So what’s behind today’s plunge in U.S. stocks?
Okay, so the announcement of U.S. tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods didn’t help the market today. But U.S. stocks, which had been down 1.30% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 at 11 a.m. and down 1.38% for the Dow Jones Industrials, didn’t...
Markets trying to get ahead of today’s tariff news
The only thing that is (relatively) certain is that President Trump will announce $50 billion in tariff and other trade restrictions aimed at China. That announcement is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. today in Washington. There’s plenty of speculation today about the...
Fed raises interest rates and marks steeper path on future increases
Well, it wasn’t unexpected so stocks didn’t plunge. But it is still close to what the financial markets feared. Today, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark short term interest rate another 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%.  And forecast a...
Oil up strongly this morning on inventory draw down
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported this morning that U.S. crude oil inventories fell 2.62 million barrels for the week ended March 16. Â Last week inventories rose by 5 million barrels. Â As of 11:20 a.m. New York time U.S. benchmark West Texas...
10-year Treasury yields may be stuck in a range but the LIBOR interest rate benchmark keeps climbing steadily higher
Ahead of tomorrow’s interest rate announcement from the Federal Reserve, 10-year Treasury yields remain stuck just below 2.90%. The bond market just can’t seem to admit that the Fed might raise interest rates three times in 2018–let alone a potential...
Adding Independent Bank to my Dividend Portfolio
Just in case you haven’t noticed, it’s really, really hard at the moment to find a decent dividend yield in a stock that doesn’t require taking on substantial risk. That’s what happens when you’ve got elevated asset prices after a long...
$60 billion in China tariffs coming as soon as Friday, Washington Post reports
The Washington Post reports tonight that President Donald Trump is preparing to impose a package of $60 billion in annual tariffs against Chinese products. The tariff package, which Trump plans to unveil by Friday, was confirmed to the Washington Post by four senior...
The pace of the week just picks up from here
Today was supposed to ease us into a week with just too much big macro potentially market-moving news. So much for easing. Thanks, Facebook. Weeks like this don’t come around often, thank goodness, but when they do, Whew! Monday eases investors and traders in...
Turning around the Jubak Picks portfolio: It takes time (frustrating amounts of time) but by late 2016 the recovery was in place: 2017 total return 13.13% despite 27.2% cash
Turning around a portfolio can take a frustratingly long time. The Jubak’s Picks portfolio has had a performance problem since 2014. But I think I’ve finally put a recovery in place. The total return on the portfolio was 13.1% in 2017. That still badly...
What’s behind this morning’s drop? Not what the talking heads are claiming
As of 11:30 a.m. New York time this morning, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock index was down 1.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 1.02%. And the technology heavy NASDAQ was lower by 1.84%. Much of the talk this morning has centered on news from...
Markets decide that economic data today show a glass half full
The U.S. stock market decided that today’s economic reports showed a glass half full. Interpretations pointing in the other direction, however, were easy enough to make so the end result wasn’t so much a wave of optimism lifting markets strongly higher as...
How to manage risk in this market when the traditional risk safe havens aren’t working
If you spend a significant part of your day staring at your computer to watch the markets, you know that, perplexingly, the traditional safe havens for mitigating portfolio risk haven’t been working very well. For example, gold, which is supposed to go up when...
FDA sets next date for Incyte arthritis drug, baricitinib
The Food and Drug Administration today announced that its Arthritis Advisory Committee will meet on April 23 to discuss the application by Incyte (INCY) and Eli Lilly (LLY) for approval of baricitinib for the treatment of adult patients with moderately to severely...
Initial claims support belief in strong March job growth report
Initial claims for unemployment for the week ended March 10 fell by by 4,000 to 226,000. That was in-line with projections from economists surveyed by Briefing.com. This is the 158th consecutive week that new claims for unemployment have been below 300,000. The less...
I think they’re really going to do it: My odds on the Trump administration targeting China in a tariff war went up to 70% today
Today the White House announced  that President Donald Trump has picked Larry Kudlow to replace Gary Cohn as director of the White House National Economic Council. Kudlow worked as an economic advisor to President Reagan where he was a dedicated believer in...
Retail sales fall in February raising possibility that fourth quarter GDP growth was lower than initially reported
U.S. retail sales fell for a third straight month in February–down 0.1%. The Commerce Department revised January sales higher than the initially reported 0.3% decline. But that still left January sales down 0.1%. That means that February marks a third...
CPI inflation comes in on the mark–no surprises ahead of March 21 Fed meeting
After a worrying 0.5% jump in January, headline inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index increased by just 0.2% in February. That was right on the 0.2% mark expected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and...
China actually seems to be deleveraging
China’s financial system certainly isn’t out of the woods yet, but the country has made substantial progress in moving away from a potential banking crisis, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The BIS, often called the central banks’...
Treasury market survives this week’s first test
The U.S. Treasury sold $28 billion of three-year Treasury notes and $21 billion of 10-year notes today–and the price of the 10-year note actually climbed, taking the yield down to 2.87%, three basis points lower than Friday’s 2.90% yield. This was a good...
Rethinking 2018: Growth looks marginally slower, risk higher even in first half
It’s only March but I’m rethinking my take on 2018. When the calendar pages turned over into 2018, my take on the year was that for stocks the first half would be much like 2017: Despite rising interest rates from the Federal Reserve, there was enough...
It’s official: President Trump authorizes tariffs on imported steel and aluminum; exempts Canada and Mexico
At a ceremony in the White House President Donald Trump signed an executive order authorizing a 25% tariff on imported steel and 10% on imported aluminum. The tariffs will go into effect in 15 days. Mexico and Canada are exempt from the tariffs for an indefinite time....
Fed Beige Book inflation take raises odds for March 21 interest rate increase
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book economic report, based on anecdotal information collected by the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, shows that a tight U.S. labor market is generating wage increases in most of the country and is leading to “moderate...
Holding Incyte in my Jubak Picks portfolio for mid-year catalysts
When I sold Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) out of my Jubak Picks portfolio on March 5, one reason I gave was that the catalysts for this biotech were too far out–results from critical drug trials weren’t likely to be reported for two years. The reason to...
Some old market leaders try to reassert themselves
The market as a whole hasn’t gone much of anywhere this morning. As of 11:30 a.m. New York time the Standard & Poor’s 500 was ahead 0.25%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 0.54%; and the NASDAQ Composite was down 0.15%. But that apparent...
Selling Acadia Pharmaceuticals out of my Jubak Picks portfolio
Today I’m selling Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) out of my Jubak Picks portfolio. I have a 13.52% loss on this position since I added the shares to the portfolio on November 15, 2016. There are short- and long-range reasons to sell. From a short-range perspective...
China plans for slightly slower growth in 2018
Meeting in Beijing today, the National People’s Congress approved plans laid out by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang to set the target for economic growth at 6.5% for the next year and to reduce the government deficit to 2.6% of GDP from the 3% of the...
President Trump doubles down on tariffs and trade war
Anybody who hoped that President Donald Trump would reconsider overnight his decision to impose a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum and risk setting off a global trade war was disappointed this morning when he doubled down in a tweet....
Nektar blows away revenue projections, gives very positive guidance on drug pipeline
Shares of Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) finished up 21.67% today to $102.87 after the biotech company announced after the close yesterday a smaller than expected fourth quarter 2017 loss of 21 cents a share (versus the Wall Street consensus projection of a 36 cents a...
Trump’s announcement of steel and aluminum tariffs sink U.S. stocks
This morning President Donald Trump announced that the United States will impose a 25% tariff on imported steel and a 10% tariff on imported aluminum “for a long period of time.” The President said he will sign a formal order next week. The timing...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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