From squeeze to glut for solar silicon makers
Soleil Securities analyst Paul Lemming has issued a note warning of a polysilicon glut that will hit the solar industry in 2010, according to a post by Eric Savitz on the Barron’s Tech Daily Trader blog. Over the next three quarters, he calculates, the amount of...Short-term stock market momentum falters; watch for signs of a further breakdown
So far—as of yesterday, that is—the dollar rally has been just a bounce. But a rising dollar has now pushed the euro, the Australian and Canadian dollar, and the Brazilian real down to a critical level. Same is true for gold, oil, and other commodities that have...Don't worry about a UK default, Moody's says: Like the U.S., the country is "resilient"
Ah, now there’s a distinction worth making. Moody’s, one of the big three debt rating companies, is continuing to rate the sovereign debt of deeply indebted countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States Aaa. That’s the same top credit rating Moody’s gives...Mortgage deliquency rate projected to inch–and I mean inch–downward in 2010
Reassuring news on the home mortgage front: the tide of mortgage delinquencies will start to recede in 2010—unless you live in Arizona, California, Florida, New York or Virginia. Those states will see delinquencies continue to climb next year. That’s the forecast from...While everybody is watching Copenhagen, U.S. gets a climate change policy
Of course, it’s political window-dressing. It gives President Barack Obama something concrete in hand to take to the global summit on climate change in Copenhagen. But yesterday’s decision by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to declare carbon dioxide a...The return of the oil shortage–around 2015–and why the industry's logical decisions now will make it worse
Devonshire Energy’s decision to sell its expensive to develop deepwater assets in the Gulf of Mexico in order to concentrate on its onshore natural gas reserves makes perfect sense. For that company. For the oil industry and for the global economy picture, though,...Santa is leaving coal for regional bank stocks this year
‘Tis the season for tax-loss selling. When good investors go to sleep with visions of taking losses to offset profits dancing in their heads. Investors sell losing stocks in November and December in order to generate tax deductions they can use to offset profits...First Dubai–Now Greece and Portugal?
Things are getting serious in the market for sovereign debt. You know, the paper issued by countries with big deficits that need to borrow to stay in business. Just before Thanksgiving Dubai World, a government-controlled conglomerate in Dubai, suspended debt...Today small caps beat big caps: Is this the start of a new trend?
Small caps outperformed the market today. One day doesn’t a trend reversal make, but this situation could get interesting. On November 24, I wrote that big company stocks were now outperforming small company stocks...Good news on jobs hurts Treasuries, oil, stocks; crushes gold
All it took was an unexpectedly strong unemployment report. Following the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of numbers showing the economy lost just 11,000 jobs in November rather than the expected 125,000, the Dollar Index broke above its 2009 trend line and the...HSBC and Standard Chartered have little to fear from Dubai World
The two bank stocks I like best for their big business in emerging economies don’t look like they’ll take big hits in the Dubai World debt freeze and restructuring. Initial estimates put the exposure of HSBC Holdings (HBC) and Standard Chartered (SCBFF) to the United...What does it say if today's good news on unemployment doesn't lead stocks higher?
Stocks should soar today. If they don’t, investors will need to rethink their explanation for recent market weakness. This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the economy lost just 11,000 jobs in November. That was a huge surprise. Wall Street had...Not a double dip but a sputter for the economy in 2010
The economy is looking increasingly dicey for 2010. Oh, things are okay now. The most recent numbers are, in fact reassuring. The United States seems to be on track for something like 3% economic growth in the fourth quarter. That would be a slight acceleration from...Plastic staying home alone this holiday shopping season
Shoppers are leaving home without it this year. An estimated 28.3% of consumers will use credit cards to pay for holiday gifts this year, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation and BIGresearch. That would be a drop from the 31.5% of consumers who paid...A more defensive rally in November: Is the market losing momentum?
Stocks continue to move up but investors are getting more defensive. You can see it in a list of what sectors led the stock market in November and which lagged. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index was up 6.4% in November. Sectors that trailed the S&P for the...Pressed for cash, states go after pension pot of gold
Wonder how governments will close the huge budget gaps created by the Great Recession and the bailouts of the financial crisis? New York State’s recent budget move provides a pretty good road map. And you can sum it up concisely. Go after retirement programs. It’s...Stocks hit the top of the channel again; a 5% correction would be business as usual here
Here we go again. For all the ups and downs; the crisis scares and the crisis solutions; the good numbers and the bad numbers; this stock market is still moving up. But instead of running up by leaps and bounds, it’s now inching up. Each time it rallies it manages to...Reports of China deal send fertilizer stocks soaring
Fertilizer stocks are flying today on news, reported by Industrial Minerals http://www.mineralnet.co.uk/Article/2350062/Potash-market-flat-in-November.html , that China and Belarusian Potash are negotiating a contract for as much as 850,000 metric tons. Such a deal...Looking for profits from the end of the energy log-jam
The news yesterday from Progress Energy (PGN) that it would shut 11 of its coal-fired plants by 2017 and replace them with natural gas and nuclear power plants shows how the lack of climate-change legislation from Congress is creating a huge backlog of energy...Job losses slow but still higher than expected
Another 169,000 jobs lost in November. About the best thing you can say about the report from ADP Employer Services released this morning is that the U.S. economy is shedding jobs at a slower rate. The 169,000 jobs lost in November is the smallest drop since July...India's growth at 7.9% just a hair behind China.
India’s economy grew at an annual rate of 7.9% in the third quarter of 2009 from the third quarter of 2008. That’s only a tad behind China’s 8.9% growth for the quarter. And it brings the Reserve Bank of India significantly closer to the day when it...Apple's iPhone to go to T-Mobile and not Verizon in 2010
When AT&T’s (T) exclusive deal expires in 2010, Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone is most likely to find a second home with T-Mobile and not Verizon (VRZN). That’s the conclusion of a note published by analyst Doug Reid of Thomas Weisel Partners and picked...It's not the price of oil but the cost of oil that divides the good oil stocks from the bad
I’d never say “Forget about the price of oil” when you’re thinking about buying oil or natural gas stocks. The price of oil is the tide that lifts all boats—or leaves them stuck in the muck. But increasingly the difference between a “good” oil and natural gas stock...Dubai says the crisis is over; the banks say it's over–why does that make me uneasy?
Hope it’s that easy. But I doubt it. Dubai and Dubai World, you remember the country and the company that threw world financial markets into a panic over the Thanksgiving weekend, say that working out a restructuring with lenders is turning out to be as easy as...Natural gas prices to stay low into 2010: good news for consumers; bad news for producers
Just when you think it can’t get any worse in the natural gas industry, it does. A glut of gas in the United States as a result of lower demand because of the Great Recession and greater than projected production from the gas shales of Texas and Oklahoma has driven...Who's right? Individuals bearish,hedge managers are bullish
Individual investors say stocks are going to fall. They’ve pulled $3.7 billion out of equity mutual funds since August, according to the Investment Company Institute. Hedge fund managers say they’re going up. They’ve got more money in stocks than at any time since the...Danger in Dubai–and perhaps opportunity
U.S. investors should feel very familiar with the financial crisis that broke out in Dubai last week. The names are different but the story is striking similar to the U.S. mortgage crisis. And if you’re trying to figure out the dangers and the opportunities in this...Best of the holiday to everyone!
JubakPicks.com is taking Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving Friday off so I can be with family and friends (and on Friday watch scenes of people shopping.) I wish you a safe journey to wherever your celebration is this year and I hope that you can find a way to experience...Everyone agrees that the dollar will keep falling; the dispute is over how long
Unemployment. Consumer spending. New home sales. End of the year profit-taking. End of the year portfolio window dressing. All those drive the stock market day to day. But none pack the wallop that the rising and falling (mostly falling recently) price of the U.S....Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
Every post from Jubak Picks straight to your mailbox. And they're free!