Moderna shares jump today on positive results in skin cancer vaccine trials
Shares of Moderna (MRNA) were up 13.67% to $89.15 as of noon New York time today, December 14. They closed ahead 9.25% at $85.87. A vaccine developed by Merck and Moderna helped prevent the recurrence of severe skin cancer for three years, according to new results...
Core CPI inflation numbers disappoint for November, illustrate why the Fed won’t rush to cut rates
If you follow the headline numbers (what’s known as All Urban Consumers) for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), you’d say, “See inflation continues to fall; the Federal Reserve will cut rates quickly in 2024.” But you’d be following the...
For this week’s Fed meeting, watch the central bank’s Dot Plots and not what it says
Well now, let’s see. What could the financial markets be thinking about this week? The Yankees’trade for Juan Soto? Who will be the next Speaker of the House when Republicans force Mike Johnson out? The link between Mexican avocados and the country’s...
Moody’s cuts China bond rating on worries over debt load
Moody’s Investors Service cut its outlook for Chinese sovereign bonds to negative from stable today, December 5. The rating company kept its long-term rating on China’s government bonds at A1. You don’t have to be a forensic accountant to see what worries...
Jobs data and more data will end this week
I expect a nervous market as investors and traders look ahead to Thursday’s weekly report on initial claims for unemployment and Friday’s report on the jobs numbers for November. The curent rally is assumes a Goldilocks economy–not so weak that...
Some in the bond market are saying the bond rally has been too far, too fast
I’m hearing some chatter that says bond traders and analysts are stepping aside from the bond rally. Or are planning to do so. Their argument is that the move has been too far, too fast. Specifically, I’ve heard talk of selling if the yield on the 10-year...
Powell tries to temper Wall Street belief in rapid interest rate cuts but no one is listening
It wasn’t the most forceful pushback it’s true, but the financial markets paid attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s attempt to say interest rate cuts aren’t just around the corner for about two minutes. And then the rally based on...
Gold hits record high–Don’t chase gold; buy gold stocks
Gold (for February 2024 delivery) was trading at $2087 an ounce on New York Comex today, December 1. That easily beats the old record high of $2051.50 an ounce back in August 2020. The shiny metal is up 12% from $1830 an ounce in early October. The SPDR Gold Shares...
China’s limits on graphite exports, a key ingredient in electric car batteries, go into effect this week
Meetings between presidents come and go, but China’s efforts to capture the high ground in technologies for the future economy–and to defend that ground once captured–just go on. On December 1 China will begin requiring export permits for some...Economists project that the rate at which inflation is falling will slow–does the Fed care?
The pace of improvement in the U.S. inflation rate is set to slow in the coming year. According to the economists surveyed by Bloomberg in its latest monthly outing, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index-—-the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure...
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving filled with friends and family
No turkeys here in Italy so we’re making a pork roast with rosemary. At a farmhouse in Umbria with friends for the holidays. Someone saw a wild boar today on her walk in the vineyards. Back in Venice on Saturday. Back posting tomorrow. I wish everyone a great...
Nothing new in Fed’s November 1 minutes: Careful on rates
Federal Reserve officials at their November 1 meeting were agreed on a strategy to “proceed carefully” on future interest-rate moves and base any further tightening on progress toward their inflation goal. “All participants agreed that the committee was in a position...
Rally or bear trap: Concentration in megacap tech stocks reaches a record high
I’m trying to decide if we’re watching a legitimate rally or a classic bear trap. If this rally is real, and likely to run for a while, investors should be putting cash to work even at market highs. If it’s a bear trap–you know one of those...
Nvidia beats on earnings and revenue but falls short of highest expectations
Nvidia (NVDA) beat Wall Street expectations again. After the market close today, November 21, the company reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.02 on revenue of $18.12 billion for its fiscal third quarter. Analysts had projected adjusted earnings per share of...
If this is such a great economy, why did Cisco and Palo Alto just cut cut guidance for 2024?
More real world dissent to Wall Street’s view that everything looks great for 2024. On Thursday Cisco Systems (CSCO) shares closed down 9.83% after the networking giant offered up significantly weaker-than-expected guidance for 2024. Wall Street analysts called...
Bond market pauses: Are bond prices ahead of themselves? Have yields dropped too far?
Today stocks and bonds both paused to think about yesterday’s huge rally. In my opinion, stock investors and traders paused to think about whether they should bid stocks higher. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 0.16% and the Dow Jones Industrial...
Will Tuesday’s rally continue? 3 things I’m watching
One day fluke? The next step in an end of year Santa Claus rally? Huge bear market trap? The beginning of the next big Bull market? Tough questions to answer but important for figuring out an investment strategy for NOW. So here are three things that I’ll be...
Want to know where this rally is headed? Watch Tuesday’s CPI inflation report
I expect Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index report for October to be critical in determining whether the Christmas rally narrative can be sustained. Right now, short-term, stocks look like they want to move higher. That trend is built on a narrative that says, the...
The big pay off for Eli Lilly is still ahead
Back on August 18, I posted a buy for Eli Lilly (LLY). I said the stock was over-valued but would likely get more so. At the time Lilly shares were 46% over-valued according to Morningstar. Yesterday November 8, the stock was 68% over-valued. And even after a plunge...
What a surprise! Consumers are in debt trouble
Credit card debt surged again during the third quarter and so did the number of people missing payments, according to data released today, November 7, by the Federal reserve Bank of New York. Credit card balances rose by $48 billion in the third quarter to a record...
Are financial markets getting interest rates wrong again?
The financial markets continue to swing from extreme to extreme in sentiment. The markets were wrong at the beginning of last week. It’s likely the markets are wrong again. Last week before a weaker jobs number for October and a slightly smaller than expected...
The small-cap Russell 2000 is up 8.5% in a week–time to go short
On Monday, I will add to my short position in the small-cap Russell 2000 by buying more of the ProShares Short Russell 2000 ETF (RWM) for my Jubak Picks Portfolio. This buy will give me two positions in the ProShares Short Russell ETF. The first position, added to the...
All it took was a weak jobs report and stocks are off to the races
The U.S. economy added “only” 150,000 jobs in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced this morning, November 3. Economists had projected that the economy would add 180,000 jobs for the month. The unemployment rate climbed slightly to 3.9% from...
Apple revenue falls again, warns holiday quarter will be flat
So let’s see how the market takes this tomorrow. Today stocks staged an impressive upside more. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 1.89% and the NASDAQ Composite ended the day 1.78% higher. The small cap Russell 2000 was the day’s best...
The biggest good news from Barrick Gold’s earnings aren’t the earnings
Yesterday, Thursday, November 2, Barrick Gold (GOLD) reported earnings of 24 cents a share for the company’s this quarter. That was ahead of the 21 cents a share consensus estimate among Wall Street analysts. In the third quarter of quarter of 2022, the company...
Federal Reserve holds rates steady as expected, so why did 10-year yields fall 18 basis points?
Certainly, it wasn’t any surprise that at today’s meeting the Federal Reserve decided to keep its policy rate steady at 5.25% to 5.50%. Going into the meeting the CME FedWatch tool put the odds of the Fed standing pat on rates at close to 100%. So why then...
Sell DE, CAT and BHP tomorrow
Yesterday for subscribers to my JubakAM.com site I posted Step #8 in my Special Report: 8 Steps to Protect Your Portfolio from the Global Debt Bomb. I recommended selling Deere (DE), Caterpillar (CAT), and BHP Group (BHP) out of portfolios ahead of rising yields in...
The “other” big interest rate news tomorrow: How big will the Treasury’s bond auctions be?
Yeah, yeah, yeah. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday–the market currently expects no change to policy interest rates. But I’d argue that the bigger news on internet rates for the day will come when the Treasury...
Sell GM and Ford sometime between now and December 13
On my subscription site JubakAM.com I added Step #7 to my Special Report: 8 Steps to Protect Your Portfolio from the Global Debt Bomb today. And my advice was to sell Ford and General Motors sometime between now and before the December 13 meeting of the Federal...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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