The holiday is over for the euro–and it's back to crisis time.
The euro crisis has got as many heads as the Hydra. This week bring another involving Portugal. Last week the euro started falling again—it closed at $1.2907 on Friday but rallied slightly to $1.2951 today—and yields on Portuguese government debt moved up—the 10-year...U.S. economy adds 103,000 jobs but that's below expectations
The U.S. economy just can’t manage to turn the corner on job growth. Yes, the data on non-farm payrolls released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows continued growth in employment. But that growth continues to be very slow. Disappointingly slow. And...My five picks on the global markets to overweight in 2011
How did the stock market do in 2010? Depends. Which stock market are you talking about? The United States–where the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index climbed 15%–or Spain—down 19% for 2010? China–where the iShares FTSE China 25 was up just 3.5%...Auto sales support view U.S. economy is recovering
Look, Ma, no smoke and mirrors. Or not much anyway. That’s the best thing about the 11% growth in sales reported by automakers in the United States for December 2010 from December 2009. The seasonally adjusted annualized sales rate of 12.5 million didn’t depend on a...Inflation enters dangerous territory in the European Union–and I don't see it stopping here
Talk about getting caught between a rock and rocking the entire European Union. Inflation kicked up to an annual rate of 2.2% in December in the European Union. That’s well above the European Central Bank’s oft-stated target of an annual rate “close but below” 2%. In...It's price controls to fight supermarket inflation, China's Premier Wen promises in Mongolian supermarket
It’s an odd ritual. Something like Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney without the groundhog. At the start of the calendar year China’s Premier Wen Jiabao visits a remote corner of China, mingles with the crowds, and delivers a major message about the coming year. This year...For thrills and chills–and profits–there's nothing quite like copper (although I'd put off buying for a few weeks)
Just because your favorite roller coaster is closed for the winter season doesn’t mean you have to give up thrills and spills—there’s always the copper market. Copper hit a record high on the London Metal Exchange on January 4, and moved to a three-and-a-half year...Aussie floods push price of coal for steelmaking toward new record
Local officials are saying that the floods in the northern Australian state of Queensland have reached “biblical proportions.” The floods, a result of the wettest spring on record, have struck an area bigger than France and Germany combined. Flooding from six rivers...Beijing moves to reduce the profitability of China's big export companies
Forget about trying to outguess the People’s Bank of China on interest rate increases. On the fundamentals, China’s stocks got more expensive and less attractive for 2011 because of two end-of-the year announcements from the government in Beijing. Each announcement...China will set the tone for global stock markets in 2011 but what message are China's stocks sending now?
The Shanghai stock market is closed today, Monday January 3, to observe New Year’s Day—which gives investors a chance to catch up on the market’s rather unusual reaction to a Christmas Day interest rate increase by the People’s Bank of China.Ho, ho, ho! Time to take a few days off
The New York Stock Exchange is closed tomorrow December 24 in observance of Christmas. I’m taking a slightly longer break. My sites, JubakPicks.com and Jubakam.com, will be dark from December 24 until January 3 for caroling, wassailing, Christmas present wrapping and...GDP growth of 2.6% is a slight disappointment but better than a poke in the eye from a sharp slump
Not as good as wished, perhaps, but I’ll take it. Yesterday’s (December 22) third revision to the third quarter U.S. GDP numbers pushed growth for the quarter up to 2.6%. The first estimate had put growth at 2% and the second had bumped growth up to 2.5%. Economists...U.S. natural gas stocks will be an amazing bargain but when? How about late 2011?
So when is the time to buy U.S. natural gas stocks? A new analysis from Houston energy investment banker Tudor, Pickering, Holt, reported by Reuters Breaking Views, says late in 2011 or so. Natural gas prices in the United States are in an extended slump with gas...Should we worry less about inflation in developing economies than most investors do? I think so–because inflation is different in these economies
Inflation is absent without leave in the developed economies of the world. Morgan Stanley puts the inflation rate at 1.5% for these economies in 2010. The inflation story in the world’s developing economies is very different. There inflation will run at, Morgan...Wednesday brings the final read on Q3 GDP–economists are looking for an increase to 2.8% growth
No holiday from economic data this week. Wednesday brings what’s called the final revision of third quarter U.S. GDP growth estimates. (We’ll get the final, final figure in 2011.) The previous estimated came in at 2.5% growth, itself an increase from the first...10 stocks picks for profiting in a volatile 2011
2011 is shaping up to be a volatile year. The euro debt crisis threatens to expand to include Spain—before Greece and Ireland have moved out of danger. The U.S. economy seems to be on a path of moderate growth but the end of spending from the 2009 stimulus package in...The euro crisis isn't bad for Germany's export economy–projections call for 3.5% growth in 2010
Germany’s economy continues to motor ahead even while much of the rest of the Eurozone struggles to show any growth at all. Think that might explain a bit of the anger and resentment directed by some of its neighbors at Germany’s hard-nosed position on enlarging the...On Dasher, on Dancer, on Prancer…on Jubak?
So how about something for yourself this Christmas? Like a holiday subscription to my daily Jubak Asset Management Internet Letter, also known as JAM. I’ve created a special holiday subscription price of just $199 for a year. That’s $100 off the normal retail price....Biggest European banks about $350 billion short of Basel III capital
More bad news for European banks in the latest report from the folks charged with setting up the rules for the new Basel III rules for global banking. First, some good news. Regulators have calculated that the 94 biggest banks in the world would be about $770 billion...From bad to verse as Pogo might have said
This is a public service announcement for the musically jaded. Don’t know about you, but I start whistling Christmas carols around Halloween. By this time of year, I’ve worked my way through most of my repertoire. Greensleeves? Done it. Oh Tannenbaum (in German...So much depends on the People's Bank of China
“Don’t fight the People’s Bank of China,” is my new mantra for investing in today’s global financial markets. It replaces that old Wall Street saw “Don’t fight the Fed.” Right now what China’s central bank does on currency exchange rates, money supply, and interest...No inflation to speak of, nothing to make the Federal Reserve change course
There was certainly no inflation to speak of in yesterday’s (December 15) consumer price data. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed a scant 0.1% in November. The core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.1%. This puts the annual...Left to fight alone, the European Central Bank doubles its ammo
The euro debt crisis takes another bite at Spain and expands to Belgium. But German opposition to a bigger bailout fund has left the European Central Bank to fight the problem alone. So, prudently, the European Central Bank has decided to raise more capital. Today,...They need how much? Eurozone economies face their biggest refinancing job ever in 2011
Anyone hoping that turning the calendar page to 2011 will mean the end of the euro debt crisis can’t take any comfort in these numbers: Eurozone countries will have to refinance or repay $740 billion in 2011, according to Italian bank Unicredit. That’s roughly $60...The Fed says it will stay the course and bond yields keep moving up
Nothing surprising in the news from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee yesterday. The Fed said its plans were unchanged and that it would buy $600 billion in Treasuries in the first six months of 2011 in order to stimulate the economy. The economy itself, the...Fourth quarter GDP growth looking better than expected
Another number that points to stronger than expected U.S. economic growth. U.S. exports rose 3.2% in October to $159 billion, according to data released on Friday, December 10. That’s the highest level since the middle of 2008. With a dip in imports, down 0.5% in...Higher interest rates, lower bond prices–it's a new world
It’s a bond rout. On December 8, prices for U.S. Treasuries plunged and yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury hit a six-month high of 3.33%. That’s a full percentage point higher than the October low. And it’s a shocking 0.76 percentage points above the yield...Inflation rages ahead in China, rising 5.1% in November: So where's the action from Beijing?
Bad news from the consumer price inflation numbers released in China on December 11. Inflation not only climbed in November from October’s already too-high 4.4% annual rate but jumped to a 5.1% pace. That’s well above the 4.7% rate that economists surveyed by...Will higher stock prices lead the economy upward? Latest Fed numbers on family net wealth say it could be happening
The Federal Reserve may not be having much luck using its $600 billion quantitative easing program to reduce interest rates in order to stimulate the economy—the yields on 10-year Treasuries are climbing–but it looks like the wealth effect might be ready to ride...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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