President Trump to sign spending bill to avoid shutdown but will declare national emergency to secure funding for The Wall
At 3:26 p.m. Washington time Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell interrupted a speech by Iowa Senate Chuck Grassley on biofuels to announce that President Donald Trump would sign the deal worked out by the House and Senate to fund nine departments of the federal...
Core CPI inflation up 2.2% year over year
For January, headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was unchanged, thanks to falling oil prices-the energy component of the index was down 3.1% for the month. The Core CPI, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices and is closer to the PCE inflation...
EuroZone economy is leading global slowdown
The 19-country EuroZone economy could expand by just 1% in 2019 with industrial production falling at the fastest rate since the global financial crisis. This time it’s the core economies of Germany and France, which together make up about half of the EuroZone...
Ya betta listen when Cummins talks business cycle
Some companies you listen to because their stocks themselves are good investments–and because of their insight into a big chunk of the economy and trends in the economy. For example, I pay attention to what Deere (DE) says in its quarterly earnings report...
Forget about 6% earnings growth for 2019–how about 1%?
Over the weekend on my subscription JubakAM.com site I wrote about the possibility of an earnings recession in 2019. And I noted that the Wall Street analyst consensus for the year was pointing toward 6% growth in earnings for the companies in the Standard &...
Earnings season draws to a close–with another (slight) warning
As of this morning, more than 75% of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index have reported fourth quarter earnings. As per usual, the bulk of companies have beaten Wall Street earnings estimates. (This is just a game that Wall Street and CEOs...
China trade talks outcome uncertain–but market reaction even more difficult to read
Today, a day when the U.S. financial markets seem to be in a mood to worry about China, is a good time to look at the likeliest outcomes of the U.S.-China trade talks and the likely market reaction to those outcomes. The clock is ticking on the Trump...
S&P 500: Testing, testing at 2742
So far this is a normal pause. Stocks frequently pause, pull back, move up again, pull back again when they confront a major resistance level. So it’s not surprising that the Standard & Poor’s 500 took a breather today after the index closed at 2731...
China when? worries financial markets
President Donald Trump has made it clear–repeatedly–that there won’t be an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade war until he has met with China’s President Xi Jinping. And that’s got the market worried. Because the Trump...
Amazon earnings results mean hotter war with Google and Facebook in digital ad space
Nothing wrong with 20% year over year revenue growth–unless, of course, you’re Amazon (AMZN). On Thursday, January 31, the company reported that revenue growth in the fourth quarter–the strongest retail quarter of the year–had at 20% come in at...
Forget recession worries–the big danger now is in the credit cycle
The Federal Reserve and the world’s other central banks face an impossible choice. On the one hand, they could have tighten the money supply by raising interest rates or other means. That would have risked sending economies near recession into...
Adding Emerson Electric to my Jubak Picks Portfolio
One of my mother’s favorite sayings was “It’s an ill wind that blows nobody any good.” (Lest anyone get the erroneous impression that my mother was an optimist, I’d note that another of her favorites was “Every silver lining has a...
Buying this yen ETF for Jubak Picks to hedge market risk–and maybe gain 5% or so
Earlier today in a post “One consequence of change in Fed policy likely to be a weaker dollar” I noted that a number of Wall Street and big international banks have forecast a drop in the dollar as a result of the Fed’s decision to back off on...
One consequence of the change in Fed policy likely to be a weaker dollar
A number of Wall Street and big international banks are forecasting a drop in the dollar as a result of the Fed’s decision to back off on raising interest rates in 2019. Morgan Stanley, for example, says that the dollar has peaked and has forecast the yen...
Half way to an earnings recession?
The latest compilation of analyst earnings projections by FactSet shows that Wall Street is expecting earnings for the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 to drop by 0.8% year over year in the first quarter of 2019. That’s down from late January...
Don’t fight the Fed…and the Bank of Japan, and the People’s Bank, and the European Central Bank
Once upon a time–as late as 2018–the consensus thinking in financial markets was that the Federal Reserve was but the first central bank to raise interest rates. Other central banks, most notably the European Central Bank, (but not the Bank of Japan, which...
Jobs report today adds to Fed puzzle
Last week the Federal Reserve signaled a huge policy change–no (or at most one) interest rate increase in 2019 and flexibility on continuing/ending the $50 billion a month program to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. Markets cheered the shift on...
Market goes all in on “No interest rate increase for 2019”
The market has priced in just about a zero percent change of an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve in 2019. In fact, looking out through all of 2019 and into 2020, the financial markets believe there’s more chance of an interest rate cut than of a...
So how long before markets react to the dark side of today’s Fed decision?
Today the financial markets are in love with the idea that the Federal Reserve will raise rates no more than once in 2019–and more likely zero. And that the central bank will re-examine its policy of letting its balance sheet run off to the tune of $50 billion a...
The Fed capitulated today, the market believes: Did the Fed intend to send that message?
It’s hard for me to see the Federal Reserve’s statement today after the meeting of the Open Market Committee, and then Fed chair Jerome Powell’s presentation at the most-meeting press conference, as anything other than capitulation to the financial...
Stock market heard what it wanted to hear from the Fed
Today the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee said it will The Federal Reserve said it will be “patient” on any future interest-rate increases. moves. And it will be flexible and “prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet...
Adding Intuitive Surgical to my long-term 50 Best Portfolio
Today, January 30, I added Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), one of my 10 Best Buys for After the Bear and an artificial intelligence pick from my Next 3 Big Things Special Report (both running on my subscription JubakAM.com site), to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. The...
Indictment of China’s Huawei Technologies comes just days before next round in U.S.-China trade talks
The U.S. Department of Justice filed criminal charges Monday against Huawei Technologies, China’s biggest technology company. The charges include an allegation that the company stole trade secrets from TMobile and that Huawei committed bank fraud by violating...
Apple meeting lowered earnings, revenue expectations–and then guides lower for next quarter
Goes to show you that if you lower expectations enough, you can beat them when you actually report earnings. Even if the earnings report itself is bad news. After the close of the New York market today, Apple (AAPL) reported December quarter earnings of $4.18 a share...
Apple moves big in battery wars
Apple (AAPL) has hired Samsung’s head of global battery development, Soonho Ahn. At Samsung SDI, the battery-producing affiliate of Samsung Electronics, Ahn led development of lithium battery packs and worked on next generation battery technology. Two ways that...
Even as deal is struck to end shutdown, gold soars
Gold hit a seven month high on Friday, gaining more than 1%. Spot gold briefly broke above $1300 an ounce. Gold futures climbed 1.5% to $1,298.30 an ounce. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) climbed 1.46% to $122.86 on volume 10% above the daily average. The 52-week high...
Show me” oil market still getting no evidence of rebalance of supply/demand
Yesterday the American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise increase in U.S. crude oil inventories with a build of 6.55 million barrels for the week ending January 18. Oil analysts had expected a small draw down in crude oil inventories of 42,000 barrels. Today the...
Great day for chip stocks–and then Intel misses
Today’s regular session was great for chip stocks. The Vance Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) was up nearly 6% on the day powered by earnings beats for the quarter from Texas Instruments (TXN) up 6.5%; Xilinx (XLNX) up 17.5%; and Lam Research (LRCX) up 14.8%. And...
“Lower guidance” a theme for tech earnings this afternoon
Most of the major U.S. stock indexes clawed their way back into the green after a mid-day journey into the red. The Standard & Poor’s 500, for example, closed the day up 0.22% (at 2638) from the Tuesday close. But that was still below the 2641 the index...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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