The July 7 jobs report will be decisive for the Fed on interest rates
I expect the Friday, July 7, jobs report for June to be decisive in the Federal Reserve’s July 26 decision to raise/not-to-raise its benchmark interest rates. The CME FedWatch Tool current calculates the odds of a 25 basis point increase at 86.2%. The Bureau of...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week U.S. Economy Last Man Standing
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-ninety-second YouTube Video: Trend of the Week U.S. Economy Last Man Standing Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5...
What does the Federal Reserve have to do to slow the U.S. consumer?
This morning all the way in New York I could hear the gnashing of teeth from Jerome Powell’s office at the Federal Reserve. “What do we have to do to slow consumer spending in the Untied States?” he cried after this morning’s economic data....
Please WatchMy New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Eli Lilly
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-ninety-first YouTube Video: Quick Pick Eli Lilly (LLY) Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free download for...U.S. heat wave to expand–but it’s not just a U.S. problem
Heat advisories now stretch from northern Florida to southern New Mexico, and excessive-heat warnings have been issued for much of Texas and parts of New Mexico and Arizona and along the Gulf Coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. New Orleans is included in the...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Inflation Deserves a Bigger Role in Your Portfolio
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-eighty-seventh YouTube Video: Inflation Deserves a Bigger Role in Your Portfolio Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5...
Buying Zimmer Biomet for the long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio
I made Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) Pick #6 in my “10 Stocks for Your Core Portfolio.” Now I’m adding it to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. Here’s what I wrote in that earlier post. “Core Portfolio Pick #6: Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH). Seems...
Did a Powell deal with the inflation hawks on a June pause guarantee a a 25 basis point increase in interest rates at the July 26 meeting?
I find that I don’t agree very often with Larry Summers, former Treasury Secretary, about the financial markets. His thinking is just too much “Big Banker” in my opinion. Which doesn’t mean he’s always wrong, however. And recently...
Selling ConocoPhillips on increased Russian oil refinery production
My baseline assumption is that Russia will cheat on its promises to cut oil production whenever and wherever it can. The country is crushed between the need for more oil revenue to finance the war in Ukraine and falling oil prices. The one way out of that dilemma is...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick 2-year Treasury Buy Recommendation Followup
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-eighty-third YouTube Video: FOMO is Back Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free download for subscribers to...
So you knew that most of this year’s stock market gains came from just a few BIG tech stocks–but did you know the difference was this big?
You’ll find the answer to that question at the end of all this explainin’ I’ve been hammering away at how narrow this market rally is. Most of the gains have gone to investors in just a handful of very big technology stocks. You know that. But did...
My 10 stocks for a core portfolio–you’ll have to sign up as a member (it’s free) to read the post with all the “why’s” in the Jim’s Extra section of this site
I think a well-constructed portfolio should resemble an onion. (Yes, to continue the analogy, it may make you cry in the short term, but the end result after cooking time is yummy.) At the center of that onion is a core built of stocks with extremely high,...
Your 10 Best Stocks for a Core Portfolio–and the “Why” for each pick
I think a well-constructed portfolio should resemble an onion. (Yes, to continue the analogy, it may make you cry in the short term, but the end result after cooking time is yummy.) At the center of that onion is a core built of stocks with extremely high,...
The Fed’ s political problem just about guarantees a pause to interest rate increases tomorrow
They call it the “headline CPI” for a reason. Today all the headlines I’ve seen tout the drop in headline inflation, the all-items Consumer Price Index, in May to an annual inflation rate of 4.0%. In April the annual inflation rate was 4.9%. The...
Russia looks to be cheating on its oil production cuts
The Russian government insists that the country has cut oil output as promised. But all the available numbers day that Russian crude oil is flowing at above levels agreed with OPEC. Of course, it’s hard to tell because Russia has stopped reporting key export...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Should You Sell Nvidia?
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-eighty-first YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Should You Sell Nvidia? Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free...
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick 2-year Treasuries
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-eighth YouTube Video: Quick Pick 2-year Treasuries Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free download for...
Look for an opportunity to buy Treasuries
Look for an opportunity to buy Treasuries at a short-term peak in yields. With a debt filing extension in effect and default off the table, the U.S. Treasury can now turn to the task of rebuilding its cash buffer. That means selling lots of Treasury bills, notes, and...My 10 Stocks for the AI Gold Rush–Why these picks?
Artificial intelligence really is a paradigm-breaking, transformative technology. Right now, investors are so enthusiastic about the sector, especially the obvious leader Nvidia (NVDA), that we’re looking at a potential bubble that will collapse with much...
So how much damage is this debt ceiling fracas going to do to the economy? A deal could still cost the economy 570,000 jobs
We all know that a continued standoff on the debt ceiling would be bad for the U.S. economy and financial markets. But even a deal along current lines is going to cost jobs–lots of jobs–and take a bite out of economic growth, according to Bloomberg...
Everybody is busy drawing red lines in the debt ceiling talks–and they keep moving
This reporting from the Washington Post this morning makes me very pessimistic about any debt ceiling deal until after the first checks DON’T go out on June 1 or whenever. “During a closed meeting Tuesday morning at a GOP hangout a block from the U.S....
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Gold with a Copper Kicker
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-seventy-sixth YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Gold with a Copper Kicker Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years:...
It’s not over until it’s over: More Fed officials talk about more interest rate increases
Last week Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed could hold off on another interest rate increase at its June 14 meeting. That comment wz one reason that the CME FedWath tool showed the odds of no increase at the meeting jumping to 82.6% on Friday, May...
Today Target echoes yesterday’s caution from Home Depot on consumer spending
Target (TGT) easily beat Wall Street earnings projections for the company’s fiscal first quarter with a report yesterday May 16 after the close with a report of $2.05 a share. Analysts were looking for $1.80 a share. Earnings were down, however, 6.2%...
Consumer credit showing signs of stress
The typical pattern is for households to run up credit card balances for holiday shopping and then for consumers to pay down credit card balances in the first quarter. That’s what happens in a healthy economy where consumers are living within their means and...
Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Credit Squeeze
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-seventy-third YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Credit Squeeze Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free...
Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Albemarle
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-seventy-second YouTube Video: Quick Pick Albemarle Want to grow your portfolio and protect it too? In the toughest investing market in 40 years? Grab my eBook, Your Best Investing Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Free download for...
The problem with Goldilocks (if you’re an investor or trader)
The Producer Price Index rose 0.25% in April from March and at a 2.3% rate year-over-year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, May 11. This index measures prices at the wholesale level–changes at that level eventually show up in the prices that...
April CPI inflation report doesn’t settle anything about Fed rates or rate cuts
CPI inflation ticked lower in April with the all-items (headline) inflation rate nudging down to a year-over-year 4.9%. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, also slipped lower to a year-over-year 5.5% from a 5.6% rate in March. On a month-to-month...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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