Is a new, Chinese bid for Potash of Saskatchewan about to arrive?
This week or next will see a bid from China for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT), Canada’s Globe and Mail is reporting. The newspaper’s sources say Beijing is now deciding which of the proposed bids from China’s state-owned companies it should back. Pending Chinese...Selling $81 billion in Petrobras stock may create bargains–elsewhere in Brazil
Call it the Petrobras effect: The planned sale of $75 billion—whoops, hold that—yesterday Petrobras announced it would sell an additional $6 billion–in stock by Petrobras (PBR) is weighing down the entire Brazilian stock market. And statements like this by Jeff...Japan's intervention to drive down the yen is more dangerous than it looks–remember Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression?
It’s starting to feel a little bit like June 1930. And that’s worrying. In that month President Herbert Hoover, despite deep misgivings, signed the Tariff Act of 1930, known as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff after its two authors, into law. By raising U.S. tariffs, the act...Stocks take out the top of the trading range today
(On normal market days, I publish everything first–usually by three days or so–on my subscription newsletter Jubak Asset Management (Jubakam.com). But on days when the market moves big–up or down–or when there’s some breaking news that...Even higher reserve requirements on the way for China's banks?
That didn’t take long. Just a few days after data showed that China’s banks were making new loans at a rate that would make a joke out of the government’s target of no more than $1.1 trillion in new loans in 2010, the country’s banking regulators are at work on a...Jubak Global Equity Fund now available through Vanguard
The Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX) may be less than a quarter old, but we’re already got an announcement to make. We’re working hard! A lot of you said that you’d invest in the fund if you could do it through a brokerage account at Schwab or Fidelity or Vanguard or...Lots of dividends but very little yield: An add and a drop for the Dividend Income portfolio
It’s raining dividends. Or at least thoughts of dividends. First time ever dividends from companies that have never offered dividends. On September 14, Cisco Systems (CSCO) CEO John Chambers said the company is considering a 1% to 2% dividend for the fiscal year that...What a surprise! Basel III bank regulations aren't as strict as feared and bank stocks rally
Bank stocks love the compromise from the bank regulators putting the Basel III rules for the global banking sector. Bank shares were up across the world on September 13, the day after global bank regulators released the draft of the new rules. The biggest gains to...China's manufacturing picks up–maybe.
But what does it mean? Time to get out the thumbscrews and the Spanish boot and torture the data. Numbers released on September 1 showed manufacturing rebounding in China for August after a weak July. It could mean that China’s “slowdown” won’t be as slow as feared....China's regulators to China's banks: Liar, liar, pants on fire
Even China’s banking regulators don’t believe these numbers. And now they’re saying so in public. Concerned about run-away lending at the country’s banks, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, has asked them to conduct an increasingly harrowing series of stress...Now it' Spain's turn to depress the euro
More worries for the euro. This time from Spanish politics. Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero has set a September 30 deadline for announcing his government’s budget plan. Investors want to see a combination of taxes and spending that reduces Spain’s budget...China's banks start to samba with Petrobras deal
Another sign of how fast the global financial markets are changing. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY.PK) will be one of the investment banks running the book for the $32 billion share offering of Petrobras (PBR). This will be the first time a Chinese...Is the economy stronger than the numbers say?
There’s good reason to suspect that the early September rally that began on September 1 is going to peter out. From 1049 at the close on August 31, the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index had climbed 7% by September 13. That’s 7% in just seven trading sessions. It’s...Don't get too excited about the euro: Greek crisis still isn't over
Almost a year after the Greek government admitted it had lied about the size of its budget deficit and national accounts, setting off the euro crisis, and four months after a $140 billion bailout “solved” the Greek crisis the European Union still doesn’t trust Greek...Look for another wave of bank acquisitions
Banks are about to start scrambling for capital again. In the United States that means it will be hunting season for banks looking to make acquisitions. But because they’re bumping up against rules that limit individual U.S. banks to 10% of national deposits, the...Want to know what to own for the next rally? Use this market as a dry run
Think of the huge jump in stocks on Wednesday, September 1, as a dry run for the eventual stock market rally. I don’t think that rally is here yet. I think the move that began on September 1 was a bounce, a very welcome bounce but still a bounce, as the extreme...Inflation pauses in Brazil and so does the central bank; look for that to keep Brazil's economy cooking
Inflation is falling in Brazil. Through for the 30-day period through mid-August consumer inflation was just 4.44%. That’s the first time since January that inflation has been below the government’ target of 4.5%. Now the question is How long will the improvement...Just what Citigroup doesn't need–more questions about its capital
Exactly how well capitalized is Citigroup (C)? That’s a question that the Financial Times raised on September 7. The answer, the paper reported, depends on not so much on who’s counting the beans, but on who’s deciding what beans count. At issue is something...A banking recovery for big banks only?
Increasingly the U.S. banking story is a tale of two sectors. For big banks, it’s the best of times. Well, at least, a very tasty recovery. For small banks, it’s, if not the worst of times, still pretty grim. And the discrepancy is still growing. The 7,000 banks...If you're looking for a slowing real estate market in China, you sure won't find it in Hong Kong
Traders and investors hoping that China will soon loosen financial restrictions designed to cool China’s real estate market won’t find any good news in the August 30 land auction in Hong Kong. A parcel in Kowloon Tong went for $165 million in an auction run by Hong...More gloom and doom on Japan? I can't wait (Well, actually I can but November seems a good time to buy)
On August 30, the Bank of Japan, the country’s central bank, announced a major new program of monetary stimulus. The governor of the bank even flew back from the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole conclave for the world’s central bankers. The Japanese government announced...Iron ore prices retreat by 12% and iron ore mining stocks say, So what?, and move higher
It’s hard to imagine this happening with any other “product.” The price of the product drops 12% for the next quarter. And the stock market essentially shrugs it off. On a bad day for the market, August 30, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index drops by...Nestle's got a pile of cash, good growth prospects, and a stock price that's a tad too high
Nestle (NSRGY), the largest food company in the world, continues to slice and dice, in an effort to shed underperforming or low margin businesses and pick up higher growth, higher margin opportunities. Nestle has finished selling its last piece of Alcon, its eye-care...Cosan and Shell move, slowly, closer to creating the third largest ethanol (and from sugar cane not corn) producer in the world
It’s taking quite a while to get this one done. But the joint venture announced in February between Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) and Brazilian sugar and ethanol giant Cosan (CZZ) has finally moved to the signing of binding agreements. The deal, when completed, would create...Can anyone stop the appreciation in the yen? Not the Bank of Japan or the country's government it appears
Talk about a no-win situation: Japan’s central bank is damned if it doesn’t intervene to weaken the yen and quite possibly double-damned if it does. The Japanese yen climbed yesterday, August 31, to 83.92 to the U.S. dollar. That’s near the 15-year high for the...If the economy is so terrible, why are machinery stocks relatively strong?
Oddly enough on a day, August 31, when investors are again feeling nervous about growth, machinery stocks are showing relative strength. Among the standouts Caterpillar (CAT), Joy Global (JOYG), Bucyrus (BUCY), and Deere (DE). This group has been through a day much...China is creating bank capital out of thin air–and that's not good
You’ve got to give China’s most recent effort to increase the capital of China’s largest banks big points for chutzpah. That’s not exactly an endorsement for these banks as investments, however. Or of the soundness of China’s troubled banking system. On August 24...Got lots of cash? How about clubbing your competition with the green stuff? That's what HP seems determined to do to Dell
On the surface, bidding $2 billion for a company that hasn’t made an operating profit in the last five years looks nuts. Dig deeper, though, and the battle between Dell (DELL) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ) to buy data storage company 3Par (PAR) doesn’t look nuts. It’s...The return of worries about the PIIGS weighs on the euro
Good news: Ireland isn’t Greece. Bad news: Ireland isn’t Spain, either. At least that’s what Standard & Poor’s concluded on August 25 when it cut the credit rating on Ireland’s sovereign debt one step to AA-. S&P is worried that the cost of re-capitalizing...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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