PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, comes in unexpectedly hot in September
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, accelerated to a four-month high in September. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in September...
Buy (more) of the ProShares Short Russell 2000 ETF to short small caps in this credit crisis
Buy the ProShares Short Russell 2000 ETF (RWM) to short small cap stocks I wrote last night in my Special Report: 8 steps to protect your portfolio from the global debt bomb on my subscription JubakAM.Com site. Here’s what I wrote then: The small-cap stocks that...
Selling utilities Duke and NiSource on higher yields elsewhere
Today, in my Special Report: 8 steps to Protect Your Portfolio from the Globlal Debt Bomb on my JubakAM.Com subscription site, I advised raising some cash my selling two utility stocks, Duke Energy (DUK) and NiSource (NI) out of my Dividend Portfolio. Here’s...
More technical breakdowns: NASDAQ falls into correction
The NASDAQ Composite was still up 23.75% as of the close on October 25. But the index is now down 12.2% from its July 31 high as of the close on October 26. That’s correction territory. And right now the index looks inclined to hold its downward trend for a...
At 4.9%, third quarter GDP growth is even hotter than feared
The U.S. economy grew by an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, the strongest pace since 2021 and twice the pace of growth in th second quarter. Before the report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting annual growth...
Tech earnings take spotlight this week–but we also get consumer and oil company reports
Hope you like earnings news. This week brings a ton of third-quarter earnings reports with news from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet quite capable of moving the entire market. We’ll also get more consumer company (Coca-Cola and Kimberly-Clark for...
Thursday GDP report expected to show a too “hot” economy
The expected strong GDP growth report for the third quarter to be released on Thursday will send the bond market wild again. The U. S. economy, economists project, grew at the fastest rate in nearly two years in the third quarter. The actual figures from the Bureau of...
Good news on growth from China
The last thing the global economy needs right now is an economic disappointment on growth from China. And fortunately, today China reported third quarter GDP rose by 4.9% year over year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That’s better than...
Procter & Gamble, like PepsiCo, reports higher revenue on lower volumes
There’s a pattern here: If you’re a big enough consumer goods company with the ability to raise prices and not hurt sales, then the just-ended quarter was a pretty good quarter. Today, October 18, Proctor & Gamble reported fiscal first quarter net...
Retail sales stronger than expected; Treasury prices fall and yields surge (some more)
Retail sales in September rose by 0.7% from August, the Commerce Department reported today. That was more than twice the Wall Street projection of 0.3% growth. I would note that these retail sales numbers are not adjusted for inflation. So yes, they may be...
This week earnings bring a test of regional bank stocks
In the coming week I expect a big earnings test for regional banks and a feW clues about consumer goods, airlines, and autos. Last week ended with great earnings reports from Big Banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C). Big Bank earnings...
We’re looking at a global debt bomb
“Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!” Monty Python observed back in 1970 before attempting to torture a coal-miner’s wife with a dish rack. There’s an important investing version of this core truth: The financial market usually worries...
Just enough in today’s CPI inflation report to keep one more rate increase for 2023 on the table
Today’s Consumer Price Index report on inflation had just enough bad news on inflation to keep one more interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve on the table for 2023. The all items CPI inflation rate rose 0.4% in September from August. That was slightly...
PepsiCo beats on earnings, raises guidance
Clearly, inflation isn’t bad for everyone. Not if you have pricing power, anyway. Today, PepsiCo (PEP) reported earnings and sales that a beat Wall Street estimates, and raised its guidance for the next quarter. PepsiCo reported third quarter fiscal 2023...
News with the potential to move the markets this week: CPI inflation, Fed minutes, bank earnings
In one of my recent posts I wrote that the trend for the market is very uncertain at the moment and very dependent on news. This week will bring some of the news that will determine the market trend. Here’s a list in order of my sense of importance to the...
Exxon Mobil in talks to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion–I’m selling my position on Monday
The Wall Street Journal has reported that Exxon Mobil (XOM) is in advanced talks to buy Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) in a deal valued at $60 billion. Pioneer currently has a market cap of $55 billion. Throw in the debt that Exxon would be buying and there’s...
Selling 2 gold positions out of my portfolios tomorrow
Gold was up 1.9% in trading on COMEX today to $1876 an ounce on war in Israel and Gaza and fears that it would become a wider conflict in the region. I’ve been looking for an exit from two of my gold positions for a while now. And tomorrow is a good exit point,...
Will we see a market trend emerge this week from Friday’s big volatility day?
I’m hoping for some clarity this week on the market trend after Friday’s wild day. Friday’s intraday moves summed up the uncertainty about the direction of this market. After the huge surprise on the September jobs number, stocks fell immediately out...
So how high will yields go? I’m hearing 6% or even 7%
Today the yield on the 10-year Treasury closed at 4.71%. That was down 2 basis points on the day but in the last year the yield is up 96 basis points. Almost a full percentage point. How high can yields go? Bond traders and investors want to know. Investors in other...
The bond plunge (and soaring yields) isn’t limited to the United States
Yesterday, October 3, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury hit 5% for the first time since 2007. The yield on the German 10-year bond hit 3% for the first time since 2011. In one financial market after another higher U.S. yields are driving global bond prices lower...
Good news for inflation, interest rates, the Fed in today’s ADP jobs number if we can believe it
Private payrolls rose by just 89,000 jobs in September, according to figures published today by the ADP Research Institute. That’s the fewest jobs added in a month since the start of 2021. Private payrolls climbed 180,000 in August. The results trailed all...
The VIX Call Options I bought on my subscription JAM.com site are up 38% since September 25–hold ’em
The VIX, the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, climbed another 12.32% today, October 2, to 19.78. The Call Options–with a strike at 17 and an expiration on December 20–I bought on the VIX on September 25 are up 38% as of the close on October 2. (I hold...
The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped another 13 basis points today, October 3
Where did the slow-moving, deep and placid Treasury market go? The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury–you know the one used to set the interest rate on things like mortgages–moved up another 13 basis points today, October 3, to 4.80%. That’s a...
I’ll be selling Nvidia out of my Volatility Portfolio (on my JAM subscription site) tomorrow
I’m going to take advantage of today’s pop in Nvidia (NVDA) to sell the shares out of my very short-term Volatility Portfolio tomorrow on my subscription JAM.com site, Tuesday, October 2. The shares closed up at the close today at $447.82, a gain of 2.95%...
Could be a rocky day for Tesla shares tomorrow, Monday.
It could be a rough day ahead for Tesla (TSLA).The company has broken four quarterly car delivery records in a row, but then the results for the current quarter–which could be announced as early as Monday, Ocroer 2, are likely to show that deliveries have...
45 days to the next government funding crisis?
The odds of another government shutdown “crisis” in 45 days will rise or fall with Representative Matt Gaetz’s (R-Florida) efforts to remove House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Gaetz and a small harder core of the hard core Republican right in the House...
Consumer showing signs of stress in August
Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.1% last month. The report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed inflation-adjusted spending on services rose 0.2%, helped by a pickup in outlays on transportation and recreation. Spending on merchandise fell 0.2%, the...
Low inflation in Fed’s favorite indicator says No interest rate increase at November 1 meeting
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE), rose at the slowest monthly pace in August since late 2020. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out food and energy prices,...
Looking for signs of weakness in consumer spending? Did we just get one?
Today’s revisions of second quarter GDP showed that U.S. consumer spending grew only half as fast as reported in earlier estimates on the quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, rose an annualized 0.8% in the...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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