Numbers on factory orders and durable goods show economy remains in not-too-strong, not-too-weak Goldilocks track
Business investment remained weak according to this mornings report on durable goods. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft–a measure of business investment–remained weak in February, falling 0.1% for the month. However, shipments of...
Copper meeting bullish on projected supply deficit
The big Cesco copper conference in Santiago, Chile, has been remarkably bullish considering worries about global economic growth and the Chinese economy. That’s because there looks like a significant gap in the development of new supplies in 2019 and 2020 that...
Jobs numbers show solid but slow growth in U.S. economy
The U.S. economy added 196,000 net new jobs in March. That’s a huge increase from the 33,000 jobs added in February (revised upward from the original 20,000) and showed that the plunge in the February jobs total was an aberration. Economists surveyed by...
After the market close, Boeing CEO announces that company will cut production by ten 737 planes a month
By mid-April Boeing (BA) will cut production of its 737 planes to 42 a month from the current 52-a month pace. Before the crash of a 737 Max operated by Lion Air and one operated by Ethiopia Airlines, Boeing had planned to increase production of the 737 by 10% by...
Updating Nektar ahead of a dangerous earnings season–and looking to add to positions on any plunge
On April 4 I made Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) #8 in my list of the 10 most dangerous stocks for earnings season and #4 on my list of 5 stock to buy on any plunge in my Special Report on my JubakAm.com subscription site. Here’s what I wrote in that Special...
Added Restaurant Brands to my Jubak’s Picks and Dividend Portfolios on February 21
My apologies. Sometimes the bookkeeping in my portfolios gets a little complicated and I miss an entry. On February 20 I made Restaurant Brands International (QSR) the first pick in my Special Report on JubakAM.com “10 stocks for a market worried about an...
Recessions are built on negative shifts in sentiment so today’s news isn’t good
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to 58.9 from 60 in the week ended March 31, according to a report Thursday. That’s an eight-week low. Survey respondents’ sentiment on their personal finances posted the steepest two-week drop since 2015. All three main...
Why are shares of China Southern Airlines up 12% today?
I can’t find any news that explains why shares of China Southern Airlines (ZNH) are up 12% today. The entire Chinese market is higher on positive news on the U.S.-China trade talks, but that’s been good for gains like 0.56% on JD.Com (JD) and 0.85% on CTRP...
Unsettling market risk potential for Thursday and Friday
Today, Wednesday April 3, action in the three legs that support stocks near the highs for 2019 pointed toward significant risk for Thursday and Friday. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed the day up 0.21% at 2873. Leg 1 for the market: The financials,...
Is President Trump serious about closing the U.S. border with Mexico?
President Trump has ordered White House officials to find a way to shut the U.S. border with Mexico while exempting commercial trade from the closure. I don’t know if the President is serious–it could be a negotiating ploy designed to bring pressure on...
Selling Helmerich & Payne out of my Dividend Portfolio today
I named Helmerich & Payne (HP) #6 in my Special Report on the 10 most dangerous stocks for this earnings season on my paid JubakAM.com site. And today I’m selling the shares out of my Dividend Portfolio. After naming Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) #4 and...
Selling Diamondback Energy out of my Jubak Picks portfolio today
Diamondback Energy (FANG) made #5 in my Special Report on the 10 most dangerous stocks this earnings season that I’m posting on my paid JubakAM.com site. And I’m selling it out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio today, April 1. If you’re looking for...
The world’s bond markets stop to think about whether the rally has gone too far
It’s all my fault. I go away for two days to tour colleges with my daughter, and global bond markets soar as everybody in the world decides to seek safety simultaneously. Today’s pause has very little to do with my return to my desk. The rise in bond...
Global trade growth continues to slow in three months through January
The figures are short-term and tentative but the trend isn’t good. Global trade volume fell 1.8% in the three months through January from the previous three months, according to the World Trade Monitor from the statistics office of the Netherlands. That’s...
Today markets see recession warning in inversion of the yield curve
It was always implicit in the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday that all interest increase in 2019 were off the table and that the central bank would end its $50 billion a month balance sheet run off in September. Yeah, lower interest rates are a boost to...
Odds for a Fed interest rate cut don’t move much overnight–but that’s because a huge move has already happened
The Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would hold interest rates steady for 2019, that it would end its program to wind down the size of its balance sheet by $50 billion a month in September, and that it projects the economy will grow by just 2.1% in 2019...
Has the Fed panicked? Should investors?
Let’s remind ourselves of exactly how big a policy u-turn the Federal Reserve has steered in the last three months. In December the Fed was looking at 2 interest rate increases in 2019 and an announcement of an end to its balance sheet run off by, maybe,...
I’m selling Exxon Mobil out of my Dividend Portfolio as part of my annual portfolio rebalancing
I’m part way through the annual rebalancing of my Dividend Portfolio (with other portfolios to follow.) The initial stage of that process requires a close look at which of the stocks in the portfolio I’d like to keep for another year (based on their...
The Fed’s increased worries don’t scare Goldilocks markets
Today, March 20, the Federal Reserve left benchmark interest rates at the current 2.25% to 2.5% range at the meeting of the Open Market Committee, but cut its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2019 and voiced concern about slowing consumer and business spending....
It’s a FOMO market
“Fear of missing out” is driving this stage of the market rally. Fund managers were under allocated to equities at the start of the year and are now playing catch-up with the indexes. And since the consensus is that the Federal Reserve has the...
Adding Dollar General to my Jubak Picks Portfolio
At a moment when all of brick and mortar retailing can seem to be suffering, Dollar General (DG) has announced that it will open 975 new stores in 2019 and remodel 1,000 existing stores. For 2019 capital expenditures are projected at $775 million to $825 million or...
Is the Fed on hold of all of 2019? Market and economists differ ahead of Wednesday meeting
According to a Bloomberg survey of 32 economists, the Federal Reserve will remain on hold until September. Then it will raise interest rates one final time. And that will bring an end of the recent cycle of interest rate increases. The financial markets beg to differ....
After sliding to April, has Trump-Xi trade meeting slipped to June?
Over the weekend the South China Morning News reported that the proposed meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to sign an agreement ending the U.S.-China trade war may now be pushed back to June. That meeting had originally been scheduled for...
Adding Digital Realty Trust to my Dividend Portfolio
On March 15 I added Digital Realty Trust (DLR) to my Special Report: 10 Stocks for an Earnings Recession on my subscription JubakAM.com site. With this post, I’m also adding Digital Realty to my Dividend Portfolio. For Digital Realty Trust (DLR), a REIT that...
No March meeting on trade deal for Trump and Xi
A potential end of March meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to sign an agreement to end their trade war won’t take place this month after all. Media are reporting that multiple sources are now post to April at the earliest.If...
Durables orders good for stocks and economy
Orders for durable goods rose 0.4% in January, the Census Bureau reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected a 0.6% decrease. Ex-transportation new orders, which means excluding volatile aircraft orders (for January remember and therefore...
Selling AT&T out of Dividend Portfolio on debt load, business trends
If it was just one of these things OR the other, I wouldn’t be selling AT&T out of my Dividend Portfolio. But it’s not OR. As the company’s adds note it’s &. The company finished 2018 with $166.3 billion in long term debt. And $10.3...
Chaos in the U.K.: May loses another Brexit vote
Well, the vote was closer this time. After losing a vote on her Brexit deal by 230 votes in January, Parliament only defeated Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal by 391 to 242 votes. Which still means that the United Kingdom is set to crash out of the European...
Drop in fear in credit markets isn’t a good sign at this point in the credit cycle
The level of fear among the managers of funds that buy investment-grade and high-yield debt has sunk to its lowest level since 2014, according to the Bank of America’s March survey of fund managers. “The most notable change in our fresh survey of U.S. credit...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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