Raising target price on Microsoft in Jubak Picks Portfolio after earnings
Going into yesterday’s earnings report from Microsoft, I felt torn. On the one hand, the stock had hit an all time record high on the strong guidance for the June quarter back in April. How much higher could the stock go? Would guidance for the September quarter...
Is a slow-motion credit crunch already here?
Thanks, folks. For weeks now I’ve been writing (especially in a series of special reports on my subscription site JubakAM.com) about an impending credit crunch that would produce a reset (a polite term for a big whoosh down the toilet) in global asset prices....The oil price that didn’t bark in the night
Sometimes it’s how the market doesn’t react that’s important. Today the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a surprising build in U.S. crude oil inventories of 5.8 million barrels for the week ended on July 13. This comes after a big...
Next earnings season test after Netflix? Microsoft
The Netflix (NFLX) drop yesterday (14.27%) and today (5.24%, which actually showed a recovery from the after-hours tumble) on the company’s disappointing guidance for the third quarter says that we’re still on track for a test of the earnings rally. But...
Fed chief’s Senate talk calms markets after Netflix guidance disappointment
In his semiannual Senate testimony on the state of the U.S. economy this morning Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell gave the U.S. economy a strong thumbs up–at least if the tariff war doesn’t hit the global economy too badly. (Powell completed his...
Testing the rally: Netflix beats on earnings but lowers guidance
This is exactly the scenario I’ve been worried about. Now let’s see how the market reacts tomorrow. Today, after the market close, Netflix (NFLX) reported second quarter earnings of 85 cents a share that beat the consensus analyst projection of $79 cents....
Bank of America beats on earnings, confirms 25% dividend hike
Shares of Bank of America (BAC) closed 4.27% higher today after the company announced second quarter earnings of 63 cents a share, 6 cents a share above the Wall Street consensus. Revenue fell 0.9% year over year but at $22.6 billion it still exceeded the $22.5...
China slows a “wee bit”–but that’s too much for an already nervous market
Growth in China’s economy has slipped to the lowest rate since 2016. Which isn’t huge negative news except that Chinese financial markets are already nervous enough to have pushed Chinese stocks into a bear market. In the second quarter of 2018 annual...
Reaction to JPM Chase earnings today small red flag for continued earnings season rally
The reaction to Wells Fargo (WFC) earnings released before the open this morning was perfectly fitting. The bank lagged its peers again on key metrics (revenue fell 3.1% year over year and earnings per share were down 9% as average loans fell 1%) and the stock was...
Trade war? What trade war? We’re back to the earnings rally today
U.S. stocks closed up on the fifth day out of the last six on a belief that Chinese rhetoric signaled a withdrawal from an immediate confrontation with the United States over trade. The shift wasn’t huge. Chinese officials continued to stress that the government...
Selling Cheniere Energy out of my Jubak Picks portfolio on China trade war
Back when President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping were best buds they announced a deal in principle that would expand Chinese purchases of liquified natural gas from the United States in general and Cheniere Energy (LNG) in particular. I think we can assume...
Trump administration tees up next tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods
The Trump administration has released a new list of $200 billion in Chinese goods that would be subject to higher tariffs as promised in retaliation for Chinese tariffs in retaliation for earlier U.S. tariffs. The new tariffs won’t go into effect until the end...
U.S. threatens huge escalation in tariff war with China
At 12:01 a.m. last night higher U.S. tariffs went into effect on $34 billion in Chinese goods. China immediately retaliated with higher tariffs on U.S. exports such as autos and soybeans. The Trump administration already has tariffs on another $16 billion in Chinese...
The good news in the bad news of today’s jobs numbers
You ‘ve got to remember that at this point in the Federal Reserve cycle good is bad and bad is good. So, by itself the good news in the June jobs report this morning would be counted as bad news. The economy added 213,000 jobs in June, well above the 195,000...
Anticipation: The next stage of the U.S.-China trade war starts at 12:01 a.m. tonight
he office of the U.S. Trade Representative has confirmed that tariffs on $34 billion in Chinese goods will go into effect at 12:01 a.m. Washington time tonight. This is on top of tariffs on steel, aluminum, washing machines, and solar panels that President Donald...
Have a happy (and safe) Fourth!!
And if you’re not following the news closely today, here’s the headline from the Coney Island hotdog eating contest: Joey “Jaws” Chestnut defends title, breaks own record, by “eating” 74 hotdogs. This is the 215-pound...
I’m adding Citigroup to my Dividend Portfolio
Citigroup (C) is among the big banks that passed the most recent stress test from the Federal Reserve. That means the bank can go ahead with its plans to raise its quarterly dividend to 45 cents from 32 cents and to buyback $17.6 billion in shares. The plan would take...
Second quarter GDP forecasts start to come back to earth
Not so long ago major economic forecasts such as the GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank were calling for second quarter U.S. GDP to grow at an annual rate of better than 4%. That was extraordinarily strong growth and it fit in with forecasts from...
Government via Twitter: What did the Saudi’s actually say about increasing oil production?
On Saturday President Donald Trump wrote on Twitter that in a phone call with King Salman Saudi Arabia had agreed to increase oil production “maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels” in response to turmoil in Iran and Venezuela. The Saudi government has acknowledged that the...
Tomorrow I’m selling McDonald’s out of my Dividend Portfolio
In my post of June 28 “My baseline stock market scenario for the next 30 days” I pointed to an earnings/post earnings report pattern that I thought posed significant danger to stocks. Analysts, I noted, were projecting knock out earnings growth for the...
My baseline U.S. stock market scenario for the next 30 days
So much negative uncertainty from big possible events. Such strong short term earnings fundamentals. How will these all balance out? Before I get to my take on the answer to that question let’s take a brief stop to look at what a baseline scenario is and why...
Aggressive November 4 U.S. deadline on ending Iran oil exports threatens more oil market turmoil
Want to know how high oil can go? So do the oil markets, frankly. West Texas Intermediate closed today at $72.32 a barrel, up another 2.54%. The U.S. crude benchmark stood at $64.19 on June 15. That’s a gain of 12.7%. Lurking in the wings is a demand by the...
Oil soars on U.S. inventory report, supply fears
As of noon New York time today, U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate is up 3.30%. International benchmark Brent is ahead 2.41%. The climb follows on data from the Energy Information Administration showing a huge draw of 9.9 millions barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles...
One of my core beliefs after running the Jubak Picks portfolio for more than 20 years now is that when the reason I picked a stock to buy evaporates, then it’s time to sell. So today (June 21) I’m selling Starbucks (SBUX) out of my Jubak Picks portfolio....
Selling MGM Resorts on escalating China trade war fears
I still believe in all the catalysts that I touted for MGM Resorts International (MGM) for late this year–yes, the company’s new Macao casino will give the company more exposure to that market, yes, a wave of states legalizing sports gambling plays to...
Today the markets decide that this “trade stuff” isn’t just a negotiating ploy
Last week the market consensus was that all the moves to raise U.S. tariffs on goods from China, the European Union, Canada, and everyone else in the world–were just parts of a negotiating strategy by President Donald Trump. Certainly we weren’t on the...
So much for that U.S-China trade truce
The Trump administration has announced higher tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese export and promised additional restrictions on Chinese investments. China immediately promised to impose tariffs with “equal scale, equal intensity” on U.S. exports. The...
New catalysts lining up for MGM Resorts–I’ll hold in my Jubak Picks Portfolio for the moment of recognition
Shares of MGM Resorts International (MGM) peaked for 2018 (so far) at $38.03 on January 29, 2018 and since then the trend has been brutally downward. The stock’s 50-day moving average broke below its 200-day moving average (a moment that technical analysts...
Adding Microsoft to my Jubak Picks portfolio–hoping for a July “miss” like that in April
As I wrote in Part 3 of my Special Report “Investing in a Late Cycle Market,” (available to subscribers to my paid JubakAM.com site), I’m adding Microsoft to my Jubak Picks portfolio. The April third quarter earnings “miss” sets Microsoft...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
Every post from Jubak Picks straight to your mailbox. And they're free!