Could collapse of U.S.-China trade talks trigger a second Federal Reserve Put?
You’re aware, I hope, of the idea that there’s an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like...
At least someone wants to buy TD Ameritrade–can we say the same for Citibank?
Interesting column by Matt Levine on Bloomberg Opinion today. In the piece “Schwab Broke Ameritrade to Buy It” he points out that the acquisition bid from Charles Schawb (SCHW) today to buy TD Ameritrade (AMTD) for a reported $26 billion comes after...
Oil rallies on actual inventory numbers after falling yesterday on projections
The Energy Information Administration reported today that U.S. oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub fell by 2.3 million barrels. That was the biggest draw down in inventory at Cushing in three months. Supplies at the Cushing Hub reflect production in the U.S....
Senate passes Hong Kong support bill, House to take it up today scrambling China trade talks
As you might imagine, this complicates things. Just as U.S. and Chinese negotiators struggle to put together a Part 1 deal to de-escalate the U.S.-China trade war, the two houses of the U.S. Congress are moving to pass legislation that would support pro-democracy...
iPhone sales up in China continuing Apple revenue momentum
Apple (AAPL) shipped 10 million iPhones in China during September and October, according to Bloomberg. That would be an increase of 6% from the same period in 2019. The projections add to speculation that sales of the iPhone 11 are running ahead of Wall Street...
Oil prices under pressure as OPEC meeting looms
Oil prices are down significantly today, November 19, on speculation that data to be released tomorrow will show a fourth straight weekly increase in U.S. oil inventories and nervousness about a successful conclusion to U.S.-China Part 1 trade talks. As of 1:30 p.m....
Nvidia climbing with chip rally, keeping as Jubak Pick
After the close on November 14 Nvidia (NVDA) announced fiscal third quarter 2020 quarterly earnings of $1.78 a share, 20 cents a share above the Wall Street consensus. Revenue of $3.10 billion was $92.21 million above projections. Chip stocks are currently among the...
Fed report notes that continuing low interest rates could threaten U.S. (and global) financial security.
Well, duh. Yesterday Fed chairman Jerome Powell told the House Budget Committee that”we’re in a world of much lower interest rates.” He seemed to shrug his shoulders at the prospect as if to say, Hey that’s what it is and the Fed doesn’t...
White House again says China deal is near; Wall Street says show us the signatures
The White House rolled out another round of its ongoing soap opera “As the Deal Turns.” starring, this week Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow (again.) The stock market yawned. “If you look at whenever they say...
Does Fed, market complacency make you nervous?
“The U.S. economy is the star economy these days,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told the House Budget Committee today, November 14. “There is no reason to think that I could see that the probability of a recession is at all elevated at this time.” “Our forecast is, and our...
Powell refuses chance to say the Fed is on interest rate hold through 2020
Given a chance to say that the Federal Reserve will keep its interest rate policy on hold through 2020, Fed chair Jerome Powell refused to take the bait at this morning’s testimony in front of the congressional Joint Economic Committee. “We see the current...
Disney hits new record price on launch of streaming service
The bad news is that 10 million customers tried to sign up for Disney+ on Tuesday, intermittently crashing the website for Disney’s (DIS) new streaming service. The good news is that 10 million customers flocked to the newly launched streaming service and by Day...
Record Singles’ Day sales support growth optimism on China
By the time Taylor Swift closed down the festivities at midnight with the last of three songs, Alibaba (BABA) had recorded sales of $38.4 billion for the Singles’ Day e-commerce shopping monster. This year’s total beat out last year’s record $30.8...
Tech stocks acting like they’re good to rally to the end of the year
I’m using my Volatility Portfolio pick Cirrus Logic (CRUS) as an indicator of the trend in technology stocks–particularly chip stocks–through the end of 2019. (I track this portfolio on my subscription sites JubakAM.com and JugglingWithKnives.com.)...
Tariff roll back or not? Markets certainly don’t know.
The uncertainty extends even to whether or not a Part 1 trade deal between the United States and China will even get signed in 2019. Yesterday, China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said negotiators had “agreed to remove additional tariffs in phases as...
Failure to set Trump-Xi meeting place and date stalls market
It now looks likely that President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping may not be able to sign that Part 1 trade deal until December. The two sides still haven’t set a date or a place. The Chinese have ruled out the first two U.S. suggestions of Iowa and...
Ho, hum–another day, another all time high driven by FOMO
Today, Monday November 4, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its first new all-time high since July. The Standard & Poor’s 500 and the NASDAQ Composite also saw new highs. Stocks gave up some of their gains into the close but the Dow still finished up...
Apple beats on earnings per share and raises holiday quarter forecast
After the close today Apple reported fiscal fourth quarter revenue of $64 billion. That was up from $62.9 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018 and above the $63 billion consensus forecast from Wall Street analysts. Net income dropped to $13.7 billion from...
The Fed interest rate pause that …
Distresses? Refreshes? Isn’t important? Today, as expected the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate for the third time this year. The Fed lowers its benchmark rate 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%. At the same time the Fed signaled that it...
Merck continues to ride cancer drug Keytruda higher
Shares of Merck (MRK) closed up 3.50% today, October 29, after the company reported better than expected third quarter earnings. On a Non-GAAP basis earrings of $1.51 a share beat the Wall Street consensus by 27 cents a share. Revenue of $12.4 billion fell 6.7% year...
Oil earnings expected to disappoint starting with BP tomorrow and then continuing with ExxonMobil and Chevron on Friday
The oil supermajors–ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX),Royal Dutch Shell (RDS), Total (TOT) and BP (BP)–are expected to show a 42% year over year average plummet in third quarter earnings when they report earnings this week. That’s an even bigger slump...
What are the implications for FinTech disruption from Visa’s earnings?
It’s not exactly a ringing endorsement but it was enough to send share prices higher in after-hours trading by 1.1% on Thursday and by 0.8% in regular trading on Friday. Visa (V) earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter were better than expected. The company...
Consumers look to be holding up but I wouldn’t call them super-positive
The University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment was revised down to 95.5 in October from an initial reading of 96 today. That leaves the index at the monthly average for 2019. But well below the post-recession peak of 101.4 set in early 2018. Consumer...
Implications of McDonald’s earnings miss
On October 22 McDonald’s (MCD) reported third quarter earnings of $2.11 a share. That was a big 11 cents a share below Wall Street expectations. Revenue of $5.43 billion for the quarter was up just 1.1% year over year and $40 million below Wall Street consensus....
An Amazon quarter disappoints but not for the usual reasons
You know what an “Amazon quarter” feels like right? Lots of revenue growth but no earnings as capital spending eats profits? Well, that’s sort of what the company delivered today. But not quite. And the not quite is important. Usually an Amazon...
Microsoft’s earnings beat last night sets up Amazon and Apple earnings to come
Last night, October 23, after the market close, Microsoft (MSFT) reported earnings and revenue beats for its fiscal first quarter. Revenue climbed 14% year over year, beating Wall Street forecasts by $860 million. Earnings of $1.38 a share exceeded Wall Street...
Beyond Meat takes another beating on worries about next round of insider selling
Shares of Beyond Meat (BYND) dropped 7.99% to close below $100 (at $97.90) for the first time since June 3. The drop cut gains for the plant-based “meat” company since its IPO to a mere 292%. Driving the drop are fears that insiders will sell a day after...
A tale of two tech markets as Texas Instruments and Apple move in opposite directions.
Shares of Texas Instruments (TXN) closed down 7.48% today after the company reported that third-quarter earning felt $1.49 a share from $1.58 a share in the third quarter of 2018. Revenue dropped 11% year over year. On the other hand, shares of Apple continued to move...
Enthusiasm for this quarter’s earnings; worry about guidance for 2020
Today the Standard & Poor’s 500 matched a 12-week high and made yet another assault on a new all-time record. Better than expected earnings have been the market driver. Some 81% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported for the quarter so far have...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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