Euro (central bank) politics kill the euro rally–dead
If this is what a euro hawk is saying now, the European Central Bank will be in the emergency lending business well into 2011. That would match the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent promise (most recently from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke today, August 27) to continue its...Acquisition fever burns hot–here are three stocks to profit from the frenzy
Acquisition frenzy is upon us. August is on a path to be the second best August ever for acquisitions. Making a profit from one of these deals ought to be as easy as shooting fish in a barrel. Except it’s not. Many of the barrels as completely void of deals: fire away...Platinum gets center stage in South Africa's politics
Turmoil in South Africa’s mining industry. The most immediate and obvious impact will be on global supply of the platinum group of metals. But since the big mining companies involved produce copper, gold, and other metals in their mining of platinum and palladium, the...A smaller but better fertilizer deal?
It doesn’t have the splash of BHP Billiton’s (BHP) $40 billion bid for Potash of Saskatchewan (POT), but Agrium (AGU)’s attempt to snatch AWB, Australia’s largest wheat exporter away from GrainCorp (GRCLF) is actually a more important deal for the acquirer. It looks...Hungarian budget goulash signals next phase in euro crisis
Hungary’s budget crisis isn’t large in size in comparison to those of Greece or Spain, but Hungary’s crisis is a harbinger of the next crisis euro debt crisis. Hungary’s budget crisis raises the question What happens when a country reaches a bailout agreement with...McDonald's financial secret sauce contains yuan
Want some yuan with that Big Mac? On August 19 McDonald’s (MCD) became the first foreign non-financial company to sell yuan-denominated bonds in Hong Kong. The U.S. company sold 200 million yuan (about $30 million) of 3% notes due in September 2013. Standard Chartered...Thinking long term right now is hard–which is why it's worth doing
Vacation’s over. Sigh. But I remember… We had just passed the solar farm—acres and acres of solar cells pointed toward the hot Puglia sun when we hit the traffic jam. A shepherd and his two dogs were guiding about 100 sheep down the road and that had stopped...The new global supply chain means pain for many and opportunities for a few
Foxconn International Holdings, the publicly traded subsidiary of Hon Hai Precision Industry, the world’s largest electronics contract manufacturer, is moving its iPhone production to Zhengzhou in China’s Henan Provence. The company is also moving its iPad...Russia's ban on wheat exports sets the commodity markets on fire
On August 5, Russia banned grain exports for the rest of the year. Drought has destroyed about 20% of the wheat crop of one of the world’s top wheat exporters. The ban will run from August 15 until December 31. At a minimum. Wheat prices, already up 70% this summer,...New rules that will change the game for deepwater drillers
(I’m on vacation until August 24. From now through Friday August 13 I will be posting on a reduced schedule of once or twice a day on Jubak Picks. The site will go completely dark from August 13 to August 24 and then I will resume my normal schedule of posts.)...Peabody's the name if Asian coal is the game
(I am on vacation until August 24. During that time Jubak Picks will operate on a reduced schedule of one or two posts a day.) If China is the story in coal—and I think it is since China is now the No. 1 energy consumer and uses about three times as much coal as the...China's new bank stress test is so tough it signals trouble ahead
Now that’s a stress test. Bank regulators in China said on August 5 that the country’s stress test of its banks will include a worst-case drop in real estate prices of 50% to 60% in the country’s most speculative markets. Take that Euro Zone and even the United...Can China's biggest companies become true global players?
The next six months will test the power—and the limits of that power—of China’s global champions. First, sometime in early 2011 California will decide what company will build the high-speed rail link between Los Angeles and San Francisco. The Japanese companies that...China now the world's biggest consumer of energy
Who is now the biggest energy user on the planet? Not the United States anymore. The U.S. economy is now No. 2, according to the International Energy Agency. In 2009 China took over the No. 1 spot consuming 2.25 billion metric tons of oil equivalent. The U.S. consumed...China's currency moves a little closer to challenging the dollar
(Jim Jubak is on vacation until August 24. During that period I’ll post just once or twice a day on JubakPicks.com. I will resume a full schedule for JubakPicks after August 24.) The renminbi is coming. The renminbi is coming. At this pace it may take a decade...Could reforming Fannie and Freddie wreck the Fed?
And now, fresh off passing the 2300-page Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, Congress promises to address the “problem” of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Be afraid. Be very afraid. Oh, not because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac don’t need to be...Put more fiber in your portfolio
Last night’s bad economic news out of Japan means this one goes on our watch list. As a Japanese company, Toray Industries (TRYIY.PK), moves with Japan’s stock market. But much of its business and most of its growth are from outside Japan. (For more on the bad...China disrupts the oil and gas industry–again
You wouldn’t think that anybody, especially an anybody as savvy as ExxonMobil (XOM), could overlook China. But that may be exactly what ExxonMobil did in formulating its plan to pin the company’s growth on natural gas—and in particular on liquefied natural gas (LNG)....For surprises this a.m. forget US GDP and look to Japan
All eyes will be on the market reaction to the U.S. GDP report this morning. I think you’d be better rewarded by watching Japan. I don’t think the U.S. GDP number for the quarter that ended way back on June 30 addresses any of the market’s real hopes or fears. The...China's banks on the hook for $260 billion in local-government bad loans
That’s one huge bad loan problem. 23% of the $1.1 trillion that Chinese banks have lent to infrastructure projects backed by local governments are likely to go bad, an unnamed source with access to government data has told Bloomberg. The works out to about $260...The pause that tells us where this rally is headed
Now we test this rally. The upward move in the market stalled yesterday, July 28, at technical resistance for the NASDAQ Composite index, which had led the advance. Nothing unexpected there. The NASDAQ Composite is up 10% in just 18 days. That’s enough to convince...Finally–the launch of my new subscription newsletter
It took a little longer than I expected (what with the simultaneous launch of the Jubak Global Equity Fund) but it’s finally here… Ta da!! The Jubak Asset Management newsletter and website. As promised, as my thanks for a year of your loyalty to JubakPicks.com (Yep, I...More cheery numbers from the mortgage front
And now its credit-worthy home owners with prime mortgages that are jumping ship. Foreclosure rates for loans that conform to the guidelines of now government owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have jumped 425% since January 2008. And the monthly rate of foreclosures...China and U.S. credit rating companies step up their name calling
I hope that China’s Dagong Global Credit Rating, the largest credit rating company in China didn’t think that Standard & Poor’s, Fitch Ratings, and Moody’s were going to sit quietly and take it after its head Guan Jianzhong called them names. If you missed it,...Announcing a mutual fund from Jim Jubak
It’s named the Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX). It’s available now. Today. This minute. Follow this link to find out more about how to invest. Or read more here. So why am I starting a mutual fund? Three reasons, really. First, a lot of readers have asked over...It's a wonderful bank
If you were designing a bank now, from scratch, for growth and maximum profits, what kind of bank would you build? Bank earnings to date—from the biggest and most aggressive investment banks such as Goldman Sachs (GS) to the do-everything behemoths such as JPMorgan...Two weeks of summer rally or three days of bounce?
Maybe we’ll get a summer rally after all—but it doesn’t look like a very strong or long one. Still the hope for any rally at all is an improvement over the pessimism that has taken increasingly strong hold of the market since the April high.. Watch the NASDAQ...If China were to have a real estate bust, what would it look like?
The consensus is that China has a real estate bubble. The only argument is whether it will burst in some crash that will take down China’s economy or come in for a relatively soft landing that slows China’s economic growth but in no measure extinguishes it. It’s tough...Brazil is winning its inflation battle faster than expected
Surprise! Brazil’s central bank, Banco Central do Brasil, raised its benchmark Selic interest rate by only 0.5 percentage points yesterday to 10.75%. Expectations had been for a 0.75 point increase. The consensus is that the smaller than expected increase in rates is...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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