All eyes on the Fed’s Dot Plot after Wednesday’s meeting
The Dot Plot is a feature of every quarterly meeting of the Federal Reserve. It tracks changes in the consensus (and range) of opinion at the Fed on core macro economic issues such as inflation and interest rates. And, most importantly, it tracks changes in opinion at...
Odds of a Fed interest rate increase move up–for December
Yesterday’s report of a slight uptick in inflation has pushed odds higher for a December interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve. The report, however, had no effect on odds in the Fed Funds Futures market for an increase at the Fed’s September 20...
Wall Street starts to pick at the new iPhones–and at Apple shares
Wall Street has started to pick at the details of Apple’s (AAPL) September 12 iPhone event. And it’s not liking all the details on second (or third) look. Apple’s shares finished down 0.86% today, September 14. Apple has closed lower in all three...
Autoliv soars on news that the company might split its auto businesses in two
Shares of Autoliv (ALV) soared today, closing up 12.26% to $127.14, on news that the company’s Board of Directors has authorized management to conduct a strategic review of splitting the current company into two new companies focused on passive auto safety and...
Natural gas stocks up today on rise in LNG prices in Asia
Shares of natural gas producers and liquefied natural gas exporters climbed strongly today as prices for liquefied natural gas in Asia rose to s seven-month high in reaction to the damaged inflicted on Gulf Coast terminals by Hurricane Harvey. It didn’t hurt...
Here we go again: Oil supply and demand “near” to balancing
If you think you’ve heard this before, you’re absolutely right. Nonetheless, oil rallied today on a forecast from the International Energy Agency that oil stockpiles in developed countries could hit or fall below their five-year average “very...
Time to move on from trading SDRL
Seadrill (SDRL) was scheduled to file for a pre-packaged bankruptcy today. Â When it didn’t, the shares soared. Before finishing the day up 17.46%–a 3 cents a share gain to 23 cents–the stock was up as much as 31.17% as of noon in New York. If...
Financials continue to rally in wake of reports of less damage than expected in Florida from Irma
Yesterday forecasts of lower than expected damage from Hurricane Irma were enough to light a fire under shares of insurance companies, the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) and the market as a whole. Yesterday shares of Swiss RE and Munich RE, two re-insurers that...
Adding a gold ETF on today’s drop in the metal on hurricane, North Korea relief
I’m adding the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) to my Jubak Picks and Volatility portfolios today. Gold has sold off today with worries over a new missile test from North Korea in abeyance. And with traders relieved–and apparently surprised–to discover...
Nothing but good news for markets from European Central Bank today
At today’s meeting the European Central Bank announced that it would leave interest rates at their current low levels and continue to buy debt assets at the current monthly rate. Â In his post-meeting press conference ECB president Mario Draghi noted that...
Two typhoons don’t dent casino revenue growth in Macao
Casino revenue in Macao climbed by a year over year 20% in August, marking a 13th consecutive month of growth–despite two typhoons the left half of the city without power and water for as many as four days. Analysts had been looking for 17% to 22% growth in...
It’s a new month but the same old Congress–as a debt-ceiling deal descends into usual chaos
Please extend the greeting of your choice to the U.S. Congress, back in “action” today after a long August recess. This morning Democrats said they would vote for a disaster relief package for victims of Hurricane Harvey if Republicans attached the measure...
Enjoy those Labor Day festivities
Happy Labor Day. Which also marks the end of summer, sigh. (Although the financial markets in the United States are closed, hurrah!) Hope you’ve had a great season of sun and fun. Give a thought to everybody who works in this very tough environment and everybody...
How will Apple’s new iPhone match up with the competition from Samsung’s Note 8? Here’s what we know
I’m on vacation until September 6. I wrote this post on August 25 before I left. Back on August 24 I wrote a post rating the snazz of the new Note 8, the top of the line smartphone that Samsung had just introduced. The Note 8, I wrote, set the bar for the high...
What? Wait a minute! Not everything is perfect at Alibaba?
I’m on vacation until September 6. I wrote this post on August 24 before I left. On August 17 Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) reported another blowout quarter. Non-GAAP earnings per share climbed 65% and revenue rose 56%. And… on its conference call Alibaba...
Cummins reports solid second quarter and shows progress in moving to electric truck market
I’m on vacation until September 7. I wrote this update on portfolio holding Cummins on August 22. Â On August 1 Cummins (CMI) reported second quarter earnings of $2.53 a share. That was 3 cents a share below Wall Street estimates. Revenue climbed 12% year over...
Tencent crushes revenue growth; margins slip
I’m on vacation until September 7. I wrote this update on portfolio holding Tencent Holdings on August 21. Â On August 16 Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) reported second quarter year over year revenue growth of 59%. That was the highest revenue growth in the last seven...
Hurricane Harvey is demonstrating the new world of oil prices–and I’m selling refiner Marathon Petroleum into the storm
With Hurricane Harvey barreling down on the Gulf Coast complex of refineries and oil terminals, you might have expected the price of gasoline to rise yesterday, August 24, on fears of a shutdown of supply. And it did. The price of gasoline climbed 2.35% yesterday on...
Yellen tells Trump exactly what he’ll get if he reappoints her to head the Federal Reserve
If President Donald Trump reappoints current Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen to a new term in February 2018, no one will be able to say truthfully that he didn’t know exactly what kind of chair he would be getting. Not after her speech today at the Kansas...
Samsung introduces Note 8–this is the bar that new iPhone will have to jump
Just in case you might be tempted to forget that Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone 8 (or whatever) won’t be introduced into a world without competing smart phones, Samsung introduced its own attempt to climb to the top of the smartphone market today. The Note 8 is...
The bond market gets nervous about the debt ceiling and other DC shenanigans
You wouldn’t know that there was anything to worry about from the U.S. stock market. So what that the President of the United States has threatened to shut down the government unless Congress funds The Wall. So what that the promised tax cuts so near and dear to...
Trump’s threat to shut down the government if Congress doesn’t vote funding to build The Wall unnerves Wall Street today
We all know, somewhere inside our heads and hearts, that getting Congress to pass a debt ceiling increase by the September 29 deadline set by the Treasury Secretary, and also to pass a budget or at least a continuing resolution to fund operations of the government...
Pioneer earnings got the whole oil shale worry thing started
Back on August 1 Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) reported second quarter earnings of 21 cents a share, beating the Wall Street consensus by 10 cents a share. Revenue climbed 107% year over year to $1.63 billion, way ahead of the Wall Street consensus at $1.06 billion....
Today’s market move looks pretty random to me–but here are a few possible trends to watch
Lots of folks out this morning trying to explain why U.S. stocks are up so strongly today after Thursday’s thrashing and two lackluster trading session on Friday and Monday. One explanation I’m hearing a lot is that President Donald Trump sounded...
Trying to put a date and figure on the peak in U.S. oil production
How soon will U.S. oil production from wells in oil shale geologies peak? It’s the big question for U.S. oil producers and for a global oil market swimming in excess inventory. As long as U.S. oil production continues to increase all of OPEC’s production...
Quiet day so far but trends intact under surface
A very subdued market so far (at 2 p.m. New York time) today. Maybe its the solar eclipse. After all who wants to put on a long position when the sun is about to be eaten by dragons? As of 2 p.m. the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was up just 0.06%. But...
Why the bump up in copper yesterday could go on for a while (Hint: It’s about electric cars)
On August 16, yesterday, copper for September delivery climbed 2.84%. The proximate cause was a new projection from the International Monetary Fund raising China’s growth rate for 2017 to 6.7% in 2017. That’s up from an earlier forecast of 6% growth. For...
Market sinks; volatility climbs on strong economic news, D.C. chaos
The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index closed down 1.54% today and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.94%. Gold picked up 0.87%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) broke above 15 again, soaring 31.94% on the day. There was just too much for the markets to...
Today it’s copper
Copper for September delivery closed up 2.84% today. Copper stocks did even better with Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold (FCX) closed up 5.73% for example. Southern Copper (SCCO) ended the day ahed 3.37%. And First Quantum Minerals (FQVLF) traded up 10.14%. So...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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