December 5, 2018 @ 6:31 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
It had seemed unlikely. China couldn’t officially confirm the details in the trade and tariffs deal struck between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Chinese officials said, until President Xi and the Chinese delegation returned from...
December 4, 2018 @ 7:45 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
It’s hard to take a step back on a day when the Dow Jones Industrial average closed down more than 700 points (and 3.10%), but that’s exactly what I’m going to suggest. The huge sell off was driven by three major factors in my opinion. First, the...
December 3, 2018 @ 7:29 pm | Breaking News, EQNR, FANG, Jubak Picks Portfolio, PXD, Update, You May Have Missed |
As of 2:30 p.m. New York time U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate was up 3.04% to $52.48 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude gained 2.84% to break back above $60 a barrel at $61.15. Part of the reason for the gain is a general sigh of relief that the...
December 3, 2018 @ 7:19 pm | Breaking News, INCY, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Update |
Reports of results from the December 1-4 meeting of the American Society of Hematology continue to move biotech stocks. Today it was Incyte’s (INCY) turn. The company announced positive results for a Phase 2 trial evaluating Incyte’s Jakafi in combination...
November 30, 2018 @ 6:32 pm | Breaking News, Volatility |
China’s purchasing managers index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector continued to slump in November, overnight data showed. The index dropped to 50, the level that marks the divide between expansion (above 50) and contraction (below 50.) The new export orders...
November 30, 2018 @ 6:19 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
It’s only an advisory group with no decision-making power, but the recommendation from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Economic Commission Board is the first step in changing production policy at OPEC & Friends. Today the group told OPEC...
November 30, 2018 @ 6:14 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Take your pick. Either story shows the deep stress in China’s banking system at a time when China’s economy is already slowing. Story 1: After trying to regulate the Peer to Peer lending industry, Beijing has decided to shut down most of the $176 billion...
November 28, 2018 @ 7:00 pm | Breaking News, CRM, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Update, Volatility |
Salesforce (CRM) started today to the upside based on last night’s earnings beat of 11 cents a share. Salesforce shares were up 4.57% as of noon New York time today. And then came the market-wide bounce after Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech suggesting...
November 28, 2018 @ 6:52 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Sometimes the market hears what it wants to hear and then storms higher (or lower) on what is little more than a hint. In the short run that doesn’t much matter since the oftentimes huge gains are real and investors can and do take them to the bank. In the...
November 27, 2018 @ 7:30 pm | Breaking News, IONS, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Update |
It’s been a wild 2018 for Jubak Picks portfolio stock Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS.) Right now, though, the shares are on an upward trend. That’s likely to continue with the company looking at a strong research presentation at the December 1-4 meeting of...
November 26, 2018 @ 8:07 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
On December 13 the European Central Bank will decide whether to cap its $2.9 trillion program of bond buying as planned. The bank had decided that Europe’s economy was strong enough for the central bank to wind down its purchases of bonds that have kept interest...
November 26, 2018 @ 7:54 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Nothing will be as important this week to the financial markets as the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during the November 30-December 1 summit of the Group of 20 in Buenos Aires. Ahead of the weekend meeting days when the...
November 21, 2018 @ 12:25 pm | Breaking News |
Do all your favorite things with your family–bicker over politics, watch too much sports, forget the name of your youngest cousin–and give thanks for all we have. I’ll be back posting on Monday.
November 20, 2018 @ 7:57 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
If you own any of the big technology stocks that led the U.S. higher in the first eight months of 2018, the losses over the last six weeks sure make this feel like a bear market. Remember that the classical definition of a bear market is a drop from the high of 20% or...
November 20, 2018 @ 7:46 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The hope among some in the Wall Street crowd was that today’s earnings reports from retailers such as Target (TGT) and Kohl’s (KSS) –and especially guidance for the Christmas shopping quarter to come–would end the plunge in the U.S. stock...
November 19, 2018 @ 7:11 pm | Breaking News, Volatility |
For this short holiday trading week, I’m expecting volatility in asset classes that range from oil to stocks to the U.S. dollar, as traders and investors try to figure out how to “price in” a metric ton of macro uncertainty scheduled for the next...
November 19, 2018 @ 6:58 pm | Breaking News, Sell, Update, Volatility |
Today Apple (AAPL) fell 3.96%. Facebook (FB) was down 5.72%. Amazon (AMZN) lost 5.09%. Netflix (NFLX) tumbled 5.45%. The big technology stocks that led the market up to historic highs are leading this fall off on a combination of general market nervousness and...
November 16, 2018 @ 4:41 pm | Breaking News |
The Fed is sounding less aggressive about raising interest rates in 2019. Today, Friday, November 16, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said that the Federal Reserve has to factor the possibility that the global economy is slowing into its decision on how...
November 15, 2018 @ 7:30 pm | Breaking News |
This is important–if very, very speculative–if you’re trying to figure out if OPEC will cut production by enough to end the oil bear market when it holds its regular meeting on December 6. Today Reuters is reporting that Saudi Arabia is extremely...
November 14, 2018 @ 7:03 pm | Breaking News |
Oil prices are up today with U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate ahead 2.07% to $56.84 a barrel as of 11:30 a.m. in New York. International benchmark Brent crude has gained 2.23% to $66.93 a barrel. Both prices remain below the psychologically important $60 a...
November 13, 2018 @ 7:13 pm | Breaking News |
Oil prices went into free fall today, continuing the bear market in the commodity. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 7.73% on the day to $55.30 a barrel. International benchmark Brent dropped 7.05% to $65.18 a barrel. Yesterday oil had rallied on news out of...
November 12, 2018 @ 5:49 pm | BABA, Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio |
The 10th annual Singles’ Day sales frenzy on November 11 resulted in a new record at China’s Alibaba (BABA) for one-day sales of $213.5 billion yuan ($30.7 billion.) This year merchandise sales for the world’s largest off-line and on-line shopping...
November 9, 2018 @ 6:35 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
I’ve written more than once about my conviction–and consequent worry–that we’re headed for a global credit crunch sometime in the next three to four years. I’m looking for the kind of Minsky Moment that sees financial markets go into...
November 9, 2018 @ 6:25 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The 3.1% year over year growth in average hourly wages reported for October is, by itself, enough to convince the Federal Reserve that an increase in inflation, long awaited with concern, is visible on the horizon. Today’s jump in the Producer Price Index (PPI)...
November 8, 2018 @ 7:31 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, PXD, Update |
On Monday, after the close of the New York market, Permian Basin oil shale power Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) reported third quarter earnings of $2.07 a share, 39 cents a share above the Wall Street consensus projection. Revenue climbed 112.2% year over year to...
November 7, 2018 @ 7:25 pm | Breaking News |
To mangle Tolstoy: “All one-party Congresses are alike; each divided Congress is divided in its own way.” Today the U.S. stock market is in love with yesterday’s election results. Those results removed uncertainty. Eliminated the chance–slight though it...
November 6, 2018 @ 5:53 pm | Breaking News |
Remember last week when markets got all optimistic at the possibility that U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping would be able to hammer out an end to the U.S.-China trade deal when they meet at the Group of 20 meeting in Buenos Aires on...
November 6, 2018 @ 5:40 pm | Breaking News, Buy, IWM, Jubak Picks Portfolio |
In my Special Report “How to Protect Our Portfolio Without Selling Your Portfolio” (available to subscribers to my JubakAM.com site) I made the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) my third Portfolio Protection Pick. Today I’m adding it to my Jubak Picks...
November 5, 2018 @ 7:54 pm | AAPL, Breaking News, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, Update, Volatility |
Let’s see. You’re a company running into serious global headwinds in a maturing (or mature market) that are raising huge doubts about your ability to increase unit sales quarter to quarter for your core product. You: a) Grimly admit that unit sales are...
November 2, 2018 @ 7:53 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Part–but certainly only part–of the weakness in U.S. stock prices in October came from the blackout period on companies buying back their own shares. Many companies have self-declared buyback blackout periods running from a couple of weeks before the...