Is this the end of the housing recovery? Even talking about an end to government subsidies sends the market into a tizzy
The program that gives first time home buyers an $8,000 tax credit is due to expire at the end of November. The Federal Reserve will talk about winding down its buying of mortgage-backed securities in its two-day meeting this week. Will that be the end to the rally...Is 1120 the next big test for the S&P 500?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is closing in on 10,000 again and you can expect the financial talking heads to get all breathless as we approach that mark. But for investors the index to watch and the number to watch in the next few weeks is the Standard &...The past isn't what it seems: The more you know about France the more this quirky history will amaze you
When we divide the world into developed and undeveloped economies, we should remember how very recent all of what we call development is. When we marvel at—or doubt–the speed at which China or India or Brazil is becoming developed, we should remember that what...We're in a hole–how about trying to grow our way out?
The economy is taking its first shaky steps toward recovery. Now what should we do? Pass a second national stimulus package scheduled to take effect in 2011, when the effects of the first stimulus have largely worn off? Move to reduce the deficit because the biggest...It's better to be an investor than a worker right now
Household wealth in the United States grew by $2 trillion in the second quarter, according to the Federal Reserve. That’s the first gain in household wealth since the third quarter of 2007 at the start of this recession and stock market slide, and brings to an...At last real job creation–in Brazil
More evidence from Brazil that the global recession is over–in that economy. Figures released on September 17, 2009, show that the Brazilian economy created a net 242,126 formal jobs in August. Net formal job creation for the year stands at 680,034. Add that to...To every earnings turn, there's a season (with apologies to The Byrds)
The earnings seasons are lining up just right for technology stocks. Looking backward that’s one reason that the sector has led the rally off the March 9 stock market lows. And looking ahead it’s one reason why you should be adding technology stocks to...40% of employers to hike cost of health insurance in 2010, Kaiser survey finds
It’s the incredible shrinking benefit. Next year, like the current year and the year before that and the…, employer-provided health insurance will cost workers more. And fewer workers will get that benefit from their jobs at all. 40% of employers surveyed...Credit card defaults move up again in August
Credit card portfolios at the country’s major banks showed a rising tide of defaults in August. That pretty much wiped out the hope the July’s numbers, which showed a glimmer of improvement marked any bottom in bad loans for the sector. Consumers. whose...Stocks are overbought but the trend is still up
Markets always run to extremes both on the up and downside. And sometimes the extremes can be quite extreme. Right now a number of technical indicators are saying that stocks are overbought. That means they’re headed for a correction. Some time. But stocks that...Leave home without it: JPMorgan Chase targets American Express
If you’ve wondered what JPMorgan Chase (JPM), one of the winners in the banking crisis, is going to do to savage more damaged competitors, wonder a little less. On September 14, the bank announced it is going after American Express (AXP) and its highly...How high can gold go? Follow the disappearing gold hedge
So where’s the top for gold? $1006, the recent high? $1150, a target among a group of middle-of-the-road analysts? $2000, the ravings of a minority but not necessarily wrong for all that? At least in the short run, to know where gold is going watch the market...Time to start planning for the next rally
It’s time to consider shifting gears. Instead of chasing the winners of the last stock market rally—the one that’s still going on–I think you should start putting some money into the potential winners of the next move up. Even if that means leaving the last 10%...Why putting in stricter credit standards is making credit card debt riskier for banks
You know why I can’t settle in to a comfortable optimism about the stock market? Because the financial system is so complicated that just when the best and the brightest think they’ve got it all figured out, reality bites them hard. Here’s an..."Most of the time" rallies like this have been followed by a gain over the next 12 months.
You shouldn’t be worried that the recent 50% (and more) rally from the March lows will be followed by a vicious collapse. Since World War II, most of the time a year after a move of 30% or more in a six month period, stocks were higher yet a year later. In eight of...Steel, a leading indicator on the economy, could be turning negative
Steel goes into buildings, appliances, and cars. That makes demand for steel a leading indicator for the economy since companies order steel in antipication of rising sales of their own products. This summer global demand moved up and so did prices. In August a...Corus signals the next wave of bank failures
Here we go again. On Friday, September 11, regulators seized Corus Bank of Chicago. It’s the biggest bank failure to date with its roots in the commercial real estate and construction loan market. And it marks the start of the long-feared next stage of the...Montalban's detective novels: Remembrance of Barcelona's past
In most mystery novels the detective is the star in the spot light and the city, country house, deserted moor, whatever is atmosphere, the source of clues, scenery. Manual Vazquez Montalban’s detective novels reverse that relationship. His plots are almost...Rare earths: You can't build hybrids or wind turbines without them and China is putting the squeeze on supplies
Lanthanum. Neodymium. Dysprosium. Terbium. The words don’t exactly roll off the tongue. But they’re the names of four of the seventeen rare earth elements. You can’t build a Prius, an accurate missile, or a wind turbine without them. And thanks to the threat of an...A falling dollar is driving stocks higher
The dollar keeps falling. And stocks keep climbing. The U.S. currency dropped to $1.46092 to the euro on September 10. It hasn’t been this low since December 2008. And even though it’s down 13% since it peaked in March, the dollar has a way to go before it finds...First Solar cracks the China market–sort of
Like most investment stories involving China, it pays to read the fine print on First Solar’s (FSLR) announcement that it has signed a deal to build a huge 2 gigawatt solar plant in China. That’s a huge deal because 1) the proposed plant, at 2 gigawatts,...Mexico's rapid decline in oil production is proving peak oil proponents right
The news just keeps getting worse from Mexico’s huge Cantarell oil field—and worse faster than anybody had expected too. Cantarell, a big field in the Gulf of Mexico, was once the world’s second largest oil field. But after years of under investment by Mexico’s...Flight from the U.S. dollar is pumping up Asian stock markets
You don’t need to be Sherlock Holmes to know where the money is going. It’s elementary. Investors are taking money out of the United States, which they see as lagging the global economic recovery, and putting it into Asia, which they see as leading the global...We'd gladly go into debt to save the economy but those bad banks won't let us
U.S. consumers cut back on borrowing by a record $21.6 billion in July. According to the Federal Reserve, consumer credit fell at an annual rate of 10% in the month. That’s about five times faster than the contraction that economists were expecting. That’s great news...Gold rallies on the U.S. dollar's plunge.
Gold is making another run at breaking above and staying above $1000 an ounce. And I think this time the price is likely to stick. Even though gold is up 13% in 2009, I think the precious metal could tack on another 10% before it takes a breather. Gold has tried to...Stocks test the top of their range
Nice of the stock market to cooperate while I was on vacation. Stocks didn’t move substantially higher and they didn’t move substantially lower while I was away from my desk in the last weeks of August. The market was what I’d call range bound for...The recovery isn't yet a sure thing
In my 11:45 post today, “Huh? Wall Street thinks higher unemployment is good news?” I said that I was still not convinced that the economic recession was truly over. The recovery that we’ve seen signs of in the last few months could simply be inventory restocking....Batteries, yep good old batteries, are the technology of tomorrow. Here's how to invest
It’s 1967. In “The Graduate” the experienced Mr. McGuire leans over to whisper advice to the very inexperienced Benjamin. (Played by a very young Dustin Hoffman.) “I want to say one word to you. Just one word.” “Yes, sir,” replies the ever polite Benjamin. “Are you...Huh? Wall Street figures higher unemployment is good news?
You’d think that last week’s jump in the August unemployment rate to 9.7%–the consensus among economists was for just 9.5%–would have sent stocks tumbling. After all, if more people are out of work, consumers will buy less. And it’s not exactly a vote of...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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