6 more points for my A-W investor’s guide to the post-Trump victory financial landscape
The problem with trying to put together a comprehensive guide to the likely investment impacts of a Trump administration on the fly in the day after the election is that you inevitably leave stuff out. This being the Internet, however, it’s easy to add on to...
A new landscape for investors after a Trump victory–my guide from A-W (I can’t find an X,Y, or Z)
And to think that just yesterday I was scouting for an investment that would let me go long the Mexican peso and thinking of cutting back my exposure to biotechs. Not today. My thinking on both those potential investments has been turned upside down by Donald’s...
U.S. stocks rally ahead of election on second Clinton e-mail letter from FBI
The hedges have been coming off today as the financial markets react to FBI director James Comey’s second letter on the FBI’s perusal of a trove of email’s on a laptop that was shared by Clinton aide Huma Abedin with her estranged husband (and former...
Get Grandfathered at JugglingWithKnives.com
Please note, this isn’t the same thing as being a grandfather. But have I got a deal for you. Go to my new site JugglingWithKnives.com before November 15 and sign up to receive my nightly emails from that site. Then you’ll have access to the site and...
Advance warning: New York markets are going to have a lot to digest when they open Friday morning
Earnings reports from Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG) after the close today. Earnings from ExxonMobil(XOM) before the open tomorrow. The advance report on third quarter U.S. GDP at 8:30 a.m. New York time tomorrow. Yep, the financial markets in New York are going to...
Apple earnings, revenue, and iPhone sales disappoint almost exactly as Wall Street had projected
Unfortunately for the price of Apple (AAPL) shares and for Apple shareholders, Wall Street estimates for the September quarter that Apple reported last night, October 25, were almost precisely on track. Apple beat earnings estimates by a penny, reporting $1.67 a...
Caterpillar and 3M beat on third quarter earnings, but lower fourth quarter guidance
This isn’t the pattern I want to see–although it is the one I’m worried about. Caterpillar (CAT) beat Wall Street earnings estimates for the third quarter by 9 cents; 3M (MMM), for its part, beat by a penny. But both companies also lowered guidance...
3 moves for a vulnerable market
If this market is vulnerable, what should I do? I’ve been asked that question repeatedly since I first called this market vulnerable back in my October 11 post “Suddenly U.S. stocks seem vulnerable.” To answer that–the what should I do...
Oil gains on a surprise drop in U.S. inventories
Oil prices jumped on a surprise draw down of U.S. crude inventories of 5.25 million barrels in today’s report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Analysts had been looking for an increase of 2.1 million barrels in U.S. inventories. U.S. benchmark...
Another indicator: Will the market reward Netflix blowout earnings tomorrow?
Netflix reported third quarter earnings of 12 cents a share, beating the Wall Street consensus by 7 cents a share. Revenue climbed 31.7% to meet Wall Street expectations. And the company raised guidance for the fourth quarter of earnings of 13 cents a share versus the...
Today’s IBM earnings will provide an indicator of market direction tomorrow
The market reaction tomorrow to IBM’s third quarter earnings, announced after the close today, will tell investors and traders a lot about what this market regards as a disappointment and how vulnerable U.S. stocks are to less than exciting earnings results. IBM...
U.S. markets decide not to go anywhere ahead of the weekend
U.S. stocks stabilized today–thanks to better than expected earnings from Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and, well, Friday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed up 0.02%. U.S. crude oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 0.24% but...
Suddenly U.S. stocks seem vulnerable
It’s not like U.S. stocks didn’t have enough to worry about today. The bond market priced in the highest level of inflation expectations since May. Oil fell as Russia’s biggest producer Rosneft said it won’t cut output. Alcoa (AA), the company...
A week of oil talk–with volatility and (probably) higher oil prices
Lots of talk with the potential to move oil markets on tap this week. And already today we’re got the first installment of that talk from Russian President Vladimir Putin at the World Energy Congress in Istanbul. (The congress brings together OPEC and non-OPEC...
Jobs number comes in light but in an OK kind of way
The U.S. economy added 156,000 jobs in September after an upwardly revised August report of 167,000 net new jobs. The September number was less than the 172,000 jobs forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The official unemployment rate ticked up to 5% in the...
Today gold pays attention to dollar, interest rates, Fed
Sometimes it’s not so much new news that moves the market as it is a tipping point where the market decides to pay attention to what it has known all along. Today gold dropped to a three-month low to close at $1253 an ounce. That drop brings the 200-day moving...
Seadrill gets a huge bounce on refinancing story
Update October 4. The New York traded ADRs of deep-water drilling specialist Seadrill (SDRL) are up huge this morning on reports that the company’s largest shareholder (at 23%), John Fredriksen, is willing to lend the rig company as much as $1.2 billion. The...
U.S.oil and gas rig count inches up again–it’s not enough to lift the drilling sector–yet
The total number of oil and natural gas rigs operating in the United States rose by 11 to 522 in the week ended September 30, according to Baker Hughes. That follows on last week’s increase of 5 rigs in operation. The bulk of the pick up came in oil rigs where...
You can read today’s inflation data two ways–which will the Fed pick?
Hope you weren’t expecting this morning’s inflation data to tell you whether or not the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its December 14 meeting. (I believe that an interest rate increase at the Fed’s November 2 meeting is just about a...
As usual, today’s “agreement” by OPEC is more talk than action
What exactly did OPEC agree to in Algiers today? Oil rallied big time today on news that OPEC countries have agreed to reimpose a production ceiling and to drop production to 32.5 Â to 33 million barrels a day. At the low end of the range that would amount to a...
Buying opportunity to come? Chesapeake Energy tumbles on fears that Icahn will sell remaining stake
Update September 27, 2016 Earlier this month Carl Icahn cut his position in Chesapeake Energy (CHK) by more than half. Nothing to worry about for other shareholders, he said. The sale was for tax reasons. Well, today that “Move along. Nothing to see here”...
Brazil–and Itau Unibanco–is rallying big on hopes of an interest rate cut from the central bank
Update September 26, 2016 Could Brazil see the first interest rate cut since 2012 in October? With the Banco Central do Brasil’s benchmark Selic interest rate at 14.25% there’s certainly plenty of room. And even though the country’s politics are a...
Oil prices continue lower on worries over Wednesday report on U.S. inventories
Two down days in a row–a big trend given the volatility in oil price trends recently. As of the close on Tuesday, August 30, October futures for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, were down 0.28% to $46.22 a barrel. The selling comes as a Bloomberg...Jubak’s Picks Performance: 2011 down 2.3%; yearend cash reaches 37%
The Jubak’s Picks, my 12-18 month portfolio, lost 2.3% for 2011. That trailed the 2.1% return for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index during the year. The problem for the portfolio was my inability to stay nimble enough to navigate the market’s volatility in 2011. Or...
How bad will the effects of Brexit be? Pick your time frame
German investor confidence fell in July on worries over the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union. Released today the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, which looks six months ahead ( in other words into early 2017), fell to -6.8 from...
Netflix misses expectations for this quarter, disappoints on guidance for next quarter
After the close of trading today, July 18, Netflix (NFLX) reported second quarter revenue and subscriber growth below Wall Street projections. In after hours trading Netflix shares fell 16.81%. Tomorrow’s season will show whether the results at Netflix affect...
Announcing JugglingWithKnives.com–a website to go with my book on volatility
One of the obvious issues in writing a book about volatility is that, well, it’s volatile. What were good ideas yesterday become bad ideas tomorrow–and vice-versa. That’s why when I wrote my book on volatility Juggling with Knives I promised a...
What are the chances that the Brexit polls are wrong?
To anyone getting all warm and cozy with the polls showing that voters will decide to stay with the European Union in Thursday’s Brexit vote, I’ve got just one word of warning: Michigan. Remember the Michigan primary between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders this...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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