Can the EuroZone kick its debt problem down the road again? To where?
Remember May 2010? That was month of the first Greek debt bailout by the European Union, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Central Bank. $145 billion over three years. July 2011 saw another bailout. Then there was the October 2011 50% write down of...
China’s foreign exchange reserves fall below $3 trillion
It’s mostly symbolic, but in financial markets symbols count. In January China’s foreign exchange reserves dropped below the $3 trillion mark for the first time in almost six years, the People’s Bank of China announced today, February 7. The drop, the...
National Security Advisor’s remarks on Iran upend oil market after today’s initial decline on U.S. inventory build
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported today that U.S. crude inventories climbed by 6.5 million barrels; energy analysts were looking for build of 3.289 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels against projections for a build of...
Trump rally turns into Trump rout–for today at least
If you’ve been wondering–as I have–exactly how much erratic behavior and how many off-the-cuff executive orders it would take to unsettle the global financial markets, today provides, perhaps, an answer. About this much. Over the weekend the Trump...
Mexico’s President Pena Nieto cancels next week’s meeting with President Trump
Let the negotiations begin! On one side U.S. President Donald Trump who wants to build a wall between Mexico and the United States (and have Mexico pay for it) and to renegotiate NAFTA (among other things.) On the other side the Mexican government of President Enrique...
On my paid sites: Long-term options trade on Facebook and Apple
It’s been quite a while since I shared with you what I’ve been thinking and writing about on my paid sites. Yes, that’s sites. Plural. Which explains why I haven’t filled you in since July. I’ve been busy building a second site,...
OPEC agrees on monitoring system but Saudis say compliance is so strong that production cuts might not be needed past May
On Sunday January 22 OPEC and non-OPEC producers including Russia announced what looks like a credible mechanism for monitoring the production cuts that these nations agreed in December. And Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said that with better than expected...
There goes the neighborhood: In one interview President-elect Trump bashes both EU and NATO
In an interview with the London Times and Germany’s Bild President-elect Donald Trump managed to dismiss the European Union as a tool for expanding German exports and to label NATO as obsolete. Trump praised the Brexit vote saying that people “want their...
China’s export engine falters again
Calculated in yuan, China’s exports rose a tepid year-over-year 0.6% in December. Unfortunately, China’s export companies don’t pay for raw materials such as oil and copper or for subassemblies from Malaysia or Indonesia in yuan but in most cases in...
China’s inflation rate at the factory level surges to 5.5% annual pace in December
Sort of OK news and bad news on inflation out of China over night. The Consumer Price Index rose by just 2.1% year-over-year in December. Economists had been looking for inflation to increase by 2.2%. A slower than expected increase in the price of vegetables, a key...
The inflation squeeze on the European Central Bank just got tighter
In my macro look forward at 2017 “My-forecast-of-the-big-events-and-macro-trends-for-the-year-ahead-the-12-most-dangerous-months-of-2017/” I flagged the lose/lose decision facing the European Central Bank in the year ahead. The bank’s current policy...
My forecast of the big events and macro trends for the year ahead: The 12 most dangerous months of 2017
I’ve got good news for all those who didn’t find 2016 volatile enough. Yep, 2017 looks likely to top 2016 for volatility. Hard to imagine, perhaps. Even though the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) spent much of the year near multi-year lows, because...
Light volumes make it hard to find a market trend–but watch volatility and the VIX
On a day that has been dominated by geopolitical news–the Obama administration has imposed sanctions in response to Russian cyberattacks during the November election–light volume in the financial markets today make drawing any conclusion from market moves...
Surprise! U.S oil inventories rise when they were expected to drop
For the week ended December 16, U.S. crude inventories grew by 2.26 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Going into this morning’s report, oil analysts had expected stockpiles to fall by 2.3 million barrels. That surprise...
China faces an increasingly frenzied, increasingly dangerous game of financial Whac-A-Mole
Where to begin? China faces a depreciating currency, a bond market that has switched from rally to sell off, huge outflows of cash, and what looks like a resurgence of inflation. Fixing one of these problems alone would be a huge challenge to the People’s Bank....
Traders long U.S. dollars figure there’s another 2% to 3% free money in this trade before the end of the year
Yesterday the dollar rose another 1.2% against the euro to $1.0415, the highest since January 2003. And the US. currency climbed by another 1.4% against the yen. The Dollar Index added to its gain to hit a 15-year high. Today the dollar has backed off a bit. Not...
Happy now? European Central Bank cuts rate of monthly bond purchases but extends program–maybe for a really long time
The European Central Bank today extended its bond-buying program to the end of 2017 but cut the monthly purchases to 60 billion euros from 80 billion euros. That would take the total for this quantitative-easing effort to 2.2 billion euros ($2.4 billion.) That will...
China’s yuan on collision course with Trump in 2017
$10 billion here. $10 billion there. And soon you’re talking about real money. China’s foreign exchange reserves fell $69.1 billion in November to $3.05 trillion, the People’s Bank of China said today. That follows on a $47.5 billion drop in October....
So much for the post-Trump-victory drug stock rally
“I’m going to bring down drug prices. I don’t like what’s happened with drug prices,” President-elect Donald Trump said in an interview with Time posted on the magazine’s website today. So much, the stock market has concluded today, for the idea that a President...
In Italy Renzi’s constitutional referendum doesn’t just lose; it gets destroyed
The preliminary count at 3:14 a.m. in Rome (9:14 p.m. in New York) shows Italian voters rejecting Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s referendum on constitutional change by an almost 60/40 margin. If Renzi’s proposals had lost by a narrow margin, he might have...
After the big oil rally: Winners from OPEC’s agreement to cut production
This post originally ran on my subscription site JubakAM.com on December 1. The entire energy sector was up Wednesday on OPEC’s agreement to cut production–but not every stock rose to the same degree. I think these themes defined the way that the market...
Oil continues to rally but oil stocks run out of fuel and tech stocks take down S&P
After yesterday’s surprise agreement to cut production from OPEC, oil prices have continued to climb–West Texas Intermediate was up 3.07% to $50.96 as of 3:15 p.m. New York time this afternoon–but oil stocks have stalled with such leaders from...
Another day, another OPEC rumor–this one sends oil prices down
Another day. Another batch of OPEC rumors. Oil prices were flying high again until about noon New York time when they retreated on headlines that emphasized a lack of agreement from Iran, Iraq, and Indonesia on the proposed deal. For a while this morning and yesterday...
Oil prices surge on new optimistic theory about production cut at OPEC’s November 30 meeting
U.S. oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate surged 3.61% to $47.34 a barrel and international crude benchmark Brent 3.71% to $48.60 a barrel as of 11:45 a.m. New York time today as the market posited a new, optimistic theory about OPEC November 30 meeting. That meeting...
Rampaging dollar puts pressure on emerging market currencies and central banks
Yesterday, November 17, Mexico’s central bank raised interest rates for the fourth time in 2016. The new rate of 5.25% is the highest since 2009. The Mexican peso traded today, November 18, at 20.5626 to the dollar as of 2 p.m. New York time. And that’s just one...
Oil price volatility increases as we get closer to OPEC’s November 30 deadline
Oil prices were all over the chart on Wednesday, November 17, as negative data battled optimistic words. Look out for more days of this war as we get closer to the November 30 meeting of OPEC that is supposed to result (but might not) in an agreement to significantly...
Financial markets decide the S&P earnings recession is over–time to sell my S&P short ETF
It looks like the third quarter saw the end of the long earning recession for Standard & Poor’s 500 companies. That recession had seen earnings for the S&P 500 companies drop for five straight quarters. With more than 90% of the S&P 500 companies...
Global rout in bonds continues–new danger spot Japan
The rout in global bonds continued today. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed 7 basis points to 2.22% as of 3 p.m. New York time. That’s the highest level since January and comes after a jump of 37 basis points last week. Yields on the 10-year German...
Oil stumbles to near $42 before steadying
I suspect that today’s “rally” in oil was simple a result of the commodity falling too far, too fast and opening the way for some traders to make a buck or two on the upside. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell to $42.24 a barrel as of 11:45...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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