Odds of a Fed interest rate increase move up–for December
Yesterday’s report of a slight uptick in inflation has pushed odds higher for a December interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve. The report, however, had no effect on odds in the Fed Funds Futures market for an increase at the Fed’s September 20...
Here we go again: Oil supply and demand “near” to balancing
If you think you’ve heard this before, you’re absolutely right. Nonetheless, oil rallied today on a forecast from the International Energy Agency that oil stockpiles in developed countries could hit or fall below their five-year average “very...
Financials continue to rally in wake of reports of less damage than expected in Florida from Irma
Yesterday forecasts of lower than expected damage from Hurricane Irma were enough to light a fire under shares of insurance companies, the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) and the market as a whole. Yesterday shares of Swiss RE and Munich RE, two re-insurers that...
Adding a gold ETF on today’s drop in the metal on hurricane, North Korea relief
I’m adding the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) to my Jubak Picks and Volatility portfolios today. Gold has sold off today with worries over a new missile test from North Korea in abeyance. And with traders relieved–and apparently surprised–to discover...
It’s a new month but the same old Congress–as a debt-ceiling deal descends into usual chaos
Please extend the greeting of your choice to the U.S. Congress, back in “action” today after a long August recess. This morning Democrats said they would vote for a disaster relief package for victims of Hurricane Harvey if Republicans attached the measure...
The bond market gets nervous about the debt ceiling and other DC shenanigans
You wouldn’t know that there was anything to worry about from the U.S. stock market. So what that the President of the United States has threatened to shut down the government unless Congress funds The Wall. So what that the promised tax cuts so near and dear to...
Quiet day so far but trends intact under surface
A very subdued market so far (at 2 p.m. New York time) today. Maybe its the solar eclipse. After all who wants to put on a long position when the sun is about to be eaten by dragons? As of 2 p.m. the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was up just 0.06%. But...
Market sinks; volatility climbs on strong economic news, D.C. chaos
The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed down 1.54% today and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.94%. Gold picked up 0.87%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) broke above 15 again, soaring 31.94% on the day. There was just too much for the markets to...
Not a lot of conviction today: Markets refuse to bounce or to fall farther
Each rally today was greeted with selling. Every dip resulted in a recovery. U.S. equity markets refused to go much of anywhere today after yesterday’s big sell off. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, for example, finished the day up 0.13% at...
Market goes from worried to freaked out today
U.S. President Donald Trump threatening North Korea with fire and fury was certainly enough to worry global stock markets yesterday. Taunts from North Korea overnight and a promise from that country to drop four missiles into the waters off Guam sometime around the...
Good luck on getting that done: Debt ceiling truce looks to be over (if it ever really existed)
Back on August 2–you know, a week ago–it looked like, maybe, raising the debt ceiling wouldn’t be impossible after all. Sure time was short, very short. There were only 12 working days when both houses of Congress were in session before Treasury...
Haven assets in demand after day of heated rhetoric on North Korea and nukes
Not surprisingly haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen are up today. So are volatility measures such as the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX.) Surprisingly, the rush to safety hasn’t been as strong as you might expect after a day when...
Why the huge intraday swing in stocks? The reason matters
At the end of the day, the move in the Standard & Poor’s 500 wasn’t all that large–just a drop of 0.24% to 2474.92. (Although these days, that’s a big decline for U.S. stocks. You have to go back to the beginning of July to find a bigger...
Chesapeake Energy beats and then shares drop–it’s tough being a natural gas stock right now
There’s really nothing wrong with Chesapeake Energy (CHK) that an increase in natural gas prices wouldn’t fix. Yesterday, August 3, Chesapeake reported second quarter earnings of 18 cents a share after subtracting one-time events. In the second quarter of...
Higher production and lower capital spending–that’s the picture from U.S. oil shale producers
The earnings reports from U.S. oil shale producers are painting a very uniform picture so far: Production was up in the second quarter; capital spending budgets will be reduced for the remainder of 2017; and despite those capital spending cuts production is expected...
What happened in the markets (and economy) last week–and what it means for August and September
Let’s try to put together a few events from last week into a coherent (or, if that’s too much to hope, at least a semi-coherent) explanation for where the equity market stands now. What events, you ask? How about Friday’s report on second quarter GDP...
Oil rallies for another day on inventory drop in EIA report
The July 26 report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration followed up on the surprisingly good news yesterday on U.S. crude inventories from the American Petroleum Institute. The numbers from the American Petroleum Institute showed a much bigger than expected...
Worry about central banks gains weight
Today it’s JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon telling a conference in Paris that the unwinding of central bank bond-buying programs is an unprecedented challenge that may be more disruptive than people think. Tomorrow (and Thursday) it’s Federal Reserve...
Today’s positive economic data help stabilize stocks
Lots of economic data this morning. None fall into the earthshaking category. But the general picture is positive. And that has helped stabilize stocks in New York. Â Economic Summary: Personal Income outpaces spending in May, Chicago PMI well above expectations On the...
Yesterday’s tech stock rally evaporates this morning
Yesterday’s rally in technology stocks and the NASDAQ Composite has disappeared this morning. At 12:30 New York time the NASDAQ was off 1.6%; the Technology Sector Select SPDR (XLK) was down 1.72%; and individual technology stocks were also in the red. Amazon...
Yesterday IMF gave up on Trump reflation trade; today financial markets say, Not yet
Yesterday the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 2.1% for 2017 (from 2.3%) and to 2.1% in 2018 (from 2.5%.) The fund had included a likely infrastructure spending bill and a tax cut/tax reform package in its earlier forecast....
Familiar downside pattern for technology stocks and NASDAQ–is worry spreading to the wider market?
Once again the technology sector moved up, very modestly, in morning trading and then fell into the close. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) saw its high for the dy around 11 a.m. New York time and then dropped into the close at $55.08, a loss of 1.64% for...
Oil rebounds as long positions evaporate, shorts climb
Hedge funds and other money managers have cut their long positions on crude futures to the lowest level since November, according to the U.S. Commodities Trading Commission, for the week ended on June 20. At the same time short positions, which are bets that oil...
Up out of the gate, technology stocks then stall
What to make of this morning’s action in the technology and financial sectors? The two sectors raced ahead right after the opening bell, helping drive the Standard & Poor’s 500 to an early 0.5% gain. But that gain quickly faded as these...
Oil gets a breather today, so far, but what will turn around the bear?
A month ago when OPEC extended its production cuts to to the end of 2017, Saudi Arabia promised to do “whatever it takes” to stabilize oil prices. Now it’s not at all clear what the Saudi’s can do. The dual problem is rising production from...
Maybe just enough economic data this week to concern a market worried about growth
This week is a kind of mini-referendum on the Federal Reserve, the U.S. economy, and oil prices. Think of it one where some chickens come home to roost. (Hence the photo.) It’s not a big week for economic data but what there is is suggestive. On Wednesday, for...
Tech slide continues, casting doubt on “buy on the dip” strength
Anyone who bought technology stocks on the dip last Friday and Monday is feeling unhappy today. And that spells a worried market. Especially since key stocks in the sector such as Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) are showing signs of breaking through important support....
Tech stocks down again but not a replay of Friday rout
Set off, or certainly encouraged, by a downgrade of Apple (AAPL) to neutral from buy at Mizuho Securities, tech stocks continued Friday’s retreat. But the speed of the drop has been much more measured during the first half of the trading day in New York. The...
A Fed interest rate increase in June? Consumer spending says, Yes; Inflation slowdown says, Maybe
Consumer spending picked up in April, signaling that growth in the economy as a whole is headed for a rebound after a weak first quarter. Purchases increased by 0.4% in April, matching projections from economists surveyed by Bloomberg, after a 0.3% gain in March, the...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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