September 13, 2019 @ 7:18 pm | Breaking News |
One way to understand of the recent market action–one way that makes sense to me–is to think of it as a big short squeeze. The drop in Treasury yields and the climb in Treasury prices went to far in August with Treasuries showing their biggest monthly gain...
September 12, 2019 @ 8:03 pm | Breaking News |
If it had come to a formal vote, there’s a good chance that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi would have faced defeat in his efforts to revive quantitative easing at the central bank. But the bank doesn’t usually hold a formal vote on a issue...
September 11, 2019 @ 7:54 pm | Breaking News |
The resignation/firing of John Bolton, a long-time advocate of military action against Iran, as National Security Advisor to President Donald Trump, has send oil prices tumbling today. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate is down 2.42% to $56.01 a barrel....
September 11, 2019 @ 7:48 pm | Breaking News, Dividend Income Portfolio, PFE |
Why introduce legislation that will dead on arrival in the Republican controlled Senate? Because House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats know that controlling drug prices is extremely popular with voters. And a proposal that is a serious effort to lower drug...
September 9, 2019 @ 7:18 pm | Breaking News |
Will the European Central Bank revive its program of bond-buying when it meets on Thursday? The bank only ended this program of quantitative easing in December. The markets are currently pricing in a new program of 40 billion euros a month in bond purchases–plus...
September 9, 2019 @ 7:10 pm | Breaking News, GOLD, Jubak Picks Portfolio, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
It’s by no means a guarantee of gains, but owing shares of a company that is riding the wave of positive macro and micro trends does indeed usually result in solid profits. On the macro side, Barrick Gold has global trends pointing toward toward higher gold...
September 5, 2019 @ 6:54 pm | Breaking News |
Companies are set to borrow $74 billion in the investment-grade bond market this week. That’s the most for a week since records began in 1972. The issuers include Coca-Cola (KO), Walt Disney (DIS), and Apple (AAPL). At least another $50 billion in corporate bond...
September 4, 2019 @ 7:42 pm | Breaking News |
As of 2 p.m. New York time U.S. stocks were higher on just about no meaningful news. To me it looks like the market wants to climb in the very near term–testing technical momentum to move to 2950 on the Standard & Poor’s 500 and maybe beyond. The...
September 3, 2019 @ 8:00 pm | Breaking News |
It was the kind of session that only Parliament can produce: jeering, catcalls, and mid-speech by Prime Minister Boris Johnson the dramatic resignation of a Conservative member of Parliament who got up from his seat and walked over to join his new party the Liberal...
September 3, 2019 @ 7:54 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index fell to 49.1 in August, according to data released this morning. That was below all the forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In this survey anything below 50 indicates that a sector is...
August 29, 2019 @ 7:39 pm | Breaking News, Buy, Jubak Picks Portfolio, QSR |
Today I’m raising my target price for Restaurant Brands International (QSR) because I think the new Popeye’s chicken sandwich has legs. A social media storm has accompanied the introduction of a new chicken sandwich at Popeye’s to compete with...
August 28, 2019 @ 7:51 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Recessions have a huge “sentiment” component in their causation. Consumers and CEOs look around at the economy, assess their feelings about the future economy, and decide that the prudent course is to cut back on spending to prepare for the coming economic...
August 28, 2019 @ 7:48 pm | Breaking News, Volatility |
This morning the U.S. Energy Information Administration surprised the markets with the report of a bigger than expected decline in oil stockpiles. Crude inventories fell by 10 million barrels for the week ended August 16. The prior week showed a drawdown of 2.7...
August 27, 2019 @ 7:12 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
With the proviso that no one is inside the head of Chinese President Xi Jinping (except Xi himself) and that this is all speculative analysis which carries it’s own bias, I think it’s worth taking seriously reports that Xi may have a Trump problem that...
August 27, 2019 @ 7:02 pm | Breaking News, Buy |
This morning you could hear the gears whirring as Wall Street strategists tried to position their portfolios so they were hedged against U.S-China trade war risk but also positioned to catch any bounce on good news on the trade front and ahead of the September 18...
August 26, 2019 @ 6:33 pm | Breaking News |
The U.S.-China trade war continues to erode business confidence in Germany. Business confidence in the country, home to Europe’s largest economy, fell to its weakest level in almost seven years as a deepening manufacturing slump put the German economy on the...
August 26, 2019 @ 6:21 pm | Breaking News |
This morning President Donald Trump told reporters at the Group of Seven summit that over the weekend there had been significant progress in negotiations to end the U.S.-China trade war. “We’ve gotten two calls and very, very good calls,” Trump told reporters at the...
August 23, 2019 @ 7:49 pm | Breaking News |
That didn’t take long. This afternoon President Donald Trump said he would raise tariffs to retaliation to this morning’s move by China to impose a new 10% tariff on $75 billion in U.S. exports to China. Trump’s move would increase tariffs already in...
August 23, 2019 @ 7:37 pm | Breaking News |
Xi Jinping and Donald Trump upstaged Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell this morning. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech this morning was supposed to be the day’s big market event. (More on this speech in a later post.) But this morning China announced that it...
August 22, 2019 @ 10:50 pm | Breaking News, Update, XOM, You May Have Missed |
On Monday, August 19, I posted a deep dive into the financials at Concho Resources (CXO) to illustrate some of the pressures weighing on the stocks of oil shale producers. Now Exxon Mobil (XOM) is a very different kind of oil company. It’s diversified globally....
August 22, 2019 @ 10:43 pm | AAPL, Breaking News, Jubak Top 50 Portfolio, Volatility |
Two big clouds of doubt hover over shares of Apple (AAPL). First, will the continuing U.S.-China trade war take another bite out of Apple’s China revenue? And/Or disrupt Apple’s China supply chain, saddling the company with higher tariffs on its made in...
August 21, 2019 @ 7:47 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The financial market didn’t get what it had hoped for out of today’s release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July 31 meeting. The market was hoping for something in the minutes that pointed toward a shift in Fed policy toward an extended...
August 20, 2019 @ 7:34 pm | Breaking News, Buy |
As you know from my recent marketing offers for my subscription site JubakAM.com, I’ve put together a Special Report on that site with 5 steps to get your portfolio ready for the big one. I’ve finally finished my complete list of sells in Step #2 of...
August 20, 2019 @ 7:20 pm | Breaking News |
It didn’t take much to end the optimism of the past few days and turn the market at least mildly pessimistic today. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told CNBC this morning that Huawei Technologies isn’t the only Chinese company that poses security risks...
August 20, 2019 @ 7:13 pm | Breaking News, You May Have Missed |
After-hours on July 31, Concho Resources (CXO), the biggest producer in the low-cost, high-yield Permian Basin, reported earnings of 69 cents a share for the second quarter of 2019. That missed the Wall Street consensus by 3 cents a share. Revenue climbed 19.3% year...
August 19, 2019 @ 7:55 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
Gotta love that financial market enthusiasm for central banks. Last week the markets rallied on signals from the European Central Bank that it would cut its key interest rate–now at a negative 0.40%–to a negative -0.50%, lower the rates that banks pay to...
August 16, 2019 @ 7:21 pm | Breaking News |
We’ve seen this play before: Financial markets start to tumble and central banks step in–not with actual stimulus quite yet but certainly with talk of stimulus. The European Central Bank and the German government took a turn today. Germany’s Der...
August 15, 2019 @ 7:03 pm | Breaking News |
Retail sales in July climbed 0.7% from June. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had predicted a 0.3% climb. Retail sales excluding autos were up 1.0% month over month. Economists had projected a 03% gain. Nonstore retail sales (that is the Internet) were up 2.8%...
August 14, 2019 @ 7:34 pm | Breaking News, Buy, GDX, IEF, Jubak Picks Portfolio |
Last night on my JubakAM.com subscription site I added Step #1 to my Special Report 5 Is Your Portfolio Ready for the Next Big? The post below is a cut and paste of the material I added to the Special Report. I’m posting it separately here to make it accessible...
August 14, 2019 @ 7:18 pm | Breaking News, Volatility, You May Have Missed |
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 800.49 points today, or 3.05%; the Standard & Poor’s 500 finished 2.93% lower; and the NASDAQ Composite lost 3.02%. One reason for the plunge was an intraday inversion in the Treasury yield curve with the yield...