Who holds the most U.S. Treasuries in the world? (Hint: It's not China.)
Why is this not terribly reassuring? Last week a newcomer moved to the top of the rankings for the world’s leading holder of U.S. Treasuries. Used to be Japan, once upon a time. But Japan with holdings of $877 billion in U.S. Treasuries is now No. 3. For a while China...U.S. manufacturing growth accelerates: Will job growth follow?
Growth in the manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy, which has led the economic recovery, actually accelerated in January according to the ISM Manufacturing Index released yesterday February 1. This survey of attitudes among purchasing managers climbed to 60.8 in...Consumer spending picks up in December on faith that income growth is on the way
And in market moving news from somewhere other than Egypt… In the United States consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of U.S. economic activity in the U.S., rose more than forecast in December, according to data released by the Commerce Department on January 31....Egypt has escalated the food crisis and shifted global economic policy on inflation too
Food prices are headed back to the historic peaks they hit in 2007-2008. Last time I wrote about food—on January 14–that was the headline. A little more than two weeks later that observation seems old hat. Events in Tunisia and Egypt—and elsewhere in the...And the winners among oil stocks from the Egyptian crisis are…
Interesting pattern in today’s big winners on the New York Stock Exchange: the list is dominated by the names of relatively small, predominantly domestic energy producers. As of the end of trading in New York today you would have found these stocks among the big...Egypt doesn't have a corner on the crisis market: S&P downgrades Japan's credit rating
If you’ve let the crisis in Egypt take you mind off some of the globe’s other less splashy crises, let me direct your attention to Japan. On January 26 Standard & Poor’s cut its credit rating on Japan to AA-. It was the first cut to Japan’s credit rating by...Egypt continues to weigh on stocks but without Friday's panic selling (so far today)
Egypt continues to take a toll on stocks. But while the declines are global, the biggest damage is restricted to stocks and markets with actual exposure to the turmoil in that country. Investors, I’d say as a quick summary, are still looking to sell risk but they’re...Massive protests against Mubarak shake Egypt and global financial markets
The news from Egypt and the Middle East is trumping everything else in the financial markets now. The situation continues to worsen in Egypt where President Hosni Mubarak has imposed a 6 p.m. to 7 a.m. curfew in the cities of Cairo, Suez, and Alexandria in an attempt...Where the heck are we in the economic cycle anyway? The answer is important in deciding what sectors to overweight
Are you in the right sectors of the stock market for this point in the economic recovery? Solid data stretching back to 1945 show that certain industries and sectors outperform during specific stages of any economic recovery. No argument from me on that. I think...The Fed speaks–a day for optimism on the U.S. economy?
Could that be optimism about the U.S. economy I see in the snow? (Yes, it’s snowing again here in New York City. It snowed yesterday too.) Sure looks like it with Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index opening up this morning. The market is betting on positive verbiage...China cooks the books: the official numbers understate economic growth
Everyone assumes that China cooks its numbers on inflation and GDP growth. (The rest of the world’s governments, including that of the United States, would never do something like that. Wink, wink.) The January 18 report of fourth quarter GDP growth and December...10 reasons to love inflation
Friends, readers, and consumers, save me your jeers. I come to praise inflation, not to bury it. Hey, I think inflation is getting a bum rap. In the U.S. anyway. Sure, run-away inflation in China and Brazil and India looks like it’s going to cause a lot of pain to...Crucial news is on the calendar this week for those who believe in a stronger than expected U.S. economy in 2011
Major events this week for those investors—and I put myself in the number—who believe that the U.S. economy will beat expectations this year—and take U.S. stocks upward with it. The Federal Reserve meets for the first time in 2011 on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week...Existing home sales bring (some) good news for the U.S. economy
I missed reporting on this piece of economic good news last week. And it’s an important piece of data since it feeds into my belief that the U.S. economy is strengthening and that the U.S. market is the place to be in the first half of 2011. Existing home sales for...Brazil's new central bank president steps on the brakes with a 50 basis point interest rate increase
Not as bad as the worst forecasts, but the January 19 0.5 percentage point interest rate increase from Brazil’s central bank does promise that Alexandre Tombini, new president of the Banco Central do Brasil, is going to aggressively raise rates to fight inflation....What to do to get ready for a correction in overseas stock markets
Yesterday, January 20, I posted saying that I thought investors were looking at a 5% or so pullback in U.S. stocks. Really nothing more than a necessary decline after a long rally so that stocks in the United States can build a new base. I continue to look for a...The standard strategies for "inflation investing" aren't going to work in 2011
Inflation just looks like the biggest story of 2011 for investors. It’s not. The success or failure of government actions to fight inflation is the biggest story of 2011. What’s the difference? If inflation were the story, you all know what I’d be telling you to do....In the U.S. this looks like just a 5% pullback
I think we’re looking at a pullback in U.S. stocks. A pullback in my book is about 5%. It’s less than a correction, which is a drop of 10%. (Please note I’m talking about U.S. stocks only in this post.) The reasons for this are numerous: An overbought market that’s...China GDP growth of 9.8% socks stocks on inflation, tightening fears
Enough with the rumors and the leaks. This morning we have official numbers on economic growth and inflation from China. For the fourth quarter of 2010 GDP growth in China accelerated to 9.8%. That was higher than the 9.6% annual growth recorded in the third quarter...China's bond market doesn't believe inflation is under control
Yes, China has a government bond market. It even has a yield curve. And right now the bond market and the yield curve are signaling worries about inflation just ahead of the release of China’s report on fourth quarter GDP growth. Economists project that China’s...The chip war that's bad for Intel is good for the shares of chip equipment makers
The same logic that has pushed shares of chipmaker Intel (INTC) down despite record earnings and revenue is pushing up the shares of semiconductor equipment makers Look what happened on January 14, the day after Intel announced its earnings. For the day Intel fell by...10 stocks for the next 10 years: It's time for my annual update to the Jubak Picks 50 long-term portfolio
So far, this pick 10 stocks for the next ten years thing is a piece of cake. All you have to do, after all, is start your picks in the bottom of a bear market but close to a recovery and then ride out the next ten-year bull market, right? That was good enough for a...China still isn't serious about inflation and that's an increasing danger
Once more in to the breach, dear friends, once more. The People’s Bank of China yesterday increased the reserve requirements for China’s banks for the fourth time in two months. The 0.5 percentage point increase brings the reserve ratio for China’s biggest banks to a...Food prices are back to 2008 peaks–here are 10 stocks that tap into the trend
Riots in Algeria over the cost of sugar and wheat. Mexico’s government buys corn futures to hedge against rising tortilla prices. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh forced to arrange onion imports from traditional enemy Pakistan. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao promises...What inflation fight? Bank lending and money supply soar in China
Nothing in these numbers to suggest that inflation in China is headed anywhere but higher. Or that China’s government has a handle on the country’s run away money supply growth. Chinese banks, as forecast, burst through the 2010 quota of 7.5 trillion yuan set by...As investors go from hating commodities to loving them–and back again–here are some target prices to think about
Passing on these target prices on commodity producers from Deutsche Bank yesterday, January11. They generally correspond to my view of the world: Coeur d’Alene Mines (CDE) with a target of $54 (from $22.) Barrick Gold (ABX) with a target of $76 (from $58.)...Is China's auto market about to slam on the brakes?
Looks like we’re headed to a car wreck in China—or at least something more seriouis than a fender bender. On one side, speeding toward the intersection, is soaring demand for cars in China. Total vehicle sales (autos, trucks, busses) rose by 32% in 2010 to 18.06...Li & Fung bets that Beijing is serious about growing China's consumer economy
Li & Fung, the biggest supplier to Wal-Mart, is convinced that China’s leaders will carry through on their talk of shifting the country’s economy toward domestic consumption and away from exports. The company is looking to buy Chinese companies in the fashion,...Really want to leverage the recovery of the auto industry? Try these 5 stocks of auto suppliers
U.S. automakers are back, baby. And so are their stocks. December vehicle sales in the U.S. climbed to a 12.5 million unit annual rate. That’s without help from “Cash for clunkers” or any other government subsidy program. And with relatively restrained incentives from...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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