Portfolio strategies for a changing market: What went up today when everything went down
For the last few weeks I’ve been working to shift gears in my online portfolios in anticipation of a tougher market after the Federal Reserve meeting (and a likely additional interest rate cut) on September 18. I’ve added Treasury ETFs–the Vanguard...
Financial markets fear what comes next in U.S.-China trade war
It would be unwise to assume that today’s retaliation by China is the last tit for tat in the U.S.-China war. What “reasonable” fears are making rounds today? That the Chinese decision to let the yuan break the 7-yuan-to-the-dollar barrier...
China strikes back
We suspend our usual programming to cover the developing financial market and likely economic reaction to China’s decision to let the yuan tumble in retaliation to President Donald Trump’s decision last week to place a 10% tariff on an additional $300...
Decent job growth in July; bond market prices in 100% chance of another interest rate cut on September 18
The U.S. economy added 164,000 jobs in July. That’s down from the 193,000 jobs added in June (revised down from an initial 224,000) and slightly higher than the 160,000 jobs forecast by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. At 3.7% the headline unemployment rate...
Trump’s new round of China tariffs freaks out financial–especially bond–markets
So much for any hopes that the resumption of U.S-China trade talks would put an end to the tariff war in anything like the near term. The new round of talks only began on Wednesday, was adjourned after a day, and was scheduled to resume in Washington in September....
Treasury says debt sales to remain at record levels for rest of 2019
Can you connect the dots? No one in Washington seems to be willing to make the effort. On a day when the Federal Reserve said it would cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and end its efforts to sell some of the bonds in its own portfolio two months...
Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points; financial markets want more, more, more
Today the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee cut the Fed’s benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. That’s pretty much what the financial markets had been expecting–although a sizable minority of investors and traders had been hoping...
Adding silver to my market hedges: Buying First Majestic Silver for my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios
Way back last Friday, July 19, in my Friday Trick or Trend post on my subscription JubakAM.com site, I argued for adding silver to a portfolio because 1) it is a good hedge for portfolios in the second half of 2019, and because 2) silver, after lagging gold for the...
Goldilocks is alive and well, thanks to the U.S. consumer
The U.S. economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1% in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected that year over year growth in GDP would fall to 1.8%. So today’s...
A pause before tomorrow’s GDP report–and on worries about global growth
U.S. stocks paused as expected today ahead of tomorrow’s initial report on growth in U.S. GDP for the second quarter. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are expecting that GDP growth dipped to 1.8% year over year in the quarter, down from 3.1% in the first...
More plane troubles for Boeing–now it’s the 777x
Boeing (BA) shares fell today, dropping 3.12% at the close, after the company reported a massive quarterly loss and said that the production schedule (moving the first flight date to early 2020 from earlier guidance for late 2019) for its newest plane, the 777x, could...
Caterpillar earnings miss big, drag on industrials and Dow
Caterpillar (CAT) reported second quarter earnings this morning of $2.83 a share, well below the $3.11 a share expected by Wall Street analysts. And then, to make the future as grim as the present, Caterpillar rearmed its earnings guidance for the fiscal 2019 year of...
Justice Department to step up antitrust scrutiny of Facebook, Alphabet, Amazon and Apple
According to the Wall Street Journal this afternoon, the Justice Department is opening a broad antitrust review into whether dominant technology firms are unlawfully stifling competition. “The new antitrust inquiry is the strongest signal yet of Attorney General...
Could that be a debt ceiling/budget deal I see?
The White House and congressional Democrats are nearing a deal to raise the debt ceiling for two years and fund the government, CNBC, the Wall St Street Journal and other sources are reporting today. The deal would suspend the debt ceiling limit for two years and put...
Market rally today expands on last week’s “Microsoft rally”
Technology stocks drove the market higher today in an expansion of last week’s subdued but important “Microsoft rally” on that company’s earnings. With earnings from Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG), and Amazon (AMZN) on tap on Wednesday and...
How big are the problems at Netflix? Too big for bottom fishing yet
It’s not just the huge miss on subscriber growth that has sent shares of Netflix (NFLX) plunging in the two days since it reported second quarter earnings. The stock fell 10.27%, or $37.23 a share, on July 18 and it was down another 1.87% today as of 2 p.m. New...
The market dangers of this incompetent Federal Reserve
Add Thursday’s remarks by New York Fed President John Williams to those of Fed chair Jerome Powell back in December and the record shows this team at the Fed is the “Gang that Couldn’t Talk Straight.” In December Powell sent the markets...
Is divergence between Dow Transports and Dow Industrials something to worry about?
According to Dow Theory the transportation index leads the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher and lower. A divergence between a climbing Dow Industrial Average and a falling Down Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) is an indicator of trouble to come. And that...
Adding Tyson Foods as last of my 5 Value Picks Special Report–and adding to my 50 Stocks Portfolio
Today I’m making Tyson Foods (TSN) the fifth and final value pick in my Special Report 5 Value Stocks for a Market at an All-time High.That Special Report ran on my subscription JubakAM.com site. And I’m adding the shares to my long-term 50 Stocks...
President’s remarks remind markets there’s still a trade war going on
At a cabinet meeting today President Donald Trump wanted to remind everyone that he could still impose additional tariffs on Chinese imports if he wants. The President also expressed impatience that the truce in the trade war with China hadn’t yet resulted in a...
China’s economy continues to slow in second quarter
Of course, we can’t trust China’s official GDP statistics. Government economists cook the books so that China’s growth stays within the goals set by the country’s leaders every year. But investors should pay attention to the trend. And this...
The global debt bubble continues to inflate
Okay, we all know that the current rally that has pushed U.S. equities to one record after another is built on cheap money. That is on a Federal Reserve that has promised to cut interest rates one, two, or maybe even three times in 2019. And on a hope on Wall Street...
Using softness to add more Treasury exposure to Volatility Portfolio–maybe you should be adding Treasuries too
Treasury prices have been a little weak over the last two weeks. As a consequence the Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) and the Vanguard Short Term Treasury ETF (VGSH), for example, have dropped from highs on June 25 of $66.03 and $60.94, respectively, to...In the longer short term does the market’s intense focus on interest rate cuts from the Fed set up a trap for stocks?
Looking at what I called “the shortish short term” in a post yesterday, I said that in that time frame the market is likely to behave as if nothing much matters besides the Federal Reserve and interest rate cuts. The logic, I argued, works like this:...
Powell sounds even more dovish on interest rates but market shrugs
In the second day of his semi-annual testimony to Congress–this time in front of the Senate–Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell sounded even more likely to support an interest rate cut at the central bank’s July meeting. The Fed has room to cut...
Adding China Mobile to my 50 Stocks Portfolio
Recently in my Special Report on Disrupted Sectors on the coming 5G disruption to the telecom and Internet space on my subscription JubakAM.com site, I noted that China would be relatively early to roll out 5G capacity and handsets and that because of that timing and...
In the shortish short term does anything matter for U.S. financial markets except for the Fed?
Think about it this way: The bulk of investors and traders believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at both the July 31 and September 18 central bank meetings. A significant minority believes that the Fed will deliver more than just two 25 basis point...
July interest rate cut from Fed looks like done deal after Powell testimony
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell had an opportunity this morning to talk down the odds of an interest rate cut at the central bank’s July 31 meeting in testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee. He didn’t–and I think that makes...
PepsiCo beats on earnings as usual
Before the open today, July 9, PepsiCo (PEP) announced second quarter earnings ahead of analyst expectations. But with the stock already up 21.69% for 2019 to date, the market shrugged. PepsiCo shares fell 0.62% at the close. PepsiCo has beaten analyst earnings...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
Every post from Jubak Picks straight to your mailbox. And they're free!