Inflation fell in April but not by as much as Wall Street had hoped
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, fell in April to a year over year rate of 8.3%. That was down from an 8.5% rate in March, raising hopes that the economy had seen the inflation peak. But economists had been projecting a drop to 8.0% in April. Which...
The U.S. economy shrank at a 1.4% rate in the first quarter; stocks surge
The U.S. economy unexpectedly shrank at a 1.4% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2022, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday, April 28. The first quarter results follow on a 6.9% growth rate in the fourth quarter. Economists had projected a 1% rate...
Projections of more aggressive Federal Reserve continue to hammer stocks
The financial markets have moved from pricing in 50 basis point increases in the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate at the May 4 and June 15 meetings to considering the possibility that the Fed will increase rates by 75 basis points in June and July. A 25...
Another round of higher oil prices headed our way
Today, April 21, reports from a number of different sources are pointing to lower oil production–which will mean higher oil prices. Even from current levels. And oil prices are significantly higher in the past three weeks. At 3:00 p.m. New York time today U.S....
Tesla crushes earnings
Tesla (TSLA) crushed Wall Street projections for first quarter earnings today, Wednesday, April 20. After the market close, the company reported record revenue of $18.756 billion, up 80.5% from the first quarter of 2021. (Wall Street analysts had expected revenue of...
IMF slashes global economic growth projections again
The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global economic growth in today’s regular update of its World Economic Outlook. The IMF is now projecting global economic growth of 3.6% in 2022. That’s down from a forecast of 4.4% growth in January...
After news of acquisition Pfizer pops 4.33% on day
Pfizer (PFE) will buy privately held respiratory syncytial virus drug maker ReViral for up to $525 million. Wall Street liked the deal–the stock was up 4.33% today, April 7–because it fits with Pfizer’s RNA virus program–which produced a...
Oil tumbles again–I think the selling is an over-reaction
Today, April 6, oil fell to the lowest since mid-March today. U.S.benchmark West Texas Intermediate closed below $97 a barrel at $96.23 (down 4.98%) for May delivery. International benchmark Brent lost 4.63% to close at $101.07 a barrel. The news driving the selloff:...
Is this stock market too directionless to be tradable in the short-term?
On Monday consumer discretionary stocks gained as investors decided risk was again “buyable.” The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) gained 2.25% on the day while the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETFdipped 0.31%. Tuesday,April 5...
China puts Shanghai into Omicron lockdown
The city of 25 million and China’s financial hub began a phased lockdown today. A wave of Omicron infections in Shanghai hit a record of 3,450 daily asymptomatic cases on Sunday. That’s nearly 70% of China’s total. The lock down on eastern side of...
Oil is up, stocks (outside energy) are down–how long will this anti-correlation last?
Oil rallied again today with U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate up 4.79% on the day to $114.79 a barrel and international benchmark Brent up 5.12% to $121.39 a barrel. So, naturally, oil and gas equities stocks are up today. And the broader market is down. What...
Beijing steps in and China stocks soar
Yesterday, March 15, I was thinking that I wished I didn’t own any China stocks at all. Today, March 16, I wished I owned more. Lot’s more. First, China’s top financial policy group vowed to ensure stability in capital markets, support overseas stock...
Airlines climb on oil drop, traffic pickup–now it gets tricky
Oil prices collapsed. And airlines reported a better than expected pick up in traffic. So airline stocks soared with the most stressed operators showing the biggest gains in their shares. Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed up 8.70% on the day. United Airlines (ULA) picked...
Perfect storm of bad news on oil supply sends WTI crude over $120 a barrel
I suppose there is something else that could add to the supply of bad news today on oil supply, but we’ve already got a full dance card At 2 P.m. in New York U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate traded up 5.07% to $121.55 a barrel; international...
Powell tells markets to expect 25 basis point interest rate increase on March 16
Not 0%. But then almost no one expects the Federal Reserve to stand pat on interest rates at its March 16 meeting–even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not 50 basis points. Although many on Wall Street project that the Fed will throw its customary caution...
PCE inflation accelerates in January but not enough to spook markets
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose at a year over year 6.1% rate in January. That tops the 5.8% annual rate in December. Economists had been projecting a 6% increase for January. The core PCE...
Federal Reserve’s January 26 minutes already outdated by inflation, jobs news
Back on January 26–a date so far in the past as to be positively neolithic if judged by changes in financial data–according to minutes of that central bank meeting related today, February 16, Federal Reserve officials concluded that they would start...
Oil moves toward $95 a barrel on rising Ukraine war fears
International benchmark Brent crude jumped as much as 4.7% to $95 a barrel for the first time since 2014. Brent was up 23.68% and trading at $94.77 at 3 p.m. New York time Friday. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate, which normally trades below Brent in price, was...
Disney beats on revenue, earnings–and new streaming subscribers
So much for fears the Disney (DIS) would follow the disappointing course plotted by Netflix (NFLX) and report disappointing numbers for new subscriptions to its Disney Plus streaming service. For the December quarter, the company’s first quarter of fiscal 2022,...
Selling Amazon tomorrow–worrying signs in core e-commerce business
Investors have been really impressed by Amazon’s fourth quarter earnings report. And there were some impressive numbers in the report for the quarter. Amazon’s cloud services unit, AWS, saw revenue growth accelerate again to a 40% growth rate. Revenue...
U.S. economy adds 467,000 jobs in January–more than economists had expected and cementing the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates in March
The U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs in January. The official unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4% from 3.9% in December, as more people moved off the sidelines to enter the labor market. Over the past 12 months, the United States has added nearly 7 million jobs....
The limits of stock market history: it’s not a great guide right now
I’m a big fan of history. I study it. I love reading it. I find the patterns of the past fascinating. Both in themselves and for what they tell us about our own time and the likely future. But…I just don’t think stock market history is a very...
On second look market decides Microsoft earnings were good news
The reaction to Microsoft’s (MSFT) earnings report yesterday after the market close tells you that this market is poised at an earnings inflection point. Earnings, especially technology company earnings, are going to be strong this quarter, but the earnings...
More hedges against Russia/Ukraine conflict and higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve
I only recommend options on my subscription sites JubakAM.Com and JugglingWithKnives.com. Over the weekend I recommended using natural gas stocks as a way to hedge the risk of a Russia/Ukraine conflict and ensuing sanctions against Russia. I recommended shares of...
Putting on hedges for a Russia-Ukraine conflict today (as in NOW)
I only recommend options on my subscription sites JubakAm.Com and JugglingWithknives.com. And this week on those sites I’ve closed the two VIX CALL Options I bought back on December 31 as protection (and potential profits) from an increase in market volatility...
It’s a bull market on inflation fears and scary Fed forecasts–which is actually a good thing
Once upon a time there was a stock market with what the central bank called “transitory” inflation. Wall Street money managers worried that the central bank was behind the curve on fighting inflation and projected that interest rates would go up in...
It’s official: NASDAQ Composite is in a correction (thanks to the continued rout in tech stocks)
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 1.15% on Wednesday, January 19. That marked the first close for the index in correction territory since March. (The common definition of a correction is a drop of 10% or more.) The technology-heavy index is down 8.3% so far in...
People’s Bank moves to juice China’s economy earlier than I expected
Today, the People’s Bank of China cut its key interest rate for the first time in almost two years to help support China’s economy. The People’s Bank of China lowered the rate at which it provides one-year loans to banks by 10 basis points. Not a huge...Big banks deliver mixed start to Q4 earnings season with JPMorgan down and Wells Fargo up
Sing along: One of these banks is not like the others. One of these banks doesn’t belong. This morning big money center banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Citigroup (C) delivered disappointing reports on fourth quarter revenue and earnings. Shares of JPMorgan Chase...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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