Presidents Trump and Xi now likely to meet at G20 gathering
Apparently U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will talk at next week’s meeting of the Group of 20 in Osaka Japan. President Trump tweeted his morning: “Had a very good telephone conversation with President Xi of China. We will be...
Two more oil tankers attacked in Gulf of Oman; here’s how financial assets moved and which might be interesting ahead
For the second time in a month two oil tankers came under attack in international waters near the strategic Strait of Hormuz. One ship, a Japanese-owned tanker carrying methanol, was apparently attacked by limpet bombs attached to its hull or by a mine. The second...
Chip recovery keeps slipping further away, Broadcom says
Today Broadcom (AVGO) cut its annual sales forecast, saying that the U.S.-China trade war will wipe out the rebound in orders that it had predicted for the second half of 2019. Revenue at the chipmaker for fiscal 2019 will be $22.5 billion instead of the $24.5 billion...
Oil falls to lowest level in five months; Brent breaks below $60 a barrel
Oil slumped to its lowest in almost five months and international benchmark Brent crude book below $60 a barrel today, June 12. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 4% today to $51.14 a barrel, threatening the $50 a barrel psychological benchmark. Brent fell...
Materials stocks up today even as U.S.-China trade fears linger
I think the strong move in commodities stocks today has more to do with continued weakness in the U.S. dollar than it does with any renewed faith in growth in the global economy. After all the U.S.-China trade war doesn’t look any more settled today than it did...
U.S. stocks wander as China trade worries nag
The market doesn’t go up every day so it’s important not to over-react to minor weakness. As of the close today New York time the Standard & Poor’s 500 index was off a slight 0.03%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average had slipped 0.05%. The NASDAQ...
U.S. markets counting on visit from Goldilocks tomorrow
Tomorrow, Friday, June 7, brings the May jobs report. Right now economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for the economy to add a robust 175,000 jobs with unemployment holding steady at 3.6% (as 49-year low) and average hourly wages growing at a very positive 3.2%...
Manufacturing sector contracts more than expected in May in ISM survey–but, surprising pundits, market doesn’t fold
Going into Monday, June 3, the consensus on Wall Street was that if the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing fell more than expected, U.S. stocks would follow in a rout. A lower than expected reading on the index would...
The importance of the 5% tariff that President Trump just slapped on Mexico is way bigger than the number suggests
It’s only 5%, Wall Street is saying today in what clearly sounds like an effort to convince itself when investors really know better. That unconvincing “happy talk” is why the Standard & Poor’s 500 index was down only 1.24% at the close...
Bond traders test the Powell Put today
U.S. stocks dropped again today with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down another 0.69% to 2783.03. U.S. Treasury bonds rallied with the price of the 10-yer bond up enough to push the yield down to 2.21% for a drop in yield of 26 basis points in the...
16 months on the S&P 500 with no gain–what’s it mean?
I have my theories about this–which I’ll post tomorrow, Tuesday, May 28 in a Special Report on my subscription JubakAM.com site –and the facts certainly deserve an explanation. About 16 months ago on January 26, 2018 the Standard & Poor’s...
No news is good news so far this weekend
U.S. financial markets are closed today for Memorial Day. (Can’t help but think of my Dad who climbed telephone poles to string wire during World War II. “While they shot at me,” he would say with a mixture of surprise and outrage. I’m sure you...
Stocks routed on shift in trade war sentiment
You’re entitled to feel whiplashed today. Just a few days ago, on May 16, stocks rallied on speculation that trade talks would resume relatively quickly and that the United States and China, rhetoric and tariff increases aside, would find a way within weeks to...
Oil and oil stocks take double hit today
The combination of a big build in U.S. crude inventories this week and fears that the escalating U.S.-China trade war will slow global economic growth (and global oil demand) took a big whack out of oil prices and oil stocks today. The U.S. Energy Information...
Federal Reserve minutes say, No interest rate move “for some time”
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April 30-May 1 meeting showed officials at the U.S. central bank inclined toward patience and to keeping the current wait-and-see policy in place “for some time.” Adding to the dovish tone of the minutes, many Fed...
Down yesterday, up today–traders buy the chip stocks they sold yesterday on Huawei headlines
Stocks–especially chip stocks–have rallied strongly today on headlines saying that the Department of Commerce has granted a 90-day license for U.S. companies to do business with China’s Huawei Technologies in order to service existing networks. This...
China warns that U.S. sanctions against Huawei could endanger trade talks
It’s not even remotely a surprise. A day after the Trump administration declared a national emergency in order to product U.S. telecommunications for foreign antagonists–with a clear eye on China and Chinese companies such as Huawei–the Chinese...
The market is dangerously dependent on the Powell Put from the Fed
Right now if the market gets bad news on the economy it goes up. Today, May 15, for example, the S&P 500 closed up 0.78% even though both U.S. and Chinese retail sales disappointed for April. Right now if the market gets bad news on oil supplies, it goes up, as...Negative economic numbers from both China and United States this morning
I’d give the edge to China in the “Whose news is worse?” sweepstakes this morning. For April China’s retail sales rose 7.2% year over year–good news except that economists were projecting an 8.6% increase and that March showed 8.7% year...
LNG from Cheniere dead in the sights of trade war with China–short term I’d think about selling; long term I’d just hang on
LNG (liquified natural gas) from Cheniere Energy (LNG) is one of the U.S. exports most in danger in the newest round of the U.S.-China trade war. Reflective of that the stock was down 3.57%, or $2.42 a share, as of 2 p.m. New York time, to $65.45. That has taken the...Market falls as China retaliates for U.S. tariff hike on Friday
On Friday, the Trump administration raised tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese exports to the United States to 25% from 10%. The move, the administration said, was in response to Chinese efforts to walk back provisions the country had agreed to, according to the White...
Tariffs up, talks end, Chinese retaliation next
Whatever the ultimate end point of the trade talks between the United State and China, the next step is almost certainly the announcement of retaliatory measures by China in the wake of the Trump administration’s decision to raise tariffs on $200 billion of...
U.S. stock market wants to believe U.S.-China talks are “constructive”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 was slightly in the green at the close today at 2881.40. That marked a big turnaround from earlier in the session. As of 11 a.m. New York time the index had dipped to 2826.29. Today it was all about China and the trade/tariff talks...
Rational self-interest argues for a successful conclusion of U.S.-China trade talks in the long run; in the short run it argues that the talks will fall apart first
It is clearly in the self interest of both President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to reach an agreement that would bring the U.S.-China trade war to an end. In the long-run. That same calculus, however, argues that in the short run both leaders will let the...
Who knows what’s real and what’s spin in the U.S.-China trade talks
Today U.S. stocks are moving slightly higher as if they believed that talks Thursday and Friday over will see an agreement between the U.S. and China on trade and tariffs rather than a breakdown in the negotiations. As of 2:30 the Standard & Poor’s 500 is...
Another analyst capitulates to “fear of being left out”
If this market runs out of bears, I think it’s in trouble. And today one of the market’s few remaining bears capitulated to the rally. Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy Christopher Harvey hiked his year-end price target for the Standard &...
Politburo throws some cold water on Chinese stocks
On Friday China’s ruling body, the Politburo, suggested that it thought less stimulus might be needed since the economy had recovered its footing. Instead policy should focus on deleveraging China’s banks and corporate balance sheets, and on avoiding...
Official figures show improvement in China’s economy in March
China’s economy expanded at 6.4% year over year in March. That beat the 6.3% expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. That projected 6.3% growth itself marked a step up in optimism about China’s economy. Other official numbers reported over night...
Adding Parsley Energy to my Jubak Picks Portfolio
When I set out to research and write my recent Special Report Five Sector Facing Disruption That Could Crush Your Portfolio I wanted to focus on the “destruction” side of the process of “creative destruction” that makes up economic growth in...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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