Another day, another hotter than hoped inflation number
The Labor Department reported Friday that its producer price index—which tracks inflation before it reaches consumers—rose 0.3% from December to January. The index had dropped -0.1% in December. Measured year over year, producer prices rose by 0.9% in January. But the...
I won’t worry too much about stocks until investors stop buying on the dip
Remember all that fear talk on Tuesday after CPI headline inflation came in at a 3.1% annual rate in January versus the projected 2.9%? Well, that lasted all of a day. Stocks closed up yesterday, February 14 (Happy Valentine’s Day), and again today, February 15. The...
Good but disappointing news on CPI inflation for January
Headline, all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell again in January, but not by as much as economists had projected before this morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In January prices rose at 3.1% year-over-year. That’s a slower increase...
The surge in the U.S. debt couldn’t be coming at a worse time
The United States is on a pace to add nearly $19 trillion to its national debt over the next decade, according to a new report from the Congressional Budget Office released today, Wednesday, February 7. The budget office projected that the annual deficit will grow to...
Here we are again: 10-year Treasury yields back at 4.16% yesterday, up 14 basis points in the morning
Maybe you can’t remember when the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell through 4% and looked headed to 3.5%. It might be hard to remember because it was so long ago. Like two weeks. Monday, February 5, the yield on the 10-year Treasury completed a round trip,...
Federal Reserve disappoints, comes close to taking a March cut in interest rates off the table
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday in a range of 5.25%-5.50%–as the financial markets expected. But the central bank pushed back more strongly on than financial marks hoped on a March 20 schedule for the first cut in rates....Microsoft beats on earnings, but stock is flat
It is perhaps too early to draw meaningful conclusions, but Microsoft’s failure to jump on better than expected earnings sure seems like more evidence that this is a market priced to perfection. After the close today, January 30, Microsoft reported fiscal second...
Visa beats but falls on guidance–that’s what “priced for perfection” means
After the close Thursday, Visa (V) reported earnings of $2.41 a share (after adjusting for one-time items) for the December 2023 quarter. (That’s the company’s fiscal first quarter.) Analysts had been looking for $2.34 a share in adjusted earnings. Revenue grew...
Big news for the week ahead isn’t the Fed meeting but Apple earnings report
Yes, it’s a Federal Reserve meeting week, but I expect Apple’s (AAPL) earnings report for its December quarter to be the big event of the week. With the potential to move the tech sector and the market. Fed first. The Fed’s interest rate setting body, the Open Market...
3M plunges as company delivers exactly the kind of bad earnings news investors fear
3M (MMM) fell 11.03% today, Tuesday, January 23, the most in nearly five years, after announcing projections for 2024 sales and earnings below Wall Street expectations. Now granted that 3M is a special case–the company is engaged in a huge restructuring effort...
Will the Magnificent Seven stocks let the market down?
The Magnificent Seven stocks accounted for virtually all of 2023’s 24% stock market gain. The Magnificent Seven stocks are Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA). And according to Wall...
Xi’s plan for stimulus and stock market boost fails to convince China traders
China will launch a new stabilization package including about 2 trillion yuan ($278 billion) to buy mainland shares via offshore trading links in the coming days, government sources say. This would come after a market rout that has erased more than $6 trillion in...
China economic growth hit official target in 2022, but population plunge accelerates
Well, what did you expect Chinese officials to talk about at Davos? Yesterday, Premier Li Qiang said in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that China’s economy is expected to have grown 5.2% in 2023. Which would exceed the government’s target...
Not so fast–the rethink of when the Fed will start to cut rates continues to hit stock and bond prices
Last month, the bond market was almost fully pricing the first interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in March. Now, though the odds for a 25 basis point cut in that month are down to more like 50/50. Today, January 17, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose...
Hertz pulls the plug on electric cars–especially Tesla
Hertz (HTZ) plans to sell a third of its U.S. electric vehicle fleet and reinvest in gas-powered cars. The company says the shift is due to weak demand and high repair costs for its electric vehicle fleet. Which is dominated by Tesla’s electric vehicles. Electric...
Is the debt market ignoring the coming wave of bond supply?
Right now all that the bond market and indeed all the financial markets care about is when will the Federal Reserve begin to cut interest rates. The consensus is that sometime relatively soon–March or more likely June–the Fed will begin to deliver interest...
Good news for chip stocks–well, for some chip stocks
In November global chip sales rose for the first time in more than a year. Global semiconductor revenue added up to $48 billion in November, a 5.3% increase from a year earlier, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. Sales rose a more moderate 2.9% from...
Earnings season starts–Part 1 banks to disappoint
Earnings season for the fourth quarter of 2023 begins on Friday, January 12 with reports from the big banks: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), and Bank of America (BAC). Which means that earnings season is going start off with a dull thud. More...
Big tech NASDAQ 100 records four-day losing streak
Market forecast or self-fulfilling prophecy? Wall Street strategists began the year calling for a pull back in U.S. stocks after the huge year-end rally of 2023. So far that call is right on. NASDAQ 100 stocks fell 1.1% today, Wednesday, January 3, to extend their...
BYD climbs over Tesla to become No. 1 in electric car deliveries in the fourth quarter
This change at the top of the electric car market was widely expected. The only debate was whether it take place in the last quarter of 2023 or early in 2024. Now, we know. With both Tesla (TSLA) and BYD (BYDDF) reporting fourth quarter delivery numbers in the last...
Adding Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD to portfolios tomorrow
Today I made BYD (BYDFF) the eighth pick in my Special Report 10 GREATER Growth Stocks. Here’s what I wrote in my post on JubakAm.com. Pick #8: BYD (BYDDF). I know; I know. What’s a Chinese stock doing on this list? It’s here because BYD, not Tesla (TSLA) is the big...
Don’t forget year-end tax loss harvesting–it could be extra valuable this year
You have until December 31–which effectively means Friday December 29 (although I wouldn’t push the deadline, personally) to sell your losers this year to off set any gains from winners you sold during the year. Given the way the year has unfolded, harvesting...
Merry Christmas to all
I wish you all a Merry Christmas. Or a Happy Holiday of your choice. Hope Santa brings you everything you wished for. (And that you don’t get two more reindeer sweaters.) Looking forward to a more peaceful new year. One can always hope. As always, thanks for reading....
Is the good news priced in for Micron?
Right now memory chip maker Micro Technology (MU) is a microcosm of the stock market as a whole. There’s good news–pretty clearly–on the horizon. But the worry is that it’s already mostly priced into the stock. This week Micron, the largest U.S. maker of...
Bonds keep chugging higher, stock investors have doubts
Bond traders and investors kept the bond rally going today December 20. The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped another 8 basis points to 3.85% today. The yield on the 2-year note fell 4 basis points to 4.40%. The drop in yields came as a result of gains in bond...
S&P 500 earnings on track to grow by just 0.6% in 2023
So how much does the year-end stock market rally depend on the Federal Reserve and the anticipation of interest rate cuts in 2023? A huge amount. Perhaps a frightening large amount. Given the very slim year-over-year growth in earnings and revenue likely for 2023 when...
U.S. oil production hits a record, destroying OPEC’s supply cut strategy
The world’s No. 2 oil producer, Saudi Arabia, wants to cut oil production to raise oil prices. And has even actually curtailed production to meet that goal. The world’s No. 3 oil producer, Russia, wants (others mostly) to cut oil production to raise prices. And has...
Apple hit with patent judgment that puts quarterly sales growth in question
The hope among investors and on Wall Street was that Apple (AAPL) would show revenue growth when it reported its fiscal first quarter earnings in January. That growth would be the first in a year after four straight quarters of falling sales. That’s the longest streak...
Moderna shares jump today on positive results in skin cancer vaccine trials
Shares of Moderna (MRNA) were up 13.67% to $89.15 as of noon New York time today, December 14. They closed ahead 9.25% at $85.87. A vaccine developed by Merck and Moderna helped prevent the recurrence of severe skin cancer for three years, according to new results...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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