Fed minutes from May point to June interest rate increase
The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May 3 meeting, released today, point to another interest rate increase, the second for 2017, at the central bank’s June 14 meeting. According to the minutes, “most participants judged that if economic...
2 new volatility stock picks on my paid JubakAM.com site: Celebrate 20 years of Jubak Picks and sign up for your 30-days of free access to read all about them
What are you waiting for? If you haven’t signed up for my free offer of 30-day of access to my JubakAM.com site, why not? You don’t want to read about new stock picks for my Volatility Portfolio? Ordinarily I’d write a teaser here to let you know...
Buy on the dip reflex intact today
Last night I posted that today would be critical for this market’s buy on the dip reflex. Yesterday’s move up after the Wednesday rout wasn’t convincing, I noted, and a retreat today would have raise doubts that the long-standing buy on the dip...
Celebrate 20 years of Jubak Picks and use your 30-days of free access to my $199 paid JubakAM.com site to read my take on tomorrow’s market volatility
Usually I’d be teasing my post on my paid JubakAM.site here and telling you to subscribe if you want to read all of what I think tomorrow will bring after today’s extraordinary volatility. The Dow Industrials fell 372 points and the VIX volatility index...
Markets rediscover risk–for a day anyway
This morning it looks like the combination of turmoil in Washington and some weak economic data have led traders and investors to take money out of risk assets and put money into safe havens. As of 11:40 a.m. New York time, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was off...
Fed has June 14 interest rate increase in its crosshairs
The Federal Reserve is certainly behaving like it will raise interest rates another 25 basis points at the June 14 meeting of the Open Market Committee. The U.S. central bank raised its target for the Fed funds rate to 0.75%-1% at its March meeting. The financial...
Oil back down this morning as “hedgies” reposition
So much for Monday’s oil rally. This morning, a day after Russia and Saudi Arabia succeeded in talking up oil prices with promises that OPEC and allied non-OPEC producers would extend the current production cuts past their June expiration until the end of 2017,...
Watch out for volatility around Friday’s CPI inflation report
Friday’s Consumer Price Index release will have extraordinary power. Maybe even enough to move the financial markets. Ordinarily, the monthly report of inflation in the Consumer Price Index isn’t a market-shaking event. The CPI isn’t the inflation...
Macron swamps Le Pen but Euro markets retreat
And now comes the hard part. Centrist newcomer Emmanuel Macron trounced far-right candidate Marine Le Pen in Sunday’s vote for president of France. Macron won 66.1% of the vote in the two-person run off. The political and business leaders of France and the...
NASDAQ tops all-time high: Does that signal a correction?
Thus was supposed to be automatically posted while I was out hiking the Appalachian Trail last week. It ran afoul of a software glitch (mine, I think.) I wrote this before I left on my hike. Since I wasn’t eaten by bears, I’ll be back posting as usual...
China’s markets are in the midst of a minor–so far–correction
While financial markets have been celebrating the results of the French presidential election with a global risk on rally, Chinese markets have been going through a correction over the last week or so. Before the tiny move up today–on April 25 the Shanghai...
Hope on repealing and replacing Obamacare–and moving quickly on to tax cuts–returns to Wall Street
U.S. stocks rallied today on “news” that Republicans had reached a deal to repeal and replace Obamacare. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed up 0.76% to 2355.92. I put “news” in quotes because the full story out of Washington...
Market’s faith in the growth story fading
In spite of a vote of confidence from the International Monetary Fund and solid first quarter GDP growth in China, the market’s faith in economic growth strong enough to move U.S. stocks up from current levels is fading. You can see that in negative comments...
We’ve moved to a risk-off market–for how long?
It’s a classic risk off market today as of 4 p.m. New York time. All the safe havens are up. The yen is ahead 1.2% to 109.65 to the dollar, breaching the 110 level for the first time since November. Gold is 1.73% higher to $1275.60 an ounce. The 10-year U.S....
The market didn’t react to the Syria raid today, but the real stress lies ahead
The U.S. launched 59 cruise missiles at a Syrian airbase last night in retaliation for President Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons on a rebel-held town in Idlib province. And financial markets barely budged on Friday, April 7. The Standard &...
Jobs report not too hot, not too cold
So how many lives does this Goldilocks market have, anyway? This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added just 98,000 jobs in March. That was the weakest gain since May 2015 and way under the 180,000 jobs expected by economists...
Will tomorrow’s jobs number be too strong for the markets?
Should be an interesting morning tomorrow. The U.S. government is set to release the jobs report for March at 8:30 a.m. New York time. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are looking for the economy to add a net 180,000 jobs. That projection could be low, however,...
Financial markets take-away from today’s Fed minutes: Shrinking the balance sheet on tap in 2017
Amidst all the talk about inflation and inflation targets, and the strength of the labor market, and the role of stock prices in monetary policy, what the financial markets fastened on in the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March minutes, released this...
Big declines in car sales argue for top in auto cycle
Even big sales incentives weren’t enough to prop up U.S. auto sales in March. Sales trailed estimates with sales at Ford Motor (F) and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU) showing big drops of 7.2% and 4.6%, respectively. General Motors (GM) saw a smaller than...
Housing strength and Fed chatter push dollar higher–and economy continues to support stocks
Pending home sales for February climbed 5.5%, according to the National Association of Realtors. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for a 2.4% gain. The jump is the largest since July 2010.Pending home sales had dropped 2.8% in January. Pending home...
Winners from the Fed’s move on Wednesday
The jump in the price of gold and the even huger spike in the prices of gold mining stocks tells us something really important about how the financial markets see the Federal Reserve’s action and rhetoric on Wednesday, March 15. On Wednesday gold for April...
Fed raises interest rates a quarter of a percentage point and Yellen then talks markets in off the ledge
As is frequently the case, it’s not so much what the Federal Reserve did today as what Fed chair Janet Yellen said. At its meeting today the Fed’s Open Market Committee raised the central bank’s benchmark short-term interest rate 25 basis points to a...
Oil up today after plunge yesterday: What’s this volatility telling us?
Oil prices have bounced back this morning from yesterday’s tumble with West Texas Intermediate climbing 1.63% and the Brent international benchmark advancing 1.49% as of 11:45 a.m. New York time. The gain still leaves West Texas Intermediate below $50 a barrel...
Here’s what I’ve been writing about on my paid sites: How to tell when the bond bear market is finally at the door
Let me share a post that I put up last night on my paid sites about when the great bull market in bonds will finally turn into the great bear market in bonds. Yes, that’s sites. Plural. I’ve been busy building a second site, JugglingWithKnives.com, that...
Ahead of the Fed meeting, Wall Street wonders if Fed might hike 4 times in 2017
With the Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates at its Wednesday, Wall Street is re-thinking its assumptions about the Fed’s actions on rates for the rest of 2017. Way back in December when the U.S. central bank raised interest rates for the first time,...
Oil falls below $50; market rethinks Trump reflation trades
West Texas Intermediate was down 2.74% to $48.90 a barrel today as of noon New York time. International benchmark Brent crude was lower by 2.60% to $51.73 a barrel. The drop in West Texas Intermediate brought the price per barrel below the psychologically important...
Another down day for U.S. stocks–consensus still saying that’s a good thing
U.S. stocks closed slightly lower again today, making this week three for three on the down side. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was off by 0.2% at the close and the Dow tripped lower by 0.33%. The Russell 2000 small company index was down 0.64%. But...
Here’s what I’ve been writing about on my paid sites: Biotech stocks dipping just before medical meeting schedule gets heavy
Let me share a post about a trading opportunity that I put up today on my paid sites. Yes, that’s sites. Plural. I’ve been busy building a second site, JugglingWithKnives.com, that parallels the focus of my book Juggling With Knives on volatility. If you...
China’s growth target: More of the same but a little less
China’s government has announced its new economic growth target for 2017. At “around” 6.5% it’s just a bit lower than the 2016 target of 6.5% to 7%. China’s GDP grew by 6.7% in 2016. The slight decline in the headline growth target is...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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