October 29, 2010 @ 1:48 pm | Leading Indicators |
he first estimate for third quarter U.S. GDP growth came in right on projections at 2.0%. That was up from the 1.7% growth rate in the second quarter but below the 3% or so growth rate needed to cut significantly into unemployment. Housing was the big drag on the...
October 29, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Leading Indicators |
This week investors bought $10 billion in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)—and paid for the privilege of lending the Federal government money. Investors paid $105 for each $100 in face value. That reduced the yield on these bonds to a negative 0.55%....
October 28, 2010 @ 10:30 am | Leading Indicators |
Shares of E I DuPont (DD) have been in a slow retreat ever since the company announced third quarter earnings before the New York markets opened for trading on October 26. Not because of anything the company reported, in my opinion, but because in the last week or so...
October 28, 2010 @ 2:30 am | Leading Indicators |
We’re starting to see stocks drop after companies report good earnings. That’s not surprising. In fact it’s over due after a rally like this one. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index was up 13% since August 26 as of October 25. Inevitably after stocks have climbed so...
October 27, 2010 @ 2:30 pm | Leading Indicators |
Last month I argued that the headline number for durable orders—a 1% drop for August—wasn’t significant since it was driven by typical month-to-month volatility in airplane orders. The timing of twenty or so airplane orders as they fall in one month or the other can...
October 26, 2010 @ 2:16 pm | Leading Indicators |
Two economic announcements this week have the power to move stocks. And right now the consensus among economists is moving toward a belief in better than projected numbers. The big number comes on Friday, October 29, with the first estimate of third quarter GDP....
October 26, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
Woody Harrelson never stops killing zombies to ask, Should I buy more inflation protected Treasuries? With the zombies at the door, at the windows, in the car … it would be a silly question. But it’s exactly the kind of question investors have to ask. We may think the...
October 25, 2010 @ 3:04 pm | Leading Indicators |
There’s good news that’s good news for stocks: Like this morning’s (October 25) surprise jump in sales of existing homes. Sales grew by 10% to a 4.53 million annual rate in September, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s up from a 4.12 million...
October 25, 2010 @ 12:54 pm | Leading Indicators |
The next two weeks are shaping up as a critical test for the U.S. stock market. Last week a number of key technical indicators stalled in the last few days if they’re waiting for something. Today, October 25, started out with a bang but the markets have pulled off...
October 25, 2010 @ 10:30 am | Leading Indicators |
Another week, another way to invest in Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX) directly through a brokerage account. Wait, did I say another way? Strike that. This week we’re announcing five new ways that you can invest through your brokerage account: JPMorgan, Curian...
October 25, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Leading Indicators |
Will an emerging consensus on the Federal Reserve’s new program of quantitative easing take a little bit of “whoopee” out of stocks and shift the emphasis to individual corporate earnings reports. There’s been a consensus for a while that the Fed will soon announce a...
October 22, 2010 @ 2:24 pm | Leading Indicators |
Is India next? Will India be the next country to join the global currency wars? If you’re counting votes at the upcoming G20 meetings, this isn’t a minor issue. India could make the difference between agreement on a unified global response and go-it-alone...
October 22, 2010 @ 11:40 am | Leading Indicators |
PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management), BlackRock, MetLife, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Yes, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York wants its money back too) are working to force Bank of America (BAC) to buy back mortgages from its Countrywide Financial...
October 22, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Leading Indicators |
Here’s my big insight for today: U.S. banks have a big long-term problem. But not the one you’re thinking of right now. (Yes, I do have secret powers and can tell what you’re thinking—although only about bank stocks.) The headlines are full of news on robo signers,...
October 21, 2010 @ 4:30 pm | Leading Indicators |
Good news plus bad news on China’s economy added up to bad news for China’s stocks today, October 21. The good news was that China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 9.6% in the third quarter. That was slightly ahead of the 9.5% that economists surveyed by Bloomberg...
October 21, 2010 @ 3:00 pm | Leading Indicators |
Only one big surprise in Citigroup’s (C) third quarter earnings announced before the New York Stock market opened October 18. No, not the penny a share in earnings above the Wall Street estimate of 6 cents a share. A slight positive surprise certain was a high...
October 21, 2010 @ 11:02 am | Leading Indicators |
It sure is a lot more orderly than the current U.S. elections. Even if the meaning of the result remains more than a bit vague. On October 18 the central committee of China’s Communist Party appointed Xi Jinping vice chairman of the Communist Party’s military...
October 20, 2010 @ 2:50 pm | IEF, Leading Indicators |
Well, that’s one way to read it. After dropping in the first hour of trading, China’s stocks climbed,with the Shanghai Composite Index going from a 1% loss in the first hour to a 2% gain at the close. Investors and traders in China have apparently decided that...
October 20, 2010 @ 1:08 pm | Leading Indicators |
On October 16 China’s Ministry of Commerce said that the country could run out of medium and heavy rare earth reserves in 15 to 20 years at the current rate of production. Could this be true? Or is it simply justification for the country’s decision to cut export...
October 20, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Leading Indicators |
So far on China’s stock markets it’s still the same old story: Anytime the central bank raises interest rates, as it did yesterday October 19, or does anything that might slow growth or hinder asset speculation, stocks drop like a stone. Except for real estate...
October 19, 2010 @ 6:48 pm | Leading Indicators |
The race for president of Brazil continues to tighten. Probably. At least the financial markets have started to react as if the challenger actually stands a chance. The vote comes on October 31. In a Vox Populi poll released on October 13 Dilma Rousseff, candidate of...
October 19, 2010 @ 1:47 pm | Leading Indicators |
China caught global financial markets flatfooted today, October 19, by raising its benchmark interest rates for the first time since 2007. The People’s Bank of China raised its one-year lending rate to 5.56% from 5.31% and its deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points to...
October 19, 2010 @ 8:30 am | COF, Leading Indicators |
Add another word to English as spoken on Wall Street: robo signer. These are the folks at banks and mortgage servicing companies who signed hundreds of foreclosure documents a day. Frequently they didn’t read them at all. Even more frequently they didn’t bother to...
October 18, 2010 @ 5:41 pm | Leading Indicators |
If you own shares of any miner of copper, lead, tin, nickel, zinc, or aluminum, think about sending a thank you note to investment companies such as ETF Securities, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, and Credit Suisse. They’re about to make you...
October 18, 2010 @ 12:16 pm | Leading Indicators |
Lending by China’s banks rose again in September. That isn’t good news. It explains why the People’s Bank has reportedly decided to raise reserve requirements for six of China’s biggest banks another 0.5 percentage points to 17.5%. And I’ll bet that it will lead...
October 18, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Leading Indicators |
Friday’s inflation data put the last bit of icing on the quantitative-easing cake. Released on October 15, the CPI, the consumer price index, showed inflation slowing to just 0.1% in September after prices rose by 0.3% in August. The core CPI, which subtracts...
October 15, 2010 @ 3:43 pm | Leading Indicators |
It’s not as if bank stocks don’t have enough problems what with the horrible mess that they’ve made out of their mortgage business: If you can’t foreclose on a house because your paper work was signed by employees who never even read it, you’re in deep, deep trouble....
October 15, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
The Federal Reserve—with a big helping hand from the global financial crisis and the central banks of much of the rest of the developed world—has turned income investing upside down. The Fed’s near 0% short-term interest rate target has sent short-term yields for...
October 14, 2010 @ 4:07 pm | Leading Indicators |
The annual meeting of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) ended with the U.S. accusing China of keeping the yuan artificially low and with China accusing the U.S. of flood merging markets with hot money by keeping its interest rates near 0%. I think Brazil got it...
October 14, 2010 @ 1:48 pm | Leading Indicators, SYT |
The fall out continues from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s shocking turnaround on the size of this year’s corn crop. On Friday October 8 the USDA completely reversed its optimistic September 30 projection of corn production for the year and slashed its estimate...