July 22, 2010 @ 11:42 am | Leading Indicators |
“The western ratings agencies are politicized and highly ideological and they do not adhere to objective standards,” Guan Jianzhong, told the Financial Times yesterday. Absolutely true, of course. Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch Ratings, the big three U.S....
July 21, 2010 @ 4:26 pm | Leading Indicators |
Not the home run that Intel (INTC) hit with its earnings but EMC’s (EMC) results back up my theory that technology hardware companies with new products offering more power at lower prices and lower operating costs will show strength in 2010 even if the economy...
July 21, 2010 @ 11:23 am | Leading Indicators |
I’m looking at the earnings report from Goldman Sachs (GS) yesterday, July 20, as the second part of the company’s fine for bad behavior. The first part, the official part, was the company’s $550 million settlement with the SEC (Securities & Exchange Commission.)...
July 20, 2010 @ 4:46 pm | Leading Indicators |
IBM’s (IBM) second quarter revenue miss yesterday (July 19)—the company reported revenue grow of just 2% instead of the 4% to 5% that Wall Street had expected—undermined the entire technology sector. Last week after Intel (INTC) reported earnings of 51 cents a share...
July 20, 2010 @ 11:53 am | Leading Indicators |
The Farnborough air show, one of the global aircraft industry’s premier marketing events, has been very, very good to Boeing (BA). Yesterday the company received a $9 billion order for 777 jets from Dubai’s Emirates airline and 40 orders from aircraft leasing company...
July 19, 2010 @ 12:59 pm | Leading Indicators |
A bottom with no near-term upside catalyst. I’m afraid that fits the global economy, the U.S. stock market, and the Baltic Dry Index. The Baltic Dry Index, a widely followed, but very volatile, indicator of global economic activity, is showing signs that it...
July 16, 2010 @ 2:11 pm | Leading Indicators |
Yesterday’s second quarter earnings report from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) raised concern among investors. The bank reported falling revenue—just 6% it’s true—in its investment banking business. That seemed to confirm concerns that the Wall Street side—investment banking,...
July 16, 2010 @ 12:57 pm | Leading Indicators |
It’s not even a slap on the wrist. The $550 million fine agreed to by Goldman Sachs (GS) as part of its settlement with the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) amounts to roughly a week’s worth of trading revenue for Goldman. Considering that the SEC put the...
July 16, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Leading Indicators |
Inflation is a sexy worry. We can photograph it. A photo of a one billion dollar bill next to a pile of apples from Zimbabwe’s recent bout of runaway inflation stuns the imagination. It’s the stuff of national nightmares. The German electorate and German bankers are...
July 15, 2010 @ 6:41 pm | Leading Indicators |
Good news for the economy. Just okay news for Google (GOOG) After the market close on July 15 Google reported second quarter earnings of $6.45 a share. That was worse than the $6.52 Wall Street analysts had projected. The stock dropped 4.2% or $20.62 in after hours...
July 15, 2010 @ 12:38 pm | Leading Indicators |
Shares of Agricultural Bank of China climbed on the Shanghai stock exchange in the first day of trading after the company’s IPO (initial public offering.) The gain was only 0.8% for the day, but that’s impressive enough since the Shanghai Composite Index was down 1.9%...
July 15, 2010 @ 11:08 am | Leading Indicators |
Good news this morning in China’s report of second quarter GDP growth. Although by no means definitive good news. That is still a quarter or two away. China’s economy grew by 10.3% in the second quarter. That was down from a clearly unsustainable 11.9% in the first...
July 15, 2010 @ 9:56 am | Leading Indicators |
So far, so good for bank stocks. This morning, July 14, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported second quarter earnings of $1.09 a share. Not only was that a 289% increase from the second quarter of 2009 but it beat Wall Street projections for a 159% jump in earnings and...
July 14, 2010 @ 5:17 pm | Leading Indicators |
There was nothing especially scary in today’s retail sales data. There was certainly nothing very surprising. Yes, I know the headlines played up the 0.5% drop in consumer spending in June. And the fact that this marked the second decline in a row after the 1.1% drop...
July 14, 2010 @ 10:48 am | Leading Indicators |
Everybody assumes that official Chinese economic data is cooked. Lower level officials tell their bosses what they think they want to hear. The bosses in turn try to move markets and regulate the economy by their own manipulation of the data. After all it’s a whole...
July 13, 2010 @ 4:13 pm | Leading Indicators |
Live by the rumor; die by the rumor. Maybe they ought to engrave that above the entrance to the Shanghai stock exchange. Yesterday, July 12, the Shanghai Composite index climbed 0.8% to the highest level since June 28 after newspaper reports, essentially unsourced...
July 13, 2010 @ 2:21 pm | AAPL, Leading Indicators |
Well, actually on two blips. The first is the blip—cost to investors about $6.3 billion on a $6.93 a share drop in Apple (AAPL) shares on July 13—created by research from Consumer Reports that argues that the iPhone4 dropped call issues are the result of a hardware...
July 13, 2010 @ 11:39 am | Leading Indicators |
The big news—the news that’s fueling today’s across the board rally in stocks—isn’t the extra two cents that Alcoa (AA) reported in second quarter earnings last night. The company reported earnings of 13 cents a share, two cents a share above Wall Street forecasts....
July 13, 2010 @ 10:30 am | Leading Indicators |
The rally last week—a gain of 5.4% on the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index—puts the stock market in a very interesting position as earnings season starts. (Alcoa ((AA) traditionally kicks off the week and the aluminum maker reported Monday July 12.) Instead of...
July 13, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Leading Indicators |
What exactly don’t investors understand about the phrase “command economy”? I’ve been pondering that question as I watch global financial markets retreat on worries that economic growth in China is going to slow precipitously. I just don’t think that kind of surprise...
July 12, 2010 @ 4:11 pm | Leading Indicators |
It may seem counter-intuitive but bad news on corn supply is usually good news for the stocks of companies that sell stuff to farmers. The dynamic works like this: lower supply means higher prices for the crops that farmers do harvest and that means they’ll have more...
July 12, 2010 @ 3:26 pm | Leading Indicators |
All eyes will be on China’s second quarter GDP numbers when they’re announced on Thursday. Will China’s economy show something like the 11.9% growth of the first quarter (Danger, Will Robinson), or a big drop to 8% (Worryingly too slow) or come in just right? The...
July 12, 2010 @ 12:28 pm | Leading Indicators |
It’s called fuel for the next rally. But it’s better first to think of the money piling up on the sidelines as water building pressure in a pipe. In the week that ended on Wednesday July 7 more money flowed into money market funds—and out of other financial assets...
July 9, 2010 @ 1:52 pm | Leading Indicators |
Today is the calm before the earnings storm. Earnings season starts on Monday July 12 when Alcoa (AA) reports second quarter earnings. And then we’re off to the races with Intel (INTC) reporting on July 13, Google (GOOG) on July 15 and three big banks, JPMorgan Chase...
July 9, 2010 @ 11:49 am | COF, Leading Indicators |
Every analyst on—and many off (including yours truly)—Wall Street is trying to put numbers to the results of the Euro Zone’s bank stress test. In recent days we’ve moved from opinions on which country’s banks will be hit hardest (See my post of yesterday, July 8,...
July 9, 2010 @ 8:30 am | Leading Indicators |
Are stocks cheap now? That’s the question that investors inevitably ask after a drop like the one we’ve seen since the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index hit a high at 1217 on April 23. From that high through the close on July 2 the index dropped almost 16%....
July 8, 2010 @ 5:42 pm | Leading Indicators |
So far we’ve got a bounce. It’s appreciated. The profits, if you’ve made any, are real. Enjoy. But so far that’s all it is. Stocks were badly oversold. They’d fallen too far, too fast as how Wall Street puts it. That created expectations that stocks might rally in the...
July 8, 2010 @ 1:57 pm | Leading Indicators |
More details last night on who and what are in the stress tests now being administered to European banks in an effort to restore confidence in the financial market. First, we now know that 91 banks will be included in the test. And thanks to last night’s release from...
July 8, 2010 @ 9:55 am | Leading Indicators |
Janus, the Roman god of beginnings, transitions, and doorways whose two-faced imaged looked both forward and back, would be proud of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) today. The IMF raised its forecast for global growth this year to 4.6% from the previous 4.2%...
July 7, 2010 @ 4:19 pm | Leading Indicators |
If you’ve been waiting for the three bank stocks I added to Jim’s Watch List on June 25 see my post https://jubakpicks.com/2010/06/25/financial-reform-wont-hit-the-big-banks-anywhere-near-as-hard-as-wall-street-wants-you-to-believe/ )to sell off before putting in a...