March 18, 2019 @ 7:58 pm | Breaking News |
According to a Bloomberg survey of 32 economists, the Federal Reserve will remain on hold until September. Then it will raise interest rates one final time. And that will bring an end of the recent cycle of interest rate increases. The financial markets beg to differ....
March 18, 2019 @ 7:50 pm | Breaking News |
Over the weekend the South China Morning News reported that the proposed meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to sign an agreement ending the U.S.-China trade war may now be pushed back to June. That meeting had originally been scheduled for...
March 15, 2019 @ 7:33 pm | Breaking News, Buy, Dividend Income Portfolio, DLR |
On March 15 I added Digital Realty Trust (DLR) to my Special Report: 10 Stocks for an Earnings Recession on my subscription JubakAM.com site. With this post, I’m also adding Digital Realty to my Dividend Portfolio. For Digital Realty Trust (DLR), a REIT that...
March 14, 2019 @ 7:05 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
A potential end of March meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to sign an agreement to end their trade war won’t take place this month after all. Media are reporting that multiple sources are now post to April at the earliest.If...
March 13, 2019 @ 7:57 pm | Breaking News, You May Have Missed |
Orders for durable goods rose 0.4% in January, the Census Bureau reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected a 0.6% decrease. Ex-transportation new orders, which means excluding volatile aircraft orders (for January remember and therefore...
March 13, 2019 @ 7:50 pm | Breaking News, Dividend Income Portfolio, Sell, T |
If it was just one of these things OR the other, I wouldn’t be selling AT&T out of my Dividend Portfolio. But it’s not OR. As the company’s adds note it’s &. The company finished 2018 with $166.3 billion in long term debt. And $10.3...
March 12, 2019 @ 7:40 pm | Breaking News, You May Have Missed |
Well, the vote was closer this time. After losing a vote on her Brexit deal by 230 votes in January, Parliament only defeated Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal by 391 to 242 votes. Which still means that the United Kingdom is set to crash out of the European...
March 11, 2019 @ 11:36 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The level of fear among the managers of funds that buy investment-grade and high-yield debt has sunk to its lowest level since 2014, according to the Bank of America’s March survey of fund managers. “The most notable change in our fresh survey of U.S. credit...
March 11, 2019 @ 11:28 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, NVDA |
Nvidia (NVDA) has won the bidding to acquire Mellanox Tech (MLNX). Nvidia has said that it expects the acquisition, which will be funded through cash on the Nvidia’s balance sheet, to be accretive to non-GAAP gross margin, non-GAAP EPS, and free cash flow...
March 8, 2019 @ 7:52 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The U.S. economy added only 20,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected 173,000 jobs for the month. In January the economy added 304,000 jobs. The huge swing left economists and Wall Street...
March 8, 2019 @ 7:43 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Overnight the Shanghai stock market, as measured by the Shanghai Composite Index, fell 4.4%. (Which took down other Asian markets. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 2.33%.) That’s a substantial drop, no? Causes? First, a huge drop in China’s...
March 7, 2019 @ 10:42 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Sell, VLO |
Valero Energy is the largest independent largest independent refiner in the United States. And it’s also one of the best refiners in the world, period. But this just isn’t a good time to be a refiner and the oil market has moved in ways that negate many of...
March 7, 2019 @ 10:33 pm | Breaking News, CTRP, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Sell |
Yesterday I posted that I would sell Ctrip International.com out of my Jubak Picks portfolio at the first sign that the stock’s upward momentum had broken. Well, the New York traded ADS for Ctrip closed down 5.42% today. I think that counts as a break and...
March 6, 2019 @ 7:18 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
In December the U.S. trade deficit widened to $59.8 billion from a revised $50.3 billion in November. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected a December deficit of $57.8 billion. The December deficit is the widest monthly deficit since October 2008 during...
March 6, 2019 @ 7:07 pm | Breaking News, CTRP, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Update |
Way, way back on March 1 I wondered when it would be time to trim some China positions. Then the Shanghai market as a whole was up more than 14% in the last month. Sure, a potential U.S.-China trade deal offered the chance of a rally on the news, but Wall Street was...
March 5, 2019 @ 7:55 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Against the setting of the National People’s Congress, which opened today, China’s leaders announced that the growth target for the economy in 2019 would be 6%-6.5%, down slightly from the 2018 target of 6.6%. That dip is significant since the Chinese...
March 5, 2019 @ 7:43 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, LNG, Update |
At the moment everything is running Cheniere Energy’s (LNG) way.  And while natural gas remains a cyclical sector and subject to the ebbs and flows of global growth, catalysts are very strong for this member of  50 Stocks Portfolio. Catalysts? Let me count them...
March 4, 2019 @ 11:06 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, VWDRY |
The global wind power market is highly concentrated with just four companies accounting for 57% of deployed wind turbines: Vestas (VWDRY), Goldwind of China, General Electric (GE), and Siemens Gamesa (SIEGY). In 2018 developers commissioned 45 gigawatts of onshore...
March 4, 2019 @ 10:52 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Stocks started off the day rallying on speculation that a U.S.-China trade deal was near conclusion. Market consensus was that the deal would be signed by President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping by the end of March. The United States would lift tariffs on...
March 4, 2019 @ 10:46 pm | Breaking News, CRM, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Update |
The entire cloud, cyber security, and software as a service sector was down ahead of the after-hours earnings report from Salesforce (CRM) today. The worry wasn’t so much that the company would miss on fourth quarter earnings, but that this earnings growth...
March 1, 2019 @ 7:47 pm | Breaking News, You May Have Missed |
The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing fell to 54.2 in February from 56.6 in January. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were looking for 56 on the index. (On this index anything above 50 signals expansion in the sector; below...
March 1, 2019 @ 7:36 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
As of the close on March 1, the Shanghai Composite was up 14.35% for the last month. That’s super for an economy that’s swimming in bad debt and facing a slowing global economy and lagging export demand.I think it’s fair to say that the rally in...
February 28, 2019 @ 7:39 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The first (advanced) estimate of U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter showed the U.S. economy growing at a 2.6% annual rate. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast 2.3% growth. For all of 2018 the economy grew at a real rate (that is after inflation) of 2.9% in...
February 28, 2019 @ 7:31 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The Trump administration isn’t making it any easier to handicap the results of the U.S.-China trade talks. Yesterday U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer tried to walk back expectations for the talks. There’s not even an agreement on a Memorandum of...
February 27, 2019 @ 7:49 pm | Breaking News, Buy, Jubak Picks Portfolio, WMT |
Today February 27 I’m adding Wal-Mart (WMT) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio and making it the sixth pick in my Special Report: 10 stocks for an earnings recession on my JubakAM.com subscription site. Only 25% of Wal-Mart’s revenue currently come from outside...
February 26, 2019 @ 7:57 pm | Breaking News, Dividend Income Portfolio, MRK, PFE, Update |
The format was familiar: Seven CEOs sit in front of a Senate Committee probing their industry’s business practices. But whereas a Congressional hearing a decade ago marked a key moment in what was a costly public reckoning for the tobacco industry, today’s...
February 26, 2019 @ 7:52 pm | Breaking News, Dividend Income Portfolio, T |
The U.S. Appeals Court in Washington ruled today that AT&T’s (T) $85 billion takeover of Time Warner (now known as WarnerMedia) could go ahead. The court said in a 35-page opinion that the Justice Department had failed to establish that a lower-court judge...
February 25, 2019 @ 7:56 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, VMC |
If politicians are to be believed Vulcan Materials (VMC) would be my perfect earnings recession stock. Revenue and earnings look on a steady uphill trend in 209, after carving out that track in 2018. The company’s business is almost totally domestic. And...
February 25, 2019 @ 7:43 pm | Breaking News, DHR, Jubak Picks Portfolio |
I have had some doubts about whether Danaher (DHR) had enough of a catalyst to carry it upward during the slowdown in earnings predicted for at least the first three quarters of 2019? Yes, the company was selling off its dental unit, which would leave the company much...
February 25, 2019 @ 7:33 pm | Breaking News, Update, Volatility |
Citing substantial progress, President Donald Trump has extended the March 1 deadline for reaching agreement on a U.S.-China trade agreement and heading off a jump to 25% in U.S. tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese exports. “The U.S. has made substantial progress in...