Markets blow a raspberry to Christmas–and Mnuchin
And Merry Christmas! to you too. The stock market delivered a lump of coal on Christmas Eve. (Does this mean the financial markets are part of the dastardly war on Christmas? Say it ain’t so, Goldman Sachs!) The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed down...
Pulling the plug on any significant end of the year rally: Selling small cap Russell 2000 ETF
Going into December, I thought there was enough chance of a strong end of the year rally/ January effect rally to make taking a risk on small company stocks a reasonable call. Even though the entire market looked shaky in the longer term. (That is in 2019.) With the...
Worst of both worlds from the Federal Reserve stokes continued selling
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve delivered the worst of both world’s, as far as Wall Street is concerned. And the 25 basis point increase in benchmark interest rates doesn’t even count–since that was what the market was expecting. First, the Fed drew...
Did Monday action signal a (temporary) bottom?
Monday’s big drop in U.S. stocks was unusual in this period of frequent market routs–and unusual in an important way. Even as the market has tumbled day after day, investors haven’t seen a big 90% down day of the kind that signals a (perhaps temporary) capitulation...
Xi’s tough talk isn’t good news for investors
Hope you weren’t hoping for good news from President Xi Jinping’s speech Tuesday to an audience of party officials, military honchos, and business leaders on the 40th anniversary of Deng Xiaoping’s Reform and Opening Up campaign that unleashed China’s economy. First,...
My second global warming pick is Jubak Picks member Xylem
Xylem (XYL) One of the “ironies” (for lack of a better word) of Global Warming is that it will put lots of water where many people don’t want it, and it will leave many regions that have enough water now thirsty, and it will threaten to turn many existing supplies of...
Selling Citigroup out of my Dividend Portfolio
I’ve done a decent job in 2018 of staying away from the plunging financial sector–except in my Dividend Portfolio. There, sucked (or “suckered” if you prefer) by high dividend yields and the prospects of rising net interest margins as the Federal Reserve raised...
How will the President Trump wild card play out in the stock market this week?
Maybe that should be “wild cards.” First, there’s President Donald Trump’s threat to shut down about 25% of the government on December 22 if Congress doesn’t include $5 billion for his border wall in its bill to fund such government units...
Adding Vulcan Materials, first Global Warming pick, to 50 Stocks Portfolio
Today I made Vulcan Materials (VMC) my first pick in my Special Report: Is Your Portfolio Ready for Global Warming and I’m also adding the shares to my long-term 50 Stocks portfolio. As the most recent hurricanes have confirm, the Southeastern United States is...
News flow a net negative this morning and stocks retreat
I recently noted that I thought stocks wanted to climb, and would through the end of the year–if news let them. Well, this morning, the news has put a big downward thumb on the scale. First off, November retail sales grew 8.1% year over year, China’s...
Nobody wants to get too far ahead of the news in this stock market
After yesterday’s bounce in riskier bounce-worthy stocks, today the U.S. market is seeing a slight pull back. At 1:30 p.m. New York time the Standard & Poor’s 500 is off 0.34% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is lower by 0.05%. The NASDAQ...
Pioneer authorizes huge increase in buyback program in note of confidence on cash flow
We all know that companies can authorize stock buybacks and never carry them out, but, nonetheless the big new buyback program authorized by Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) is a significant sign that of the company’s confidence in its cash flow. (As well as an...
Tomorrow morning’s retail sales report for November: really tough comparisons
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are expecting the 8:30 a.m. New York time report on November retail sales to show month to month growth of 0.2%. That wouldn’t be quite so likely to disappoint the market except that retail sales climbed 0.8% month to month in...
U.S. stocks want to bounce, but not so sure about a rally
Bounce, yes. Rally, maybe. What the difference? Conviction and duration. The wider market isn’t sure that the bad news on the U.S. China trade war is over and doesn’t want to get blind-sided. That’s why the broad indexes such as the Standard &...
U.S. stocks roar back this afternoon–what’s that all about?
U.S. stocks after being deep in the red this morning, came roaring back this afternoon. Or at least technology shares did. The Standard and Poor’s 500, which had been as low as 2583 today, climbed back to close at 2637. The swing from high of the day to low was...
Markets worry about everything this morning–especially bank and energy stocks
I dare you to find something global financial markets aren’t worried about. And, moreover, many of the worries are re-enforcing each other today. So, for example, we’ve got U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer, saying on Sunday TV the the 90 day...
Was the Fed telling the markets something today?
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate setting body, the Open Market Committee, meets on December 19 to 1) decide on a 25 basis point boost in benchmark interest rate, and 2) to tell financial markets what to expect on interest rate increases for 2019. It’s...
For the Fed, one and done–for a while?
This morning the November jobs report came in softer than expected–and that pretty much removed the last factor pushing the Federal Reserve toward aggressively raising interest rates in 2019. For November the economy added 155,000 jobs. That is still a strong...
OPEC cuts production by more than expected–but markets are increasingly less impressed as the day advances
To the surprise of many, OPEC & Friends–what’s known as OPEC+–agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day beginning in 2019. This was a bigger cut than the 1 million barrels a day that commodity markets had expected. Oil prices and oil...
Market looks like it’s trying to force another Federal Reserve bounce
On a day like today–when U.S. stocks have resumed their downward plunge–the Standard & Poor’s 500 was off 1.91% as of 1:30 p.m. New York time and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower by 2.08%–it’s important to remember that the...
OPEC & Friends takes another step toward cutting production
Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of what is known as OPEC+ recommended a cut in oil production today. The group’s meeting ended without an agreement on the size of the proposed cut. But Russia did agree to participate in the production curbs for six months...
China confirms some of Trump-Xi deal; global markets steady
It had seemed unlikely. China couldn’t officially confirm the details in the trade and tariffs deal struck between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Chinese officials said, until President Xi and the Chinese delegation returned from...
It’s important to remember on this down, down, down day that an earnings growth slump in 2019 and a 2019 recession aren’t the same thing
It’s hard to take a step back on a day when the Dow Jones Industrial average closed down more than 700 points (and 3.10%), but that’s exactly what I’m going to suggest. The huge sell off was driven by three major factors in my opinion. First, the...
Oil gains on Trump-Xi “success, Russia-Saudi “deal,” and actual production cuts from Alberta
As of 2:30 p.m. New York time U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate was up 3.04% to $52.48 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude gained 2.84% to break back above $60 a barrel at $61.15. Part of the reason for the gain is a general sigh of relief that the...
Incyte knocking on the door of a new upward trend after today’s 6% pop
Reports of results from the December 1-4 meeting of the American Society of Hematology continue to move biotech stocks. Today it was Incyte’s (INCY) turn. The company announced positive results for a Phase 2 trial evaluating Incyte’s Jakafi in combination...
On eve of Trump-Xi talks China’s economy continues to slump, overnight data say
China’s purchasing managers index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector continued to slump in November, overnight data showed. The index dropped to 50, the level that marks the divide between expansion (above 50) and contraction (below 50.) The new export orders...
OPEC advisory group recommends cut of 1.3 million barrels a day to December 6 oil cartel summit
It’s only an advisory group with no decision-making power, but the recommendation from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Economic Commission Board is the first step in changing production policy at OPEC & Friends. Today the group told OPEC...
China’s banking system springing leaks all over
Take your pick. Either story shows the deep stress in China’s banking system at a time when China’s economy is already slowing. Story 1: After trying to regulate the Peer to Peer lending industry, Beijing has decided to shut down most of the $176 billion...
Jubak Picks member Salesforce beats on earnings, raises guidance for 2019 and 2020
Salesforce (CRM) started today to the upside based on last night’s earnings beat of 11 cents a share. Salesforce shares were up 4.57% as of noon New York time today. And then came the market-wide bounce after Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech suggesting...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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