Ominous weakening today, September 6, below the surface in U.S. stocks
I know it looks like nothing much happened in the U.S. stock market today, Thursday, September 6. After all the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was off just 0.37% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was actually head by 0.08%. But below the surface,...
Will today’s profit-taking turn into something worse?
I think today’s market downturn is nothing more or less than profit taking. It’s not surprising that investors and traders would sell Amazon (AMZN), for example, today (down 2.19%) since the shares were up 11.6% for the past 30 days as of September 4. The...
U.S. trade deficit climbs in July, deficit with China hits a record
Today, Wednesday September 5, the Department of Commerce reported that the U.S. trade deficit climbed to $50.1 million in July. (Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a deficit of $50.2 billion.) That was up from $45.7 billion in June and the largest increase...
Is Spain most exposed developed market to emerging market woes?
In the Greek debt crisis it was relatively easy to track the exposure of national financial markets and banks to the crisis. The big issue was what non-Greek banks had bought the biggest share of Greek government bonds. In the current emerging market crisis,...
Emerging market crisis pulls in India, Indonesia
The bad news is that the emerging market crisis that has sent financial markets plummeting in Argentina, Turkey, and Brazil has added India and Indonesia to its list of victims. The good news is that the inclusion of India and Indonesia is exactly what analysts and...
White House lines up another $200 billion in China tariffs for next week
Just in case you were worried that the days after the Labor Day market holiday might be boring, well, worry no more. Sources in the White House are saying that President Donald Trump plans to move on tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese imports quickly...
Core consumer inflation climbs at a 2.3% annual rate in July numbers
Granted the Federal Reserve watches the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index to measure inflation, but the big jump in the July Consumer Price Index should remove the last doubts (if any remain) about a September interest rate increase from the Fed. The headline...
More trade sanctions today–this time it’s Russia (with big implications for global oil supply)
The United States has imposed new sanctions on Russia as punishment for that country’s use of nerve agents in a March 4 attack on former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in the United Kingdom. The sanctions are required under the 1991 Chemical and Biological...
Another day, another retaliatory tariff
Today the Chinese Commerce Ministry announced 25% tariffs on an additional $16 billion in U.S. exports. The tariffs will go into effect on August 23 and target cars, crude oil, medical instruments, natural gas, and coal along with hundreds of other items.. The tariffs...
Is 10-year yield above 3% finally here to stay? U.S. Treasury raises targets for debt sales in second half of 2018
Yesterday the Treasury Department said that it will raise long-term debt issuance to $78 billion this quarter. That would be an increase from the $73 billion in sales last quarter and the third consecutive quarterly increase. The increased sales of Treasury debt are...
Fed statement today cements September interest rate increase
Today Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate at 1.75% to 2.00% and described the U.S. economy in terms that make an interest rate increase at the central bank’s September 26 meeting a virtual certainty (absent some startling news event). The CME...
This market’s volatility puzzle–it’s as if investors and traders don’t think risk is climbing in the general market
Facebook (FB) falls almost 20%. Netflix (NFLX) tumbles 14%. Twitter (TWTR) is down 21% on earnings. Intel (INTC) finished today down 9%. And yet the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures the price that traders are willing to pay to hedge risk VIX, the so-called...
Amazon to the earnings rescue after Facebook plunge
A day after Facebook (FB) told Wall Street analysts to expect slower growth for the rest of 2018 (and saw its stock plunge 18.96%) Amazon (AMZN) beat Wall Street earnings projections by a massive $2.58 a share, reporting earnings for the second quarter of $5.07 versus...
Facebook closes down 18.96% on the day
Golly gee, what could be the big story in the U.S. markets today? How about the rout in Facebook (FB) shares–down 18.96% or $41.24 to $176 at the close. That $112 billion dollar drop in the market value of Facebook gives the company the record for the largest...
It’s earnings disappointment day for U.S. industrials
Or, more precisely, it was guidance disappointment day as big U.S. industrials such as General Motors (GM), Pentair (PNR), and Boeing (BA) reported earnings and then issued guidance for the rest of 2018. Earnings for the quarter were, generally, fine. General Motors,...
U.S. stocks keep climbing but is the rally narrowing?
The major indexes were up today on Alphabet’s (GOOG) huge quarter, reported yesterday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed ahead 0.48% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.79% at the close. Alphabet itself finished the day with a...
Is a dip in home sales a “canary in a coal mine” for economy?
Existing home sales fell 0.6% month-over-month in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million. The consensus among economists surveyed by Briefing.com called for an annual rate of 5.45 million units. The May sales rate was revised down to a 5.41 million...
Dollar falls as President Trump criticizes Federal Reserve policy again
For a second straight day President Donald Trump has tweeted out criticism of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision to raise interest rates. In his tweets today the President wrote: “China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their...
Testing the rally: Netflix beats on earnings but lowers guidance
This is exactly the scenario I’ve been worried about. Now let’s see how the market reacts tomorrow. Today, after the market close, Netflix (NFLX) reported second quarter earnings of 85 cents a share that beat the consensus analyst projection of $79 cents....
China slows a “wee bit”–but that’s too much for an already nervous market
Growth in China’s economy has slipped to the lowest rate since 2016. Which isn’t huge negative news except that Chinese financial markets are already nervous enough to have pushed Chinese stocks into a bear market. In the second quarter of 2018 annual...
Reaction to JPM Chase earnings today small red flag for continued earnings season rally
The reaction to Wells Fargo (WFC) earnings released before the open this morning was perfectly fitting. The bank lagged its peers again on key metrics (revenue fell 3.1% year over year and earnings per share were down 9% as average loans fell 1%) and the stock was...
U.S. threatens huge escalation in tariff war with China
At 12:01 a.m. last night higher U.S. tariffs went into effect on $34 billion in Chinese goods. China immediately retaliated with higher tariffs on U.S. exports such as autos and soybeans. The Trump administration already has tariffs on another $16 billion in Chinese...
Second quarter GDP forecasts start to come back to earth
Not so long ago major economic forecasts such as the GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank were calling for second quarter U.S. GDP to grow at an annual rate of better than 4%. That was extraordinarily strong growth and it fit in with forecasts from...
Government via Twitter: What did the Saudi’s actually say about increasing oil production?
On Saturday President Donald Trump wrote on Twitter that in a phone call with King Salman Saudi Arabia had agreed to increase oil production “maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels” in response to turmoil in Iran and Venezuela. The Saudi government has acknowledged that the...
My baseline U.S. stock market scenario for the next 30 days
So much negative uncertainty from big possible events. Such strong short term earnings fundamentals. How will these all balance out? Before I get to my take on the answer to that question let’s take a brief stop to look at what a baseline scenario is and why...
Today the markets decide that this “trade stuff” isn’t just a negotiating ploy
Last week the market consensus was that all the moves to raise U.S. tariffs on goods from China, the European Union, Canada, and everyone else in the world–were just parts of a negotiating strategy by President Donald Trump. Certainly we weren’t on the...
So much for that U.S-China trade truce
The Trump administration has announced higher tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese export and promised additional restrictions on Chinese investments. China immediately promised to impose tariffs with “equal scale, equal intensity” on U.S. exports. The...
An interest rate sign of our times–3% on a CD
So there I was, minding my own business, walking down Broadway in my neighborhood, and what do I see in the window of a local bank: An offer for 3% on a five-year CD. Now this wasn’t in the window of one of the megabanks that dominate this sector in New York....
Markets today “seem” to say North Korea summit more important than G7 explosion
At 2 p.m. New York time the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was up 0.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was ahead 0.22%. And the NASDAQ Composite index had inched higher by 0.27%. Which is surprising given that the Group of 7 meeting ended Saturday with...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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