China's imports may have soared in January: Does that mean anything?
Numbers like that would sure make the rest of the world feel better about China. They might even put to rest some of the worries about a slowdown in China’s growth as the government tightens standards for bank lending. China’s imports climbed 100% in January,...Could it be? Housing stocks actually leading the market?
Bounce or trend? That’s the question. The dollar took a break yesterday as it met some resistance after moving up so strongly in January. Commodities hit support that then rallied. At least that’s one way to look at it. From a purely technical point of view all we’ve...The scariest numbers in the world?
The scariest numbers I’ve read recently aren’t projections for U.S. debt. Or how much of the globe’s farmland won’t be usable for farming by 2050. Or even how many losses the New Jersey Nets will rack up this basketball season. (4-42 and counting right now.) Nope, the...Interest rates could stay low for longer than anyone now projects
The Reserve Bank of Australia, the country’s central bank, surprised just about everybody by keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged today, February 2. All 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a quarter-percentage-point increase to 4%. Futures...Can the Chinese consumer save the global economy?
If, as I argued in my January 29 post https://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/29/maybe-the-u-s-consumer-is-never-coming-back-and-the-global-economy-will-stay-awash-in-excess-capacity/ , the free-spending, never met a credit card they didn’t like U.S. consumer of 2006 and...Traders jumping on the Brazilan currency bandwagon
Guess there’s no such thing as a little volatility when it comes to the Brazilian real. In December traders were calling the real the world’s most overvalued currency. Now the consensus prediction, according to a Bloomberg survey of 19 currency analysts, is that the...The dollar's up so everything else is down: What else isn't new?
Looking for an explanation for the rout in emerging market stocks and commodities? Blame it on the U.S. dollar. Oh, the original decline in the prices of those assets started in a different quarter with worries that government moves to cut bank lending and to tighten...Are traders trying to talk down China's stock market?
Just something to keep in mind when you listen to yet another big money guy tell you how dangerous China’s stock markets are now: they’re probably buying. Or will soon do so. I had this thought as I listened Friday to a Bloomberg interview with George Soros from the...China's stocks are still falling but other emerging markets aren't following so closely
For China’s stock markets, right now all news is bad news. Take new data from a survey of purchasing managers for January released by HSBC and Markit Economics released on Monday, February 1. The index, roughly equivalent to the survey of purchasing managers conducted...Maybe the U.S. consumer is never coming back–and the global economy will stay awash in excess capacity
Consumer demand in the United States isn’t coming back. Not anytime soon. Not for a decade or more. Not to anything like the levels of 2006 or 2007 before the global economic crisis hit full force. I know that’s not the conventional wisdom–or...Great news on U.S. GDP even if a traumatized stock market can manage only a small gain
That counts as really good news. The U.S. economy grew by 5.7% in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to the first take on GDP numbers released by the Commerce Department this morning (January 29). Economists had been expecting 4.6% growth for the quarter. If the...The rout in global stocks is a tempest in the teapot of China's command economy
We’re getting a lesson in exactly how messy a command economy can be in China right now. And it’s roiling stock markets around the globe. I’m sure that voters from Homer, Alaska, to Lubec, Maine, (and from Tokyo to Athens for that matter) have watched in envy over the...Tomorrow's GDP number likely to move the market but up or down?
When you’re making up your list of market-moving events, don’t forget tomorrow’s (January 29) release of the first take on fourth quarter U.S. GDP (gross domestic product). Economists are looking for strong 4.6% growth in the U.S. economy to end the year. Anything...Odds that this is a 10% correction (and not just 5%) rise as tech stocks sink
About a week ago, on January 22, I wrote a post called “So far this looks like just a correction” https://jubakpicks.com/2010/01/22/so-far-this-looks-like-just-a-correction/ I noted that the rally that began in March had been dotted with 5% corrections, but that we...Stocks in China, Brazil climb but is this the end of the emerging markets correction?
Stocks in China closed up today, January 28, in Shanghai and Hong Kong, breaking a six day losing streak. Shares of other emerging markets were ahead at noon in London. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was up 1.3%. Six straight declines have taken the index down 9.7%...More pain in emerging markets but isn't that a good thing in the long run?
The correction in the world’s emerging stock markets continues. At noon in London today, January 27, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was down 0.5%. That brings the index’s six day retreat, the longest slide in a year, to 7.8%. There’s just enough news of tighter...Announcing Jim's Watch List: Track the stocks I'm waiting to buy
You asked for it; we built it. (Well, actually super programmer Hugh Hunter did.) It’s a way to keep track of stocks I mention but don’t buy. We’ve called it, naturally enough, “Jim’s Watch List: Stocks I’ve got my eye on.” At the top of the blog, next to the...Trouble in Japan and the U.K. add up to a stronger U.S. dollar
Expect the dollar to keep moving higher in the near term. Credit rating worries in Japan and disappointing economic numbers in the United Kingdom pretty much guarantee that the U.S. dollar will continue to gain on the yen and the pound. On January 25 Standard &...For after the correction, think industrial stocks: Market history says this is their time
Are you in the right sectors of the stock market for this point in the economic recovery? (Yes, despite the stock market correction, we are still in an economic recovery.) Solid data stretching back to 1945 argues that certain industries and sectors outperform during...A week ahead with enough economic date to move stock markets
Get set for a week of economic news—and spin. And it’s how the numbers are spun that will determine if the recent stock market slide continues or shifts into a resumption of the rally. The big number, of course, is due on Friday when the U.S. government releases...When to buy
If this is a correction and if this is therefore a buying opportunity, how long do you wait? That’s the most asked question I’m seeing in the comment sections of the Jubak Picks today. My opinion? I think we’ve got more downside next week. And I’m going to explain why...So far this looks like just a correction
Lots of investors have been waiting for a correction, arguing that no market can go only straight up and that the longer stocks go without a 10% correction they riskier they became. Well, it looks like we might be about to get that correction. The Dow Jones Industrial...2010–well, the first half anyway–looks good for stocks despite the current correction
The odds that the U.S. stock market will win its current bet look daunting. Especially with stocks currently threatening a good-sized correction. Investors are betting that the U.S. economy will produce a big enough increase in earnings to keep stock prices headed...Russia buys Canadian dollars–shouldn't you?
So what took them so long? On January 20, Russia’s central bank announced that it had started buying Canadian dollars and Canadian-dollar-denominated bonds to diversify its foreign exchange reserves. We’re not talking about a huge allocation to...Sentiment shifting on China: Is a buying opportunity ahead?
Investors have turned bullish on the United States and are less bullish—if not actually bearish so far– on China, according to a Bloomberg survey of subscribers. Investors who have been waiting for a buying opportunity in China and other emerging markets may be...10.5% GDP growth from China tomorrow will move global markets–but in which direction?
China is scheduled to release statistics on fourth quarter 2009 GDP growth tomorrow, January 21. And the consensus among forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg is that China’s GDP grew by 10.5% from the fourth quarter of 2008. 10.5% could just be too much of a good...Technology shares leading this rally so far
Technology stocks look placed to lead the market on both technicals and earnings. After Friday’s sell off, the sector resumed an uptrend on Tuesday January 19 that stretches back to the late November lows. Strong results from Intel (INTC) on Thursday and IBM (IBM)...Google's China troubles not so great for Baidu?
Troubles at Baidu (BIDU)? Traders jumped into shares of Baidu last week on the theory that Google’s (GOOG) troubles in China—and the likely shutdown of the company’s Chinese search engine—would be good news for the biggest domestic search company. Today they seem to...Get your portfolio ready for the profitless global economic recovery
So what should investors do about it? What’s “it”? The global crisis in profits caused by excess supply over demand. Take a look at how “it” is at work across the global economy. The aluminum industry—awash in excess global capacity with more scheduled to come on...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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