Shockingly low February jobs report this morning–but what’s the trend?
The U.S. economy added only 20,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected 173,000 jobs for the month. In January the economy added 304,000 jobs. The huge swing left economists and Wall Street...
Just a reminder of how much of a speculative casino China can be
Overnight the Shanghai stock market, as measured by the Shanghai Composite Index, fell 4.4%. (Which took down other Asian markets. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 2.33%.) That’s a substantial drop, no? Causes? First, a huge drop in China’s...
Valero is a best of class refiner but it’s just not a good time to be a refiner so I’m selling the shares out of Jubak Picks
Valero Energy is the largest independent largest independent refiner in the United States. And it’s also one of the best refiners in the world, period. But this just isn’t a good time to be a refiner and the oil market has moved in ways that negate many of...
I said I’d sell CTRP on first sign that upward momentum had broken–well, I’m selling today
Yesterday I posted that I would sell Ctrip International.com out of my Jubak Picks portfolio at the first sign that the stock’s upward momentum had broken. Well, the New York traded ADS for Ctrip closed down 5.42% today. I think that counts as a break and...
U.S. trade deficit soars: I think that makes a U.S.-China trade deal more likely
In December the U.S. trade deficit widened to $59.8 billion from a revised $50.3 billion in November. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected a December deficit of $57.8 billion. The December deficit is the widest monthly deficit since October 2008 during...
After huge bounce on earnings, when is it time to sell China’s CTRP.com?
Way, way back on March 1 I wondered when it would be time to trim some China positions. Then the Shanghai market as a whole was up more than 14% in the last month. Sure, a potential U.S.-China trade deal offered the chance of a rally on the news, but Wall Street was...
China tweaks growth target lower to 6%-6.5% from last year’s 6.6%
Against the setting of the National People’s Congress, which opened today, China’s leaders announced that the growth target for the economy in 2019 would be 6%-6.5%, down slightly from the 2018 target of 6.6%. That dip is significant since the Chinese...
More cash flow ahead for 50 Stocks pick Cheniere Energy
At the moment everything is running Cheniere Energy’s (LNG) way.  And while natural gas remains a cyclical sector and subject to the ebbs and flows of global growth, catalysts are very strong for this member of  50 Stocks Portfolio. Catalysts? Let me count them...
Vestas is gaining market share in wind while GE struggles–adding it to my Jubak Picks Portfolio)
The global wind power market is highly concentrated with just four companies accounting for 57% of deployed wind turbines: Vestas (VWDRY), Goldwind of China, General Electric (GE), and Siemens Gamesa (SIEGY). In 2018 developers commissioned 45 gigawatts of onshore...
Stocks rethink China bounce
Stocks started off the day rallying on speculation that a U.S.-China trade deal was near conclusion. Market consensus was that the deal would be signed by President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping by the end of March. The United States would lift tariffs on...
Salesforce beats on earnings for this quarter but lowers guidance for year ahead
The entire cloud, cyber security, and software as a service sector was down ahead of the after-hours earnings report from Salesforce (CRM) today. The worry wasn’t so much that the company would miss on fourth quarter earnings, but that this earnings growth...
Mostly good news on the U.S. economy even in ISM manufacturing slip today
The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing fell to 54.2 in February from 56.6 in January. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for 56 on the index. (On this index anything above 50 signals expansion in the sector; below...
I’m thinking of selling some of my China positions. But when?
As of the close on March 1, the Shanghai Composite was up 14.35% for the last month. That’s super for an economy that’s swimming in bad debt and facing a slowing global economy and lagging export demand.I think it’s fair to say that the rally in...
Today’s economic numbers from U.S. (good) and China (bad)
The first (advanced) estimate of U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter showed the U.S. economy growing at a 2.6% annual rate. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast 2.3% growth. For all of 2018 the economy grew at a real rate (that is after inflation) of 2.9% in...
So what’s it gonna be in U.S.-China trade talks? Historic agreement? Middling deal? Failure?
The Trump administration isn’t making it any easier to handicap the results of the U.S.-China trade talks. Yesterday U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer tried to walk back expectations for the talks. There’s not even an agreement on a Memorandum of...
Adding Wal-Mart to my Jubak Picks Portfolio
Today February 27 I’m adding Wal-Mart (WMT) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio and making it the sixth pick in my Special Report: 10 stocks for an earnings recession on my JubakAM.com subscription site. Only 25% of Wal-Mart’s revenue currently come from outside...
Government action on drug prices seems far, far away
The format was familiar: Seven CEOs sit in front of a Senate Committee probing their industry’s business practices. But whereas a Congressional hearing a decade ago marked a key moment in what was a costly public reckoning for the tobacco industry, today’s...
Appeals court rules AT&T acquisition of TimeWarner can go ahead–why isn’t the stock up more today?
The U.S. Appeals Court in Washington ruled today that AT&T’s (T) $85 billion takeover of Time Warner (now known as WarnerMedia) could go ahead. The court said in a 35-page opinion that the Justice Department had failed to establish that a lower-court judge...Adding 50 Stocks pick VMC to Jubak Picks Portfolio as well
If politicians are to be believed Vulcan Materials (VMC) would be my perfect earnings recession stock. Revenue and earnings look on a steady uphill trend in 209, after carving out that track in 2018. The company’s business is almost totally domestic. And...
Raising target price on Danaher in Jubak’s Picks after GE deal
I have had some doubts about whether Danaher (DHR) had enough of a catalyst to carry it upward during the slowdown in earnings predicted for at least the first three quarters of 2019? Yes, the company was selling off its dental unit, which would leave the company much...
It’s official: White House extends March 1 deadline in U.S.-China trade talks
Citing substantial progress, President Donald Trump has extended the March 1 deadline for reaching agreement on a U.S.-China trade agreement and heading off a jump to 25% in U.S. tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese exports. “The U.S. has made substantial progress in...
Wheaton Precious Metals discloses better than expected 2018 and 2019 production guidance ahead of March 20 earnings
After the close on February 21, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) told investors and traders that 2018 production exceeded previous guidance and that production in 2019 is forecast at 365,000 ounces of gold, 24.5 million ounces of silver, and 22,000 ounce of palladium....
ING yields 5.8% and may have turned the corner on share price in the last month
I’m sure you’re happy with the 5.80% forward dividend yield on ING (ING). That dividend is why the stock is a member of my Dividend Portfolio. I’m also sure that you’re not happy with the loss in the stock’s price–down 13.64% year...
It’s all about the MOUs: China trade talks strategy gets clearer; U.S. not so much
Judging from this morning’s news out of the U.S. China trade talks I think I can see the Chinese strategy. Step 1: Offer the United States and its President lots of money. Today the Chinese offered to buy an additional $30 billion in U.S. corn, soy beans and...
Albemarle beats on earnings, sees rising lithium deman
After the market close yesterday, Albemarle (ALB) announced fourth quarter 2018 earnings that beat Wall Street earnings estimates of $1.47 by 6 cents a share and reported revenues grew 7.4% year over year to $921.7 million, against the $894.5 million consensus. The...
The Fed’s minutes surprise, imagine that
As surprises go today’s release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its January meeting doesn’t rank up there with Agatha Christie. (Remember 10 Little Indians? Where the murderer turns out to be someone who had earlier faked his own murder?) But...
Wal-Mart’s earnings report reassures stocks
Remember last week when the Commerce Department released figures showing that U.S. retail sales fell 1.2% in December from the previous month, the most since 2009. The drop was so big that she Wall Street analysts argued that the data were in error. Today Was-Mart...
China trade talks resume–with a notable lack of momentum
The latest round of U.S.-China trade talks resumed today in Washington. The Trump administration’s March 1 deadline continues to walk nearer–although everyone on Wall Street expects that President Trump will decide good progress has been made and will...
The credit cycle sure looks like it’s headed off a cliff in U.S., China
With U.S. stock markets closed today for Presidents’ Day, credit market news has an opening to move higher on the Investor Worry Bandstand. (The kids give it an 65, as they used to say on American Bandstand. But I think its moving up fast. The American Bandstand...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
Every post from Jubak Picks straight to your mailbox. And they're free!