November 24, 2009 @ 1:05 pm | Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
There’s no free lunch. Not even for China. The Beijing government has used its state-controlled banking system to provide much of the financial stimulus that has powered China to 8.9% economic growth in the third quarter of 2009. And now the bill is coming due....
November 24, 2009 @ 10:57 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
Now it’s the big caps leading the stock market. From the bottom on March 9, 2009 through October 14 small company stocks led the market. The Russell 2000 Index (IUX) of small cap stocks climbed 82%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) of big company stocks hasn’t...
November 24, 2009 @ 8:30 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
A lost decade. 1999 to 2009 sure qualifies for many investors in stocks. A lost decade to come? I can’t tell you what stocks or stock markets will perform best over the next ten years. But I can tell you that many U.S. investors are still sitting in portfolios that...
November 23, 2009 @ 1:22 pm | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
Everyone is warning about bubbles. These warnings have all been unconvincing to me because they imagine that the next bubble will look like the last one. Until today. Gillian Tett in the November 23 Financial Times has come up with the first description of a bubble...
November 23, 2009 @ 10:30 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
The U.S, Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are pursuing increasingly divergent economic policies. The policies are so divergent that it’s almost guaranteed that one or the other of these central banks is wrong. But the biggest worry is that the interaction...
November 23, 2009 @ 8:30 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
The yield on a 90-day Treasury bill closed at 0.005% on Friday, November 20. Yep, some investors were willing to lock up their money for three months and get an exciting five-hundredths of a percent in interest. But that’s not the most shocking thing that happened on...
November 20, 2009 @ 5:25 pm | Leading Indicators |
Not so long ago, November 18 to be precise, I wrote that the rally was still firmly in charge. Right now I’d take out that word “firmly.” I had thought that when the Standard & Poor’s 500 closed above 1110 on November 17 stocks were done consolidating and had...
November 20, 2009 @ 12:10 pm | Leading Indicators |
Another of the “emergency” measures enacted to stop of the financial crisis from plunging the economy into a depression looks like it’s on the road to becoming “permanent.” And this one could really blow up on us taxpayers—again—not so far down the road. I’m talking...
November 20, 2009 @ 8:30 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
Feeling twitchy? Your portfolio is probably full of stocks trading at 52-week highs. And I’ll bet you’ve thought about selling. And you would do that–except that the stock market keeps going up (well except for the last couple of days), cash pays close to...
November 19, 2009 @ 3:25 pm | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
You’re probably tired of reading this. I’m certainly tired of writing this. It’s all about the U.S. dollar. The moves of the dollar trump everything else when it comes to deciding whether stocks will go up or down on any particular day. So ignore the headlines...
November 19, 2009 @ 1:56 pm | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
When will China remove the dollar-renminbi peg and let its currency appreciate against the dollar and the currencies of its trading partners? Thanks to U.S. ambassador to China Jon Huntsman at least when the United States timetable for China to act. On November 19 he...
November 19, 2009 @ 10:27 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
Peak gold? You may have heard of peak oil, the theory that at some point—ranging from 2005 to 2025–the world will have found all the easy oil there is to find and that after that new finds won’t be able to keep up with the global rate of consumption. But peak...
November 19, 2009 @ 9:16 am | Leading Indicators |
Cash flows and cheap money are enough to keep the current rally going into 2010, I believe. Comparisons with really, really weak quarters in the first half of 2009 for global economies in general and for company earning in particular favor a continuation of the upward...
November 18, 2009 @ 5:06 pm | Leading Indicators |
Stocks are hanging tough in the face of some heavy duty bad news. For the last two days, November 17 and 18 the Standard & Poor’s 500 has refused to drop below 1100. That’s often a sign that stocks are ready to move higher when the bad news flow stops. How bad has...
November 18, 2009 @ 12:30 pm | Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
(Originally posted on October 14 but several readers have asked me to repost.) What me worry? On a day when the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes above 10,000 for the first time in a year and when the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closes within kissing...
November 18, 2009 @ 11:11 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
Bad news for solar cell and panel companies. At least those that want to make a profit. Just when the supply glut is showing signs of improving, China’s solar industry is about to embark on an expansion binge. The goal? To build solar manufacturing plants in the...
November 17, 2009 @ 1:27 pm | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
Have you ever played Three Card Monte? It’s a classic street con here in New York. All you have to do to win is guess which of three cards is the Queen. The dealer and his accomplices set up the mark with a fast shuffle, often on a cardboard box so that nothing...
November 17, 2009 @ 8:30 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
Friends, readers, and countrymen, lend me your eyeballs. I come not to bury the fixed dollar-renminbi peg but to praise it. (Yeah, it doesn’t roll off the tongue but have you ever seen Shakespeare’s first draft of Anthony’s speech?) If you’re running the global...
November 16, 2009 @ 5:28 pm | Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
The test is over. And the stock market rally has passed. On November 16, the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the NASDAQ 100 both joined the Dow Jones Industrials in setting new recovery highs. In other words all three indexes have busted out of the trading range of 1025...
November 16, 2009 @ 8:30 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
We all know that for the long-term health of the global economy and financial system national stimulus packages have to end and governments need to begin paying down the debt that they’ve run up during this crisis. And we all doubt that governments will do any such...
November 13, 2009 @ 4:36 pm | Leading Indicators |
Stocks will be volatile next week. On November 16 through 18 U.S. President Barack Obama will meet with Chinese president Hu Jintao and other Chinese leaders. The currency markets will study every word and rumor out of those meetings in Beijing for clues on when China...
November 13, 2009 @ 10:30 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
Same day, November 12. Two different reports. Two different views on oil. First, the U.S. Energy Information Administration: There’s a glut of oil. Domestic crude inventories rose 1.8 million barrels to 338 million barrels in the week ending on November 6. That was...
November 13, 2009 @ 8:30 am | AAPL, Breaking News, Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
I know Apple (AAPL) is an investor darling trading near an all-time high. And I know the company’s products have tremendous consumer cache. So much so that the company is able to sell its iPhones and iMacs for prices well above those charged by competitors. But it...
November 12, 2009 @ 3:32 pm | Leading Indicators |
That was fast. Less than two weeks ago investors were worried that stocks would break through support levels and head for new lows. Didn’t happen. On October 30 the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index hit 1036. That turned out to be the low in a dip that took the...
November 12, 2009 @ 12:50 pm | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
California tops the list of the 10 states in the deepest financial hole. But not by much. Arizona is a close second. (For more on the state and local budget crisis, higher taxes, and the effect on the economic recovery see my post...
November 12, 2009 @ 11:40 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
On November 11, the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, said that there might be a case for letting the renminbi appreciate against the U.S. dollar. China’s currency has been pegged to the U.S. dollar since July 2008 at roughly 6.83 renminbi to the...
November 11, 2009 @ 10:30 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
Jimmy Choo—well, his iconic Sex-in-the-City shoes anyway—is now on the war-torn economic frontline. So is Stella McCartney. Anna Sui. And, of course, McDonald’s. The battle is over the New Frugality, the current marketing hot button as the United States gradually...
November 11, 2009 @ 8:30 am | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
Good news, bad news from China. Good news first: China’s economy continues to roar ahead. Retail sales climbed at an annual rate of 16.2%. Exports slowed their slide and the trade surplus almost doubled to $24 billion in September. GDP growth looks well on its way to...
November 10, 2009 @ 1:58 pm | Breaking News, Leading Indicators |
When will banks start lending again? Wasn’t in October. Doesn’t look like November. Maybe 2010? That would be a relief for any investor counting on 3% or better growth from the U.S. economy next year. The economy can’t start cooking if banks aren’t lending. The...
November 10, 2009 @ 9:26 am | Leading Indicators, You May Have Missed |
The taxman cometh. That’s not only going to be individually painful in 2010 but the collective hit to consumers could be enough to stall the economic recovery. 2010, though is the short-term. The International Monetary Fund, in a burst of pre-holiday cheer, warned on...