February 22, 2019 @ 7:51 pm | Breaking News |
After the close on February 21, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) told investors and traders that 2018 production exceeded previous guidance and that production in 2019 is forecast at 365,000 ounces of gold, 24.5 million ounces of silver, and 22,000 ounce of palladium....
February 22, 2019 @ 7:41 pm | Breaking News, Dividend Income Portfolio, ING, Update |
I’m sure you’re happy with the 5.80% forward dividend yield on ING (ING). That dividend is why the stock is a member of my Dividend Portfolio. I’m also sure that you’re not happy with the loss in the stock’s price–down 13.64% year...
February 21, 2019 @ 7:59 pm | Breaking News |
Judging from this morning’s news out of the U.S. China trade talks I think I can see the Chinese strategy. Step 1: Offer the United States and its President lots of money. Today the Chinese offered to buy an additional $30 billion in U.S. corn, soy beans and...
February 21, 2019 @ 7:52 pm | ALB, Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Update |
After the market close yesterday, Albemarle (ALB) announced fourth quarter 2018 earnings that beat Wall Street earnings estimates of $1.47 by 6 cents a share and reported revenues grew 7.4% year over year to $921.7 million, against the $894.5 million consensus. The...
February 20, 2019 @ 7:40 pm | Breaking News, Update, You May Have Missed |
As surprises go today’s release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its January meeting doesn’t rank up there with Agatha Christie. (Remember 10 Little Indians? Where the murderer turns out to be someone who had earlier faked his own murder?) But...
February 19, 2019 @ 7:20 pm | Breaking News, You May Have Missed |
Remember last week when the Commerce Department released figures showing that U.S. retail sales fell 1.2% in December from the previous month, the most since 2009. The drop was so big that she Wall Street analysts argued that the data were in error. Today Was-Mart...
February 19, 2019 @ 7:09 pm | Breaking News, Volatility |
The latest round of U.S.-China trade talks resumed today in Washington. The Trump administration’s March 1 deadline continues to walk nearer–although everyone on Wall Street expects that President Trump will decide good progress has been made and will...
February 18, 2019 @ 7:37 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
With U.S. stock markets closed today for Presidents’ Day, credit market news has an opening to move higher on the Investor Worry Bandstand. (The kids give it an 65, as they used to say on American Bandstand. But I think its moving up fast. The American Bandstand...
February 14, 2019 @ 7:53 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Overall retail sales fell 1.2% in December from November, according to the Commerce Department. That’s the worst drop in nine years. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a 0.1% gain in retail sales. Out of the gate stocks fell today on the news with...
February 14, 2019 @ 7:44 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
At 3:26 p.m. Washington time Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell interrupted a speech by Iowa Senate Chuck Grassley on biofuels to announce that President Donald Trump would sign the deal worked out by the House and Senate to fund nine departments of the federal...
February 13, 2019 @ 7:32 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
For January, headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was unchanged, thanks to falling oil prices-the energy component of the index was down 3.1% for the month. The Core CPI, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices and is closer to the PCE inflation...
February 13, 2019 @ 7:26 pm | Breaking News, Volatility |
The 19-country EuroZone economy could expand by just 1% in 2019 with industrial production falling at the fastest rate since the global financial crisis. This time it’s the core economies of Germany and France, which together make up about half of the EuroZone...
February 12, 2019 @ 6:33 pm | Breaking News, CMI, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio |
Some companies you listen to because their stocks themselves are good investments–and because of their insight into a big chunk of the economy and trends in the economy. For example, I pay attention to what Deere (DE) says in its quarterly earnings report...
February 12, 2019 @ 6:25 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Over the weekend on my subscription JubakAM.com site I wrote about the possibility of an earnings recession in 2019. And I noted that the Wall Street analyst consensus for the year was pointing toward 6% growth in earnings for the companies in the Standard &...
February 8, 2019 @ 7:31 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
As of this morning, more than 75% of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index have reported fourth quarter earnings. As per usual, the bulk of companies have beaten Wall Street earnings estimates. (This is just a game that Wall Street and CEOs...
February 8, 2019 @ 7:25 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Today, a day when the U.S. financial markets seem to be in a mood to worry about China, is a good time to look at the likeliest outcomes of the U.S.-China trade talks and the likely market reaction to those outcomes. The clock is ticking on the Trump...
February 7, 2019 @ 6:52 pm | Breaking News, Volatility |
So far this is a normal pause. Stocks frequently pause, pull back, move up again, pull back again when they confront a major resistance level. So it’s not surprising that the Standard & Poor’s 500 took a breather today after the index closed at 2731...
February 7, 2019 @ 6:43 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
President Donald Trump has made it clear–repeatedly–that there won’t be an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade war until he has met with China’s President Xi Jinping. And that’s got the market worried. Because the Trump...
February 6, 2019 @ 7:31 pm | AMZN, Breaking News, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, Volatility |
Nothing wrong with 20% year over year revenue growth–unless, of course, you’re Amazon (AMZN). On Thursday, January 31, the company reported that revenue growth in the fourth quarter–the strongest retail quarter of the year–had at 20% come in at...
February 6, 2019 @ 7:27 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The Federal Reserve and the world’s other central banks face an impossible choice. On the one hand, they could have tighten the money supply by raising interest rates or other means. That would have risked sending economies near recession into...
February 6, 2019 @ 7:14 pm | Breaking News, Buy, EMR, Jubak Picks Portfolio |
One of my mother’s favorite sayings was “It’s an ill wind that blows nobody any good.” (Lest anyone get the erroneous impression that my mother was an optimist, I’d note that another of her favorites was “Every silver lining has a...
February 5, 2019 @ 6:54 pm | Breaking News, Buy, FXY, Jubak Picks Portfolio |
Earlier today in a post “One consequence of change in Fed policy likely to be a weaker dollar” I noted that a number of Wall Street and big international banks have forecast a drop in the dollar as a result of the Fed’s decision to back off on...
February 5, 2019 @ 6:48 pm | Breaking News, Volatility |
A number of Wall Street and big international banks are forecasting a drop in the dollar as a result of the Fed’s decision to back off on raising interest rates in 2019. Morgan Stanley, for example, says that the dollar has peaked and has forecast the yen...
February 4, 2019 @ 8:08 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The latest compilation of analyst earnings projections by FactSet shows that Wall Street is expecting earnings for the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 to drop by 0.8% year over year in the first quarter of 2019. That’s down from late January...
February 1, 2019 @ 7:20 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Once upon a time–as late as 2018–the consensus thinking in financial markets was that the Federal Reserve was but the first central bank to raise interest rates. Other central banks, most notably the European Central Bank, (but not the Bank of Japan, which...
February 1, 2019 @ 7:14 pm | Breaking News, You May Have Missed |
Last week the Federal Reserve signaled a huge policy change–no (or at most one) interest rate increase in 2019 and flexibility on continuing/ending the $50 billion a month program to reduce the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. Markets cheered the shift on...
January 31, 2019 @ 7:28 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The market has priced in just about a zero percent change of an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve in 2019. In fact, looking out through all of 2019 and into 2020, the financial markets believe there’s more chance of an interest rate cut than of a...
January 30, 2019 @ 7:29 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Today the financial markets are in love with the idea that the Federal Reserve will raise rates no more than once in 2019–and more likely zero. And that the central bank will re-examine its policy of letting its balance sheet run off to the tune of $50 billion a...
January 30, 2019 @ 7:20 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
It’s hard for me to see the Federal Reserve’s statement today after the meeting of the Open Market Committee, and then Fed chair Jerome Powell’s presentation at the most-meeting press conference, as anything other than capitulation to the financial...
January 30, 2019 @ 7:08 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Today the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee said it will The Federal Reserve said it will be “patient” on any future interest-rate increases. moves. And it will be flexible and “prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet...