I’m buying China’s online travel leader CTRP for my Jubak Picks portfolio today
There are three things to think about before buying Ctrip.com International (CTRP), the leader in China’s online travel market. Two of these things are positive and one negative. I think the balance comes down on the positive side but the negative element means...
Weaker than expected expansion in China’s economy–problem seems to be in private sector
The Caixin Service Sector Purchasing Managers Index fell to 50.6 in September. That’s the lowest level since December 2015 and 2.1 points below the August survey. In this index anything above 50 indicates that the economy or the sector is expanding so...
My fifth pick for my new ETF portfolio is now available
Please note that as I wrote in announcing this new ETF portfolio, the first three ETF picks for my new Perfect 5 ETF Active Passive Portfolio were the last that I’ll be posting on my free Jubak Picks site. If you want to get the last two picks and/or to follow...
Jobs numbers drop for September after hurricanes
It took three hurricanes to stall the momentum in the jobs market, but in the aftermath of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, in September the U.S. economy saw its first drop in the number of jobs since September 2010. This breaks the historic 83-month run of monthly...
My fourth pick for my new ETF portfolio is now available
Please note that as I wrote in announcing this new ETF portfolio, the first three ETF picks for my new Perfect 5 ETF Active Passive Portfolio were the last that I’ll be posting on my free Jubak Picks site. If you want to get the last two picks and/or to follow...
Initial claims fall setting up positive surprise in September jobs report tomorrow?
Initial claims for unemployment fell by 12,000 to 260,000 for the week ended September 30. Economists survyed by Briefing.com had projected initial claims of 265,000 for the week. The initial claims total remained below the 300,000 level that economists use as a...
The heavy truck market takes a another big step toward recovery–and that’s good for Cummins
North American orders for Class 8 heavy trucks jumped 62% year over year in September and analysts and economists are predicting that a strong U.S. economy will push orders even higher in the fourth quarter. Net orders for heavy trucks, the semis that haul freight on...
Oil up on U.S. inventories and then down on export numbers
Oil started the day rallying on a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration for a draw down of 6 million barrels in U.S.crude inventories for the week ended September 29. And then oil fell on reports of a surge in U.S. oil experts large enough to raise...
My third pick for my new ETF portfolio: A gold ETF
For my third pick for my new Perfect 5 ETF Active Passive Portfolio I looked to fill the Commodities slot in the portfolio with an ETF that would provide a hedge for the portfolio if the market tumbled but that would also produce a positive return if the market...
My second pick for my new Perfect 5 ETF portfolio, a European stock ETF
For my second pick for my new actively allocated, passive ETF portfolio, I’m going to keep working on the equity core. To yesterday’s pick of the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), today I’m adding the SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 ETF (FEZ). This ETF...
My first pick for my new Perfect Five ETF portfolio
Let’s start with the core of any ETF portfolio for a U.S.-based investor: U.S. equities. But what’s the choice for the next, say, six months? In 2017 the major indexes have taken turns leading the pack. One quarter it’s the turn of the small caps in...
Some signs the bottom is in for Incyte
This qualifies as a horrendous six months for any stock: Shares of Incyte (INCY) are down from $152.66 on March 15 to $115.19 at the close today, October 2. The shares have been even lower, which is one thing giving me some hope that the pain is coming to an end. The...
Why a portfolio of “passive” ETFs requires active management by you–announcing my new ETF portfolio to do just that
Can I clear up one bit of confusion? ETFs are indeed passively managed investment vehicles. Their portfolios passively follow indexes rather than allocating money into the picks of a fund manager. But portfolios of ETFs put together by investors aren’t–and...
U.S. manufacturing sector strengthens in September
It’s hard to interpret today’s report on manufacturing from the Institute for Supply Management because of the damage inflicted on the U.S. economy by hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, but it certainly looks like the economy is strengthening,. The ISM...
How much risk and reward are there in Schlumberger’s new business model? Does this stock remain a long-term 50 Stocks portfolio pick?
Schlumberger’s (SLB) next quarterly earnings report on October 20 will be a major test of the company’s new business model. I hold the shares in my long-term 50 Stocks portfolio. For me the quarter will provide an early indication of how much volatility...
Slightly lower than expected inflation reported this morning hasn’t (so far) dented expectations for December 13 Fed interest rate increase
For August the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, showed an increase in core inflation of just 0.1%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected an increase of 0.2% for the month. Year over...
$1,000 is that HUGE middle class tax cut?
The 9-page outline of a tax cut plan released by President Donald Trump left a lot of details to be filled in later. For example, what about the President’s promise that middle class American would see a huge tax cut? Well, today Gary Cohn, currently chief...
Winners from Trump tax cuts in an unexpected (perhaps) stock market sector
President Donald Trump has proposed cutting the top line corporate tax rate to 20%. What stocks might get a boost from any anticipation of that proposal becoming law? First, recognize that until very recently the stock market wasn’t doing a very good job at...
Odds of a December interest rate increase soaring
The financial markets are taking Janet Yellen seriously. In a speech yesterday the Fed chair strongly supported an interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve’s December 13 meeting. Coming along with comments from other Fed governors, the markets have decided...
Will third quarter earnings support record prices in stocks?
I know it’s quaint, but let’s take a look a fundamentals–specifically estimated earnings for the third quarter of 2017. With stocks near record highs, it would be reassuring if the quarter was showing solid forecasted earnings growth. Here’s...
Chesapeake Energy lowers production forecast
Today, Chesapeake Energy (CHK), the second largest U.S. producer of natural gas, said that it expects to see production in the third quarter of 542,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day versus the previous estimate of 550,000. The company also lowered its forecast for...
Facebook cancels plans for Class C stock; Zuckerberg to sell 35-70 million shares in next 18 months
The good news is that Facebook (FB) has cancelled plans to create a new C class of shares. Let’s be very clear, Class C shares like these that give a seller, such as CEO Mark Zuckerberg, the ability to sell millions of shares while continuing to control voting...
Tech breakdown starts to look serious
The conventional wisdom at the end of last week was that we were witnessing a rotation out of tech shares and into financials and small cap stocks. In other words, nothing to get  too concerned about. Apple (AAPL) was a special case as surveys of retail channels...
China’s credit rating takes a hit from S&P
Standard & Poor’s lowered its credit rating on China’s sovereign debt by one step to A+ on Thursday. The cut is the first ratings reduction since 1999. S&P cited the risks from the growing debt levels in China’s government and corporate sector as...
More saber rattling in Korean standoff leads to modest increase in market nervousness
It’s not surprising that the major U.S. stock indexes are down today. So far today the North Korean foreign minister has said that President Donald Trump’s threats against his country amount to a declaration of war, and that North Korea has the right to...
Buy Arco Dorados Holdings in my Jubak Picks portfolio
Arco Dorados Holdings (ARCO) is a twofer. The New York traded ADRs of the largest operator of McDonald’s (MCD) franchises in the world, is soaring on the recovery in its two biggest markets Brazil and Argentina. The ADRs are up 76.7% in 2017 as of the close on...
No surprises from the Fed–for 2017 anyway
At today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market committee, the central bank kept its benchmark short-term interest rate unchanged at 1% to 1.25%, and announced that it would implement its plan to shrink its $4.5 trillion balance sheet by $10...
OPEC meets Friday and oil market moves into “guessing” phase
Want to play along as the oil market tries to guess what OPEC will do at its Friday meeting? Â West Texas Intermediate moved down, slightly, to $49.56 a barrel, a 0.7% retreat, as of 3 p.m. New York time. International benchmark Brent moved 0.52% lower to $55.19 a...
All eyes on the Fed’s Dot Plot after Wednesday’s meeting
The Dot Plot is a feature of every quarterly meeting of the Federal Reserve. It tracks changes in the consensus (and range) of opinion at the Fed on core macro economic issues such as inflation and interest rates. And, most importantly, it tracks changes in opinion at...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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