For commodites stocks, it's wait until next year
No secret that commodity prices have plunged on fears that global economic growth is fading. Or in the case of China slowing from near 12% annually to something like 8% or 9%. And no secret that the prices of commodity stocks have plunged as well. Shares of copper,...China's stock markets pass a test: Agricultural Bank looks like it raised more than $19 billion
Unnamed sources have told Bloomberg that Agricultural Bank of China will raise $19.2 million in its IPO (initial public offering) after pricing its Hong Kong shares at HK$3.20 and its Shanghai shares at 2.68 yuan. Neither the company nor either stock exchange has made...Brazil remains on track for end to interest rate increases by December
As headlines go yesterday’s “Brazilian economists raise forecasts for interest rate increases” is no “Dewey defeats Truman.” But it is still downright misleading. If all you read is the headline, you’re likely to come away with a belief that the turn in Brazil’s...Within six months global stock market performance will diverge–where do you want your money?
It may not look like it but the world’s stock markets are about to start moving in different directions. That’s certainly not at all clear now. Most days recently all the world’s stock markets have moved in the same direction—DOWN. On June 29, for example, the U.S....Narrowing down the list of Europe's troubled banks
More details and better projections on the European bank stress test and what banks are likely to fail the test. The smaller than expected demand—just $162 billion–for 3-month loans from the European Central Bank shows, I think, that the European banking sector...Job losses are as bad as expected–and so already discounted by the stock market
The non-farm payroll and unemployment numbers this morning were pretty much the bad news the stock market has anticipated in its declines over the last few days. Payrolls fell by 125,000 in June. That was the first monthly decline this year and slightly worse than the...Whoopie! preliminary second quarter numbers: Jubak's Picks lost less money in the quarter than the market as a whole and is sitting on a pile of cash to boot
A very preliminary—but fast, I think you have to admit—report on the second quarter performance of my Jubak’s Picks portfolio. The portfolio showed a negative total return—that is I lost money even when you include dividends—of 8.4% for the quarter that began on April...Markets get spooked now that China is delivering exactly the slow down they wanted
Be careful what you wish for. Financial markets have been hoping that China would manage to slow its economy–in order to keep inflation under control—without causing a crash in either the stock or real estate markets. There’s mounting evidence that China is...Germany will stress test its most troubled banking sector–by mid-month we'll know how big the problem at the Landesbanks is
At least we’ll know how bad it is. That’s my reaction to news that Germany will extend its bank stress test to its Landesbanks. These banks, owned by the country’s state governments, are thought to be the most exposed to risky debt and the most undercapitalized of the...Finally first quarter 2010 numbers for Jubak's Picks–nothing to write home about
The Jubak’s Picks, my 12-18 month portfolio, returned a paltry 0.7% in the first quarter of 2010. Since today, June 30, marks the close of the second quarter of 2010, I guess you can say I’m little behind in reporting the performance of Jubak’s Picks. In fact I’m...Good news: I see a end to the selling soon; Bad news: I think that stop will be temporary
What will stop the carnage? The long Fourth of July weekend will help. No one wants to be exposed either long or short over a four-day market holiday. I expect to see squaring of positions and declining volumes over the next two days as U.S. traders get ready for the...Deciding which company pays what in the Gulf disaster just got a little harder
A setback today for Anadarko Petroleum (APC) in its efforts to get out from under the costs of the Deepwater Horizon disaster. The company is a 25% partner with majority stakeholder BP (BP) and minority partner Mitsui (10%) in the Macondo well that continues to spew...Deja whew! European banks don't look quite so troubled this morning
The European Central Bank taketh away and the European Central Bank giveth. Yesterday, June 29, worries that the European Central Bank’s decision to end a $543 billion one-year special liquidity program would send European banks into a new crisis started a global...Another day, another bad number on employment
Disappointing numbers from the payroll survey by ADP Employer Services will keep the market on edge today as Wall Street waits for official government data on initial claims for unemployment tomorrow and then on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate on Friday....Shanghai moves deeper into bear country–so when's the rally?
Traders have been watching the 2500 level on the Shanghai Composite Index closely for the last week. And today they got the price action they feared. The index dropped another 4.3% today to close at 2427. That’s below both the psychologically important 2500 level....The European Central Bank seems determined to make the euro crisis worse
Add a new risk to the continuing euro debt crisis: The European Central Bank itself. The bank’s one-year special liquidity facility runs out on June 30—and the bank has apparently decided not to renew the $543 billion program that supplied liquidity to the Euro Zone...Looking for good news today? Try Brazil
Good news out of Brazil today, June 29. (Yes, Virginia, there is good news somewhere.) I know. I know. The Brazilian stock market is taking it on chin this morning on worries about slowing growth in China. What do you expect? China is a huge export market for Brazil....We've got a jobs creation crisis–and so far the U.S. is ignoring it
What’s the world’s scarcest commodity? Now, during and before the global financial and economic crisis. And for years—probably decades–to come. Jobs. Somehow in our rush to fix the stuff that went wrong and caused the financial crash and in our efforts to bring...Employment data fireworks to end this week
The Fourth of July fireworks come early this year. Although by the calendar, the Fourth isn’t until Sunday, the big explosive economic news gets delivered on Thursday and Friday. Thursday brings the possibility of a few ooohs, aaahs, and bangs with the report on...My "buy indicator" for China's stocks takes another step forward
Agricultural Bank of China priced the Shanghai portion of its IPO (initial public offering) today at 2.52 yuan to 2.68 yuan a share. The Hong Kong portion of this IPO priced last week. Today’s announcement keeps the deal on track for a mid-July offering. (I’ve...Don't expect the bond markets to cheer the G20 results
Maybe they shouldn’t have issued a joint statement at all. Certainly the meaningless promise that the leaders of the world’s 20 largest economies cobbled together after this weekend’s meeting of the G20 isn’t going to increase anyone’s confidence in the direction of...International regulators are getting trounced by the banks too
The lesson is clear: Never, never underestimate the ability of banks to beat back the regulators when it really counts. You might have thought that the international regulators in charge of formulating a new set of rules called Basel III would have had the upper hand...Financial reform won't hit the big banks anywhere near as hard as Wall Street wants you to believe
So is it just standard issue Wall Street arrogance or does JPMorgan Chase (JPM) know something? The bank, which has emerged from the financial crisis as one of the strongest big banks in the United States, is pressing ahead with discussions to buy a big Brazilian...Oil company buyers and sellers in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico after BP
$20 billion is a chunk of change even for BP (BP). You can bet that a lot of oil company CEOs are trying to figure out if they can afford to keep drilling in the Gulf of Mexico (whenever that’s possible again.) If the $20 billion fund that BP has agreed to put aside...China's stocks resume their retreat as old fears re-emerge after yuan news
End of the yuan to dollar peg? China’s currency to appreciate? That story is so last week. The stock market action in China over the last couple of days is back to the same old, same old: Worries over global economic growth, worries, that China’s government will pull...Could we be looking at (another) global credit crunch as central banks step back from the markets?
The world is starved for credit. I know it doesn’t seem that way what with huge stimulus packages in 2009, massive expansion of the money supply in the United States, China, and Europe, and hand-over-fist expansion of the balance sheets at the U.S. Federal Reserve and...Good news for U.S. economic growth in this morning's durables orders for May
Ignore the headlines saying that durable goods orders fell in May. Boeing is almost single-handedly responsible for the drop as aircraft orders fell 30% in May after soaring by more than 200% in April. Boeing said it received just 5 orders in May after getting 34 in...Will we see more signs that the economy is slowing in tomorrow's durable goods orders?
Tomorrow’s durable goods numbers for May are a more important indicator of the direction of the economy than today’s disappointing figures on new home sales. (New home sales in May dropped by a record 33% from April to an annual rate of just 300,000.) In April...Want to know how painful it will be to get the U.S. budget deficit under control? Take a look at the new austerity budget in the UK
Maybe it’s their weather. But for whatever reason the Brits are really good at creating dystopias, those worst of all possible worlds. 1984. A Clockwork Orange. And now finance minister George Osborne’s austerity budget. The plan announced yesterday projects roughly...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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