Watch my new YouTube video on 5 picks for after the pandemic
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The seventh YouTube video “5 picks for after the pandemic” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
Watch my new YouTube video on 4 stock picks for the chip shortage
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The sixth YouTube video “4 stock picks for the chip shortage” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
2020 was a great year for dividend stocks: my Dividend Portfolio showed a return of 15.71% for 2020
It’s unusual, to say the least, to have a dividend portfolio match the returns on the Standard & Poor’s 500–especially in a year when the S&P 500 was setting an all time high–but that’s what happened in 2020. My Dividend Portfolio...
Ho, Ho, Huh! Is this the shape of this year’s Santa Claus rally to come?
The major indexes aren’t showing much of a move today even on the news that a new coronavirus stimulus/relief bill is like to pass today (along with the massive fiscal 2021 spending bill for the rest of the government.) I think a good part of that lack of...
And now there are three–antitrust lawsuits against Google
Democratic and Republican attorney’s general from 38 states, led by Colorado and Nebraska, have filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google (GOOG). The suit alleges that Alphabet manipulates its search results to give its own products and services greater rankings...
Initial claims for unemployment even worse than expected as coronavirus shutdowns bite
For the week ended December 12, the number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment in regular state programs rose on a seasonally adjusted basis to 885,000, an increase of 23,000 from the previous week. That was the largest gain in the last three months. A...
Dividend Portfolio ahead 14.19% for 2020…so far
While I was calculating (finally) the much delayed performance numbers for my Dividend Portfolio for 2018 and 2019, I thought I’d use the momentum to do the numbers for 2020 to date. For 2018, as I reported, the portfolio lost 15.52% and showed a dividend yield...
Look ahead to a volatile 9 months: Time to chew gum, walk, rub your belly, and pat your head at the same time
As of today, November 3 at 12:30 p.m., I don’t know who will win the Presidential election. I don’t know if the rally in the stock market today, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 up 2.02% at 12:30 p.m. New York time, is a vote for some specific...
Watch out for tomorrow’s very misleading GDP report for the third quarter
I was going to add more downside protection today but I’m putting any Put or short ETF buying off for a day or so–until I see how disruptive to the current downward trend tomorrow the first read on third quarter GDP, to be released tomorrow before the...
Ericsson goes into tomorrow’s earnings riding a lot of momentum
For the second quarter Ericsson (ERIC) reported a 43% positive earnings surprise. Could the company surprise again tomorrow? Analysts are looking for the company to report third quarter earnings on October 21 of 16 cents a share. That would be a huge improvement of...
Passive investing strategies look like they raise risk of big but infrequent spikes in volatility
Readers of on my JubakAM.Com site in comments to a number of my posts recently have been kicking around the question of whether the huge increase in passive investing strategies has changed volatility in the stock market. Passive investment strategies such as indexing...
JPMorgan Chase surprises on earnings–but not in the way that markets had hoped
This morning JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported a “surprise” jump in earnings in the third quarter. The problems in that “surprise” were in the nature of the surprise. A good part of the “surprise” wasn’t a surprise. The bank...
Good vaccine news from Oxford/AstraZeneca–and others today
With 160 coronavirus vaccine candidates under development around the world, it’s not surprising that we would get reports on three successful, if very early, trials today. The coronavirus vaccine that Oxford University is developing with AstraZeneca (AZN) showed...
Why today’s good news shock on jobs comes at a really unfortunate time
I’d argue the last thing we needed today was good news. In case you’re been hiding under a rock, you know that the economy unexpectedly added 2.5 million jobs in May and the unemployment rate fell to 13.3%. (Read my immediately prior post for a run down of...
Jim’s Extra! A near-term threat to the V-shaped recovery
Stock prices–3068.76 on for the Standard & Poor’s 500 as of 1 p.m. New York time today–continue to climb toward the all-time closing record for the S&P 500 at 3386.15 set on February 19. That makes some sense if you believe that the Federal...
Jim’s Extra! Of the 3 reasons I think the re-opening economy will disappoint, the biggest is state budget cuts
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
Jim’s Extra! The S&P 500 isn’t all that passive–and this year’s revisions are going to be big
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
Jim’s Extra!! Deflation or a spike in inflation in 2020-21: A tale of two fatter-than-expected tails
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
What if the helicopter trillions don’t work this time?
Drop money from the sky. Lots and lots of it. Enough to shock a struggling economy out of a deep slump. Milton Friedman coined the term. In Friedman’s scenario the helicopters appear unexpectedly ( I don’t know if they play Wagner) and just dump money on...
Here’s why stocks went up today even with news that the economy contracted by 4.8% in the first quarter
My explanation. See if this makes sense to you. Nothing in the rear view window matters to Wall Street right now. Not first quarter earnings. Not economic growth or the lack thereof. Nothing in the second quarter matters either. Forecasts of a 30% or more drop in...
Jim’s Extra! 5 MORE smart, short-term moves while we wait for longer-term trends to resolve
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...
5 smart, short-term moves while we wait for longer-term trends to resolve
Yesterday in my post “What do you do when the market is insane and you’re not?” I argued that one of the dangers in a very volatile market with strong–and temporarily profitable–short-term trends is that we’ll give in to the...
What do you do when the market is insane and you’re not?
In the short run rationality is not an especially adaptive trait for an investor. Remember that. Take today’s market for example. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) delivered very sobering news on how the coronavirus and the coronavirus shutdown of big...
The coronavirus rescue bill leverages the Fed by $4 trillion to head off a credit crisis–you think it might be serious? Look at the credit card market
On top of the $2.2 billion that the Coronavirus rescue bill now in front of the House of Representatives allocated to checks to individuals, loans and grants to companies, extra unemployment insurance and more, the bill also gave the Treasury the go ahead to backstop...
The U.S. hospital system burns while Washington fiddles
The math is very clear and extremely disturbing. The numbers certainly argue that the coronavirus has the ability to crash the U.S. healthcare system–which would leave hospitals and other healthcare facilities conducting triage among patients with serious cases...
Want a poster child for the disaster in the oil patch? Try Occidental Petroleum
Searching for a case study of why the Saudi Arabia-Russia price war is freaking out Wall Street and the financial markets? Look no further than Occidental Petroleum (OXY). Yesterday the company cut its dividend for the first time in 30 years. And not just by a nickel...
Take Wall Street traders complaints of a lack of liquidity today very, very seriously
Money managers are saying that it’s increasingly difficult to trade due to a lack of liquidity caused by huge swings in asset prices. “I have yet to find liquidity,” Richard Hodges, a money manager at Nomura Asset Management, told Bloomberg. “There is none.”...
Here’s what we know about the date of the next coronavirus spike in U.S.–and the next market panic
So far the United States has tested only about 500 people for the coronavirus. That’s why the number of confirmed cases is so low. But U.S. testing capacity is rising quickly. Which is why the number of confirmed cases is climbing. And why it is about to spike....
Jim’s Extra!! Next big date in the coronavirus selloff? March 18
Jim’s Extras are something new that I’ve added to JubakPicks.com. Jim’s Extras are posts that provide a wider economic or market analysts than the normal diet here of stock specific posts or posts that cover the day’s market moves. Like...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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