Earnings season draws to a close–with another (slight) warning
As of this morning, more than 75% of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index have reported fourth quarter earnings. As per usual, the bulk of companies have beaten Wall Street earnings estimates. (This is just a game that Wall Street and CEOs...
China trade talks outcome uncertain–but market reaction even more difficult to read
Today, a day when the U.S. financial markets seem to be in a mood to worry about China, is a good time to look at the likeliest outcomes of the U.S.-China trade talks and the likely market reaction to those outcomes. The clock is ticking on the Trump...
S&P 500: Testing, testing at 2742
So far this is a normal pause. Stocks frequently pause, pull back, move up again, pull back again when they confront a major resistance level. So it’s not surprising that the Standard & Poor’s 500 took a breather today after the index closed at 2731...
China when? worries financial markets
President Donald Trump has made it clear–repeatedly–that there won’t be an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade war until he has met with China’s President Xi Jinping. And that’s got the market worried. Because the Trump...
Amazon earnings results mean hotter war with Google and Facebook in digital ad space
Nothing wrong with 20% year over year revenue growth–unless, of course, you’re Amazon (AMZN). On Thursday, January 31, the company reported that revenue growth in the fourth quarter–the strongest retail quarter of the year–had at 20% come in at...
Forget recession worries–the big danger now is in the credit cycle
The Federal Reserve and the world’s other central banks face an impossible choice. On the one hand, they could have tighten the money supply by raising interest rates or other means. That would have risked sending economies near recession into...
One consequence of the change in Fed policy likely to be a weaker dollar
A number of Wall Street and big international banks are forecasting a drop in the dollar as a result of the Fed’s decision to back off on raising interest rates in 2019. Morgan Stanley, for example, says that the dollar has peaked and has forecast the yen...
Half way to an earnings recession?
The latest compilation of analyst earnings projections by FactSet shows that Wall Street is expecting earnings for the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 to drop by 0.8% year over year in the first quarter of 2019. That’s down from late January...
Don’t fight the Fed…and the Bank of Japan, and the People’s Bank, and the European Central Bank
Once upon a time–as late as 2018–the consensus thinking in financial markets was that the Federal Reserve was but the first central bank to raise interest rates. Other central banks, most notably the European Central Bank, (but not the Bank of Japan, which...
Market goes all in on “No interest rate increase for 2019”
The market has priced in just about a zero percent change of an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve in 2019. In fact, looking out through all of 2019 and into 2020, the financial markets believe there’s more chance of an interest rate cut than of a...
So how long before markets react to the dark side of today’s Fed decision?
Today the financial markets are in love with the idea that the Federal Reserve will raise rates no more than once in 2019–and more likely zero. And that the central bank will re-examine its policy of letting its balance sheet run off to the tune of $50 billion a...
The Fed capitulated today, the market believes: Did the Fed intend to send that message?
It’s hard for me to see the Federal Reserve’s statement today after the meeting of the Open Market Committee, and then Fed chair Jerome Powell’s presentation at the most-meeting press conference, as anything other than capitulation to the financial...
Stock market heard what it wanted to hear from the Fed
Today the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee said it will The Federal Reserve said it will be “patient” on any future interest-rate increases. moves. And it will be flexible and “prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet...
Indictment of China’s Huawei Technologies comes just days before next round in U.S.-China trade talks
The U.S. Department of Justice filed criminal charges Monday against Huawei Technologies, China’s biggest technology company. The charges include an allegation that the company stole trade secrets from TMobile and that Huawei committed bank fraud by violating...
Even as deal is struck to end shutdown, gold soars
Gold hit a seven month high on Friday, gaining more than 1%. Spot gold briefly broke above $1300 an ounce. Gold futures climbed 1.5% to $1,298.30 an ounce. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) climbed 1.46% to $122.86 on volume 10% above the daily average. The 52-week high...
Great day for chip stocks–and then Intel misses
Today’s regular session was great for chip stocks. The Vance Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) was up nearly 6% on the day powered by earnings beats for the quarter from Texas Instruments (TXN) up 6.5%; Xilinx (XLNX) up 17.5%; and Lam Research (LRCX) up 14.8%. And...
“Lower guidance” a theme for tech earnings this afternoon
Most of the major U.S. stock indexes clawed their way back into the green after a mid-day journey into the red. The Standard & Poor’s 500, for example, closed the day up 0.22% (at 2638) from the Tuesday close. But that was still below the 2641 the index...Today it’s a battle between positive earnings and negative China trade sentiment
And, as of 12:30 p.m. New York time, negative trade sentiment was winning. The day started off with positive earnings reports–earnings beats and positive guidance–from IBM (IBM), Procter & Gamble (PG), and United Technologies (UTX). In premarket...
Why I can’t put away my bear market worries #4: Consumer sentiment is becoming more negative
Most of the recent sentiment surveys show the same result: While sentiment about current conditions–AKA the present–remains strong, sentiment about conditions 6 to 12 months out is sliding in a pessimistic direction. The recent Bloomberg Consumer Comfort...
Why I can’t put away my bear market worries #3: Money flows that look like a bounce and not like a rally
Rallies share one very important pattern. In a rally more investors and traders want to jump in as prices rise. They’re convinced that rising prices mean that prices will climb even more in the future and so they buy, driving prices higher. Bounces follow a...
Why I can’t put away my bear market worries #2: Financials to tech earnings transition
The big banks have delivered to start off earnings season. And the financial sector has been a key source of strength for the uptrend in stocks since January 3. Over the last month, the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) is up 5.4% as of the close on January 17....
Trump administration economists double estimates of shutdown costs
Yesterday, President Donald Trump’ economic advisers more than doubled their estimate of the damage to the U.S. economy by the shutdown of parts of the U.S. government affecting some 800,000 federal workers. The Council of Economic Advisers now calculates the...
China promises to cut taxes, increase spending to stimulate economy
China will cut taxes by $300 billion (or about 1.2% of GDP according to JPMorgan) in an effort to increase growth in a slowing economy, deputy central bank governor Zhu Hexin, assistant finance minister Xu Hongcai, and Lian Weiliang, vice chairman of the National...
China data nudge to global growth fears
Overnight, China reported as larger than expected December trade surplus ($57.06 billion against an expected $51.53 billion) but a December year over year 7.6% drop in imports that argued for a slowdown in China’s domestic economy. Economists had expected a 5%...
Citigroup begins fourth quarter earnings season with a revenue miss
This morning Citigroup (C) kicked off earnings season for the big banks and stocks in general with a report that first, argued that the banking sector hasn’t fixed its big problem–no toppling revenue growth–and, second, that those traders and...Estimates for bank earnings continue to move lower ahead of next week’s earnings reports
Bank stocks aren’t doing badly today ahead of the start of earnings reports from the biggest banks starting on Monday. But to me it looks like today’s slightly upward bias is a bet not on good earnings but that analysts have gone too far with their cuts to...
Bad retail sales results from Macy’s fail to dent stocks
Big-box retailer Macy’s (M) cuts its guidance for comparable store sales, earnings, and revenue for fiscal 2019 on weaker than expected holiday sales. Kohl’s (KSS) reported a 1.2% increase in holiday comparable store sales. The company said that fiscal...
Initial enthusiasm at Fed minutes from December fades in afternoon
So what, exactly, didn’t the markets like about the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting? After an initial spike to the day’s high at 2595 at 2:09 p.m. New York time, nine minutes after the 2:00 p.m. release of the minutes, the Standard &...
Fed members talk up flexibility on interest rates; odds of an increase rise from 0%
In the last few days the heads of the Chicago, Boston, Atlanta, St.Louis, Dallas, and Cleveland Federal Reserve Banks have all said that the Federal Reserve will be patient on any interest rate increases in 2019 with even the most hawkish officials, such as...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
Every post from Jubak Picks straight to your mailbox. And they're free!