a) Grimly admit that unit sales are...
Return of buybacks enough to put floor under U.S. stocks
Part–but certainly only part–of the weakness in U.S. stock prices in October came from the blackout period on companies buying back their own shares. Many companies have self-declared buyback blackout periods running from a couple of weeks before the...
News reports on U.S.-China trade talks play bigger in Asia than in U.S.
News reports that President Donald Trump has ordered staff to prepared a potential trade offer ahead of his talks with China’s president Xi Jinping on November 30-December 1 sent Asia markets and currencies soaring in the overnight session. U.S. stocks and bonds...
Optimism on China trade talks drives U.S. stocks higher
This morning at least a tweet from President Donald Trump is the most important factor moving U.S. stocks higher. In his tweet President Trump said he had had a productive conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping on trade. Â “Those discussions are moving...
U.S. Treasury borrowing to double in 2018 to $1.34 trillion
Amazing what important financial news can get pushed off the front page these days. On Monday the drop of even more U.S. indexes into correction territory and reports that the White House was teeing up new tariffs on another $250 billion in Chinese goods pushed truly...
Rally shifts into reverse as Trump administration announces more U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports likely on the way
Monday, October 29, started off with a technology-led rally. As of 10:04 a.m. New York time the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 1.81% and the technology-heavy NASDAQ Composite was higher by 1.75%. And then Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration was...
Today this looks increasingly like a market in sector rotation
The major U.S. indexes opened the day strongly lower on disappointing earnings news and guidance from Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG) after the market close yesterday. But the markets reversed in the morning–the low for the day for the Standard &...
GDP grows at annualized 3.5% in third quarter, but…
Real GDP (that is GDP discounting any gains from inflation) increased at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the third quarter. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for 3.3% growth rate. In the second quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.2%. Big driver in...
‘Tis the season–well “seasons” actually–for end of year selling, portfolio window dressing, small cap rallies, and the January effect
So many trends get packed into the last three months of the year–and you shouldn’t forget about any of them when it comes to buying and selling. (You’ll find lots of information on these and other calendar trends in the Stock Trader’s Almanac...
Amazon falls after hours on disappointing guidance
Shares of Amazon (AMZN) climbed 7.09%, 117.97 points, in the regular session today on hopes for a good earnings report after the market close. The company delivered an earnings beat for the current quarter, reporting earnings of $5.75 a share, $2.66 better than the...
Nothing but bad news–and S&P 500 still sinks only 0.55%
Red, red, red everywhere today. Caterpillar (CAT) and 3M (((MMM) disappointed on guidance. China and Europe sold off. As did the financial sector with the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) falling 0.77% to $25.90 to break or at least test support. And, then, as...
Words, yuan from Beijing push two-day rally to 7%
Friday’s disappointing GDP report did goad China’s government to action to support the stock market and the economy, as I wrote that it would in my Friday post. Words from Chinese President Xi Jinping helped continue the surge in Chinese stock prices off a...
Market drop accelerates as tensions with Saudis rise
What started off as a minor pull back on worries over interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in light of yesterday’s release of minutes from the central bank’s September 26 meeting has turned into a more serious sell off on news that U.S. Treasury...
Fed’s “footnotes” in yesterday’s minutes from the September meeting worry markets
Reading the fine print is good advice when it comes to minutes from meetings of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee too. So far today, October 18, the financial markets are in a slight retreat because of notes released yesterday along with the minutes of...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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