Fed signals “maybe”on four interest rate hikes in 2018 but stocks stabilize anyway after yesterday’s drop
As expected the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting of the Open Market Committee. But in its post-meeting statement, the last in the chair for Janet Yellen, the central bank added language that points toward a slightly more...
The march to a yield of 2.7% on the 10-year Treasury has set off nervous market chatter–and a retreat in stock prices today
When is high too high? The U.S. stock market has been a real champ at sailing past the prospect of higher interest rates to new high after new high. But the march of the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has led to a pause for thought among traders and investors. The...
Full reverse: Dollar recovers as President Trump talks up advantages of strong currency
Today somebody in the Trump administration decided that the idea of the world’s biggest debtor nation talking down the value of its currency–as Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin did yesterday at the World Economic Forum in Davos–might be a bad...
Dollar slump continues this morning as ECB president Draghi shrugs off euro strength
The dollar continued its fall this morning after European Central Bank president Marie Draghi voiced minimal concern over the rise in the euro. That currency topped $1.25 for the first time since 2014. The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index jumped 0.9%, its biggest...
Trump administration pushes a weak dollar at Davos
Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin gave the markets a green light to push the U.S. dollar lower in remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Currency traders, already on board the lower-dollar train, didn’t waste time before pushing the throttle. The Dollar...
How much higher will a surge in new Treasury supply push bond yields? How about 2.9% on 10-year Treasuries by the end of 2018?
Another date to put on your investing calendar: January 31. That’s when the U.S. Treasury is scheduled to announced how it plans to finance the government’s huge revenue shortfall over the next three months. The betting on Wall Street is that the...
I never like to see this kind of big intraday reversal–but it’s not that serious YET
U.S. stocks came racing out of the gates on strength in overseas markets with the Dow Jones Industrial Average trading at 26,000–283 points higher than the Friday close at one point during the day. Then came the plunge as indexes gave back all their gains and...
What will the tax cut bill do to house prices in 2018 and beyond? That’s a big deal for your portfolio
Back on January 10 when I wrote the post “Are we witnessing a market melt up? on my two subscriptions sites JubakAM.com and JuggingWithKnives.com I noted that I didn’t feel that I could move on to rebalancing individual portfolios until I’ve dealt...
Two-year Treasury yield back to 2%, rate not seen since global financial crisis
Some mornings I have to dig for a lead new story. Other days I’ve got candidates crawling out of the woodwork like roaches in a dirty kitchen when the lights are off. Today I’ve got lots and lots of choices. I’m gong to begin with the bond market...
Inventories drop, oil prices kiss $70 a barrel
U.S. crude oil inventories fell by a surprising large 4.95 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced this morning. This took international benchmark Brent crude up as high as $70 a barrel during trading on Thursday before closing...
China officials said to recommend slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasuries
Just what an already jittery bond market needs: reports that senior Chinese officials reviewing the country’s purchases or U.S. Treasuries have recommended slowing of halting that buying. It’s not clear from these reports whether the recommendation is...
A much better day than modest gains in the indexes indicate
The Standard & Poor’s 500 finished up 0.29% today. The tech- and bank-heavy NASDAQ Composite was up 0.54%. The Small Cap Russell 2000 was ahead 0.79%. Always good to finish to the upside, of course, when you’re looking for the end of a dip (and...
I hope you weren’t expecting clarity from today’s market
In my Morning Briefing post published on my JubakAM.com subscription site around noon (and on this site around 8 p.m.)today I said it would be critical to see if the early slight move up in the prices of stocks in technology and other risky sectors held through the...
Was today the end of the market wobble?
Today the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index added 0.8%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed to a new all time high, and the Russell 2000 small cap index rose 1.6%. The action put an end to what I’d call a “market wobble” that had seen the...
Nektar soared today on cancer drug data–but remember that new opioid? That’s why I say “Buy” in Jubak Picks even after this run
Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) shares finished the day up 14.15% on fairly preliminary, but very important data from the trials of the company’s lead cancer drug. Those results go a long way to validating the company’s entire pipeline of drug candidates to...
U.S. stocks “jittery” today on tax cut uncertainty
Jittery. That’s how I’d characterize action on U.S. stock markets today. As of just before 4 p.m., the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was off 0.32%. The NASDAQ Composite was lower by 0.56%. And the small cap Russell 2000 was down 0.46%. These...
OPEC raises global oil demand forecast–and its projection for U.S. shale production
I can’t resist: It’s the classic good news/bad news set up. Good news for oil prices: Â OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2021 by 2.3 million barrels a day above last year’s projection. It also raised its oil demand forecast in 2040 by...
Nothing like a purge in Saudi Arabia to send oil prices higher
It’s not so much that the anti-corruption crackdown launched by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over the week signals any significant change in the kingdom’s oil policies. It’s just that any turmoil in Saudi Arabia sends oil traders scrambling...
Tesla flunks today’s earnings report on both car production rate and cash burn
It’s not clear what is the bigger piece of bad news in today’s third quarter earnings report from Tesla (TSLA). You pick. Was it the amazing cash burn or the admission that the company still couldn’t produce its Model 3. The second? Okay. Tesla...
My last post setting up my new Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio–and your last chance to get 2 weeks free and then 20% off a subscription
I’ve named the five ETFs in this portfolio. Explained my ideas on allocation money among those five ETFs and their associated asset classes. And discussed the importance of knowing what index an ETF follows. Now it’s time to explain one last thing to...
Can Apple, Facebook, Alibaba keep the earnings bandwagon rolling?
Another very heavy week for earnings will reach a crescendo on Thursday, November 2. The excitement isn’t surprising after the huge earnings that Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Intel (INTC) delivered this past Thursday, October 26. This...
China’s stocks fall on fears that government won’t intervene as vigorously now that the 19th Party Congress is over
Over night Chinese stocks fell the most since early August. Sovereign bonds led the way lower, extending a monthlong retreat on fears that the government will step up efforts to reduce leverage in the financial system. The Shanghai Composite was down by as much as...
AMD earnings were supposed to be a bellwether for Nvidia–let’s hope not
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported third quarter earnings yesterday, October 24, of 10 cents a share (excluding one-time items). That was better than the Wall Street consensus of 8 cents for the quarter. Revenue grew 257% to $1.64 billion in the quarter, surpassing...
A wild week for earnings announcements
Enough changes in direction this week in earnings reports to keep your head spinning. We go from earnings results from the “old economy” to tech behemoths to Big Oil. This week starts off with a truckload of earnings reports from bellwethers of the...
Any surprises for investors in the Communist Party Congress that starts tomorrow in China?
On the one hand, the results of the 19th Communist Party Congress that begins tomorrow are completely predictable. Current president Xi Jinping will be elected to a new five-year term and when the dust has cleared from the once-every-five-years turnover of 70% of the...
Brazil’s stock market sees light at the end of the tunnel–I agree and am adding ETF EWZS to my Volatility Portfolio today
You can read this post by taking me up on my offer for a free two-week trial to either of my paid subscription sites, JugglingwithKnives.com or JubakAM.com. You’ll find the Volatility Portfolio–along with all my other portfolios including the recently...
Why a portfolio of “passive” ETFs requires active management by you–announcing my new ETF portfolio to do just that
Can I clear up one bit of confusion? ETFs are indeed passively managed investment vehicles. Their portfolios passively follow indexes rather than allocating money into the picks of a fund manager. But portfolios of ETFs put together by investors aren’t–and...
Tech breakdown starts to look serious
The conventional wisdom at the end of last week was that we were witnessing a rotation out of tech shares and into financials and small cap stocks. In other words, nothing to get  too concerned about. Apple (AAPL) was a special case as surveys of retail channels...
China’s credit rating takes a hit from S&P
Standard & Poor’s lowered its credit rating on China’s sovereign debt by one step to A+ on Thursday. The cut is the first ratings reduction since 1999. S&P cited the risks from the growing debt levels in China’s government and corporate sector as...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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