July 15, 2019 @ 7:43 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Okay, we all know that the current rally that has pushed U.S. equities to one record after another is built on cheap money. That is on a Federal Reserve that has promised to cut interest rates one, two, or maybe even three times in 2019. And on a hope on Wall Street...
July 12, 2019 @ 7:30 pm | Breaking News, Buy, Update, VGIT, VGSH, Volatility |
Treasury prices have been a little weak over the last two weeks. As a consequence the Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) and the Vanguard Short Term Treasury ETF (VGSH), for example, have dropped from highs on June 25 of $66.03 and $60.94, respectively, to...
July 12, 2019 @ 7:20 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Looking at what I called “the shortish short term” in a post yesterday, I said that in that time frame the market is likely to behave as if nothing much matters besides the Federal Reserve and interest rate cuts. The logic, I argued, works like this:...
July 11, 2019 @ 7:38 pm | Breaking News, You May Have Missed |
In the second day of his semi-annual testimony to Congress–this time in front of the Senate–Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell sounded even more likely to support an interest rate cut at the central bank’s July meeting. The Fed has room to cut...
July 11, 2019 @ 7:30 pm | Breaking News, Buy, CHL, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio |
Recently in my Special Report on Disrupted Sectors on the coming 5G disruption to the telecom and Internet space on my subscription JubakAM.com site, I noted that China would be relatively early to roll out 5G capacity and handsets and that because of that timing and...
July 10, 2019 @ 6:31 pm | AAPL, Breaking News, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, You May Have Missed |
Think about it this way: The bulk of investors and traders believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at both the July 31 and September 18 central bank meetings. A significant minority believes that the Fed will deliver more than just two 25 basis point...
July 10, 2019 @ 6:24 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell had an opportunity this morning to talk down the odds of an interest rate cut at the central bank’s July 31 meeting in testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee. He didn’t–and I think that makes...
July 9, 2019 @ 7:17 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, PEP |
Before the open today, July 9, PepsiCo (PEP) announced second quarter earnings ahead of analyst expectations. But with the stock already up 21.69% for 2019 to date, the market shrugged. PepsiCo shares fell 0.62% at the close. PepsiCo has beaten analyst earnings...
July 8, 2019 @ 7:54 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Every word the Federal Reserve speaks this week and next will get examined in excruciating detail because with the Fed’s quiet period due to start on July 20, the central bank has less than two weeks to talk financial markets up or down ahead of the July 31...
July 8, 2019 @ 7:48 pm | Breaking News, Buy, DD, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio |
I’d be willing to be dollars to donuts that U.S. stocks won’t repeat their first half performance–up 17.4% on the Standard & Poor’s 500–in the second half of the year. It’s hard for me to find a catalyst that isn’t...
July 8, 2019 @ 7:41 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Today, the Bipartisan Policy Center said there is a “significant risk” that the U.S. will breach its debt limit in September unless Congress acts. The last time the independent think tank projected possible U.S. default the group pointed to October or November. The...
July 3, 2019 @ 5:19 pm | Breaking News |
U.S. financial markets are closed tomorrow for the Fourth of July. And so am I. All concerned will be back in business on Friday when we’re due to see the jobs numbers for June. Have a happy Fourth! Don’t scare the dog with too many fireworks. And stay...
July 3, 2019 @ 5:14 pm | Breaking News |
In a report on Monday the Purchasing Managers’ Index for the U.S. manufacturing sector slipped. For June the index moved down to 51.7 from 52.1 in May. That still signals expansion–anything over 50 denotes expansion, anything under 50 signals...
July 2, 2019 @ 7:28 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
In a speech today, July 2, in London Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, argued against an interest rate cut at the central bank’s July 31 meeting. “Cutting rates at this juncture could reinforce negative sentiment about a...
July 2, 2019 @ 7:23 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Join me on my search for the elusive catalyst that could take U.S. stocks higher from what is already an all-time high. Quiet, though, catalysts can be very shy. Peaking through the bushes surrounding the water hole, I can see signs of company earnings. The big banks,...
July 1, 2019 @ 7:13 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Earlier this morning–11 a.m. New York time–the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was up almost 1% on news that talks between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping had resulted in a trade truce and the resumption of talks aimed at...
June 28, 2019 @ 7:02 pm | Breaking News |
On June 26 I added Constellation Brands (STZ), my No. 2 pick in my 5 Best Value Picks Special Report on my JubakAM.com subscription site to my Volatility Portfolio on JubakAM.com and JugglingWithKnives.com. Today, June 28, Constellation Brands closed 4.73% higher on...
June 28, 2019 @ 6:54 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, picked up in May by 0.2% from April. That took the annual inflation rate to 1.6%. That was just above the median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg and...
June 27, 2019 @ 8:15 pm | Breaking News, Buy, Jubak Picks Portfolio, PANW, Volatility |
Today I made Palo Alto Networks (PANW) the sixth pick in my Special Report 10 Best Picks for the Rest of 2019 on my JubakAM.com subscription site. Tomorrow, June 28, I’ll add these shares to my Jubak Picks Portfolio and my Volatility Portfolio with a target...
June 27, 2019 @ 7:37 pm | Breaking News, Volatility |
Today with the yield on the 10-year Treasury down to 2.02%, a drop of 2 basis points, two Wall Street heavy weights are predicting that we haven’t seen a bottom in yield yet. Not by a long shot. Goldman Sachs today cut its forecast for the year-end yield on the...
June 26, 2019 @ 7:58 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, PXD, Volatility |
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude is now up 10% for the week following on a 2.44% jump in price to $59.24 a barrel today. International benchmark Brent crude gained 1.94% to $66.31 a barrel. Continued tensions between the United States and Iran, of course,...
June 26, 2019 @ 7:48 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
So what does the United States want out of the Saturday talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping? In a Wednesday interview with Fox Business Network’s Maria Bartiromo Trump thoroughly confused expectations. The market consensus had been...
June 25, 2019 @ 7:05 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The financial markets are getting ahead of themselves in a bad case of rate cut fever, Fed chair Jerome Powell, and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard both said today. This is a message that I’ve been waiting to hear as the financial markets moved to price in...
June 24, 2019 @ 7:49 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
You can measure exactly how worried the oil sector is about more attacks in the Persian Gulf by trading the insurance premiums for oil tankers in the region. War risk premiums for a standard oil cargo from the Persian Gulf and the tanker hauling it can now cost...
June 21, 2019 @ 7:49 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, TCEHY, Update, You May Have Missed |
In my first three picks for my Special Report 10 Best Picks for the Next Six Months of 2019 on my subscription site JubakAM.com I’ve focused on index ETFs that, in my opinion, will ride the big trend of lower interest rates higher in 2019. In other words, these...
June 20, 2019 @ 6:29 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Update, VMC, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
In the next 20 years spending on seawalls to protect communities could cost as much as the initial investment in the interstate highway system. Total spending to defend against rising ocean levels could run to $416 billion in the next 20 years, according to a report...
June 20, 2019 @ 6:21 pm | Breaking News, Jubak Picks Portfolio, VGSH |
Last night I made Vanguard Short Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) the No. 2 pick in my Special Report 10 Best Picks for the Next 6 Months of 2019 on my JubakAM.com subscription site. Today I’m adding it to my Jubak Picks Portfolio on all my sites. I’m calling this...
June 19, 2019 @ 7:01 pm | AAPL, Breaking News, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio |
President Donald Trump has argued that slapping higher tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the United States would bring jobs back to this country–if China didn’t agree to a new trade deal–as companies moved factories in order to avoid the higher...
June 19, 2019 @ 6:54 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
So much for “patient.” Today after the meeting of the Open Market Committee on interest rates the Federal Reserve announced that it would leave benchmark interest rates at the current 2.25% to 2.50%. But in its words the Fed delivered what the market hoped...
June 18, 2019 @ 7:41 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Apparently U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will talk at next week’s meeting of the Group of 20 in Osaka Japan. President Trump tweeted his morning: “Had a very good telephone conversation with President Xi of China. We will be...