Selling copper pick Freeport McMoran on fears of U.S./China tariff war
Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold (FCX) was the third and last copper stock I added to my portfolios back in January 12, 2018–after Southern Copper (SCCO) and First Quantum Minerals (FQMLF). I added so much copper since copper prices were soaring in 2017–up...
China retaliates on tariffs; U.S. stocks fall again
It’s always hard to attribute a market move to one particular news event, but today the odds are good that this morning’s plunge in stock prices is in reaction to China’s decision to impose tariffs on 128 U.S. products in response to the Trump...
U.S. stocks rally on good economic news and end of the quarter window dressing
U.S. stocks are up as of 1:30 p.m. today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is ahead 0.95% and the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index is up 1.08%. Two reasons for this, I think, and the second is more important today. First, we had a raft of positive economic...
Amazon tanks after report that President Trump wants to “go after” the company
Well, why not? Shares of Amazon (AMZN) were down as much as 7.4% after Axios reported that President Donald Trump is “obsessed” with regulating the company and has discussed changing the way the company collects (or doesn’t) sales tax. The stock...
“Smart Money” and shorts are skeptical on Monday rally
The Smart Money Flow Index shows that professional money managers remain skeptical of the rally. The index is near a two-year low and advanced only 1.2% on Monday, a day that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average move up 2.8%. (The Smart Money Flow Index tracks moves...Goldman Sachs turns bullish on gold
Goldman Sachs has turned positive on gold for the first time in five years. Â “Our commodities team believes that the dislocation between the gold prices and U.S. rates is here to say,” Goldman Sachs says. Drivers for higher gold prices include signs of an...
Reasons to worry about this bounce
Of course, it would be great (if you’re long U.S. stocks) if today’s bounce marked the beginning of a recovery to the record highs in place before last week’s plunge. But… It’s very early in this bounce. It’s typical for a bounce to...
Cracking the nutty asset correlations of this market
This morning provided a great example of how confusing and complicated correlations among asset classes are in the current market. Stocks rallied with the Standard & Poor’s 500 up 1.15% as of 11 a.m. New York time and the Dow Industrial Average ahead 1.7%....
Sell the rally is the new Wall Street practice
Twice today investors and traders sold an intraday rally.  Think we might have a pattern here? After hitting a 0.38% gain at 11 a.m. New York time, the Standard  & Poor’s 500 went into a steady decline.  Then, after having rallied by 2 p.m. to just below...
U.S. stocks slip after early gains; global markets take trade war to heart
U.S. stocks started the day in the green with the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index up 0.44% as of 9:33 a.m. New York time. The index was still in the green as of 11 a.m. (up 0.38%) but then came the retreat. As of 11:30 a.m. the S&P 500 was off 0.37%....
So what’s behind today’s plunge in U.S. stocks?
Okay, so the announcement of U.S. tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods didn’t help the market today. But U.S. stocks, which had been down 1.30% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 at 11 a.m. and down 1.38% for the Dow Jones Industrials, didn’t...
Fed raises interest rates and marks steeper path on future increases
Well, it wasn’t unexpected so stocks didn’t plunge. But it is still close to what the financial markets feared. Today, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark short term interest rate another 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%.  And forecast a...
Oil up strongly this morning on inventory draw down
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported this morning that U.S. crude oil inventories fell 2.62 million barrels for the week ended March 16. Â Last week inventories rose by 5 million barrels. Â As of 11:20 a.m. New York time U.S. benchmark West Texas...
I think they’re really going to do it: My odds on the Trump administration targeting China in a tariff war went up to 70% today
Today the White House announced  that President Donald Trump has picked Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn as director of the White House National Economic Council. Kudlow worked as an economic advisor to President Reagan where he was a dedicated believer in...
Retail sales fall in February raising possibility that fourth quarter GDP growth was lower than initially reported
U.S. retail sales fell for a third straight month in February–down 0.1%. The Commerce Department revised January sales higher than the initially reported 0.3% decline. But that still left January sales down 0.1%. That means that February marks a third...
10-year Treasury yield back to 2.87% as market decides wage inflation isn’t likely to push the Fed to three rate increases in 2018
Traders and investors decided today that the Federal Reserve’s semiannual monetary policy report to Congress is wrong and that Wall Street’s own seers are right about wage-driven inflation. The Fed’s report, delivered to Congress today, makes it...
Federal Reserve minutes show bank upping estimates of growth in 2018–and projecting need for more interest rate increases
Today’s release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January 30-31 meeting show the central bank estimating economic growth at 2.5% for 2018 and noting that the outlook for stronger economic growth raised the likelihood for continued, gradual interest...
10-year Treasury climbs to 2.91% on less than enthusiastic bills auction
Not a good way to begin if you have to sell $441 billion in net debt in the first quarter of 2018. This morning the U.S. Treasury sold $96 billion of short-term bills at yields unseen since 2008. At auction the government sold $51 billion of three-month bills at a...
Big earnings report from MGM Resorts before the market open tomorrow
Tomorrow’s earnings report from MGM Resorts International (MGM) could be make or break for the call options that I hold on this stock in my Volatility Portfolio. The options have been all over the block in recent weeks from up 50% to down 30% on market...
Get ready for the deluge in the Treasury market this week
With the U.S. financial markets closed for Presidents’ Day and with markets in China and Hong Kong still closed for the Lunar New Year, it’s a slow news day for stocks and bonds today. But get ready for the action to resume on Tuesday with much of the...
What we learned in this rout: This is what a late stage market looks like
Before this market rout and from the safety of the World Economic Forum in Davos, hedge fund legend Ray Dalio talked about the coming bear market in bonds and likelihood that we were near the end of this cycle of economic boom. Sometime in the next two years, he...
V bottom or double top before deeper correction
As of yesterday the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index had climbed 5.8% in the last five trading sessions. That recouped much of the 9.03% drop (not quite an official correction of 10% or more) from January 26 through Februry 8. Which, of course, raises the...
More evidence today that inflation is creeping higher
No index here with the headline clout of yesterday’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) but the message from three indexes today reinforces the story in yesterday’s CPI data: inflation pressures are increasing. The Empire State Manufacturing prices-paid index...
Higher long-term volatility lurks in widening spread of interest rate forecasts
Today Goldman Sachs projected that the yield on the Treasury 10-year note will climb as high as 3.5% in the next six months. In addition, the Wall Street giant told Bloomberg, the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates four times in 2018. The yield on the 10-year...
A constructive day but the short-term key remains CPI inflation on Wednesday
The Standard & Poor’s 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both finished in the green today, up 1.39% and 1.70%, respectively, after having held off a bout of selling around 3:46 p.m. New York time. Volatility also made progress on returning to normal....
Chinese stocks bounce back on better than expected but still tight liquidity
As is so often the case, liquidity was the driver for Chinese stock today, Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.78% to 3,154.13 points by the close of trading Monday, after initially falling 0.45% during the morning. Two indexes with more exposure to...
China slides into correction too: Are Chinese stocks better buy on the dip candidates?
While our eyes have been glued to the volatility in U.S. markets, Chinese stocks have staged their own correction. The Shanghai Composite is down 12.1% from its high on January 24 to the low on Thursday, February 8. With the Lunar New Year and the week-long Spring...
The financial markets are in shock at Washington’s debt plans
Notice that the signing of a bill early this morning to keep the government open and to fund operations for two years hasn’t resulted in a serious rally in either stocks or bonds. As of 11:30 a.m. New York time the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 0.18%, or...
On my JubakAM.Com subscription site, I just added an ETF for the bond bear market–and today’s meltdown
The logic is pretty simple–I think the rise in yields on Treasuries and the anticipated rise in interest rates from the Federal Reserve that sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 650 points today isn’t over. There’s just too much...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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