Inflection point for stocks approaches
Today what I’m calling “re-opening dependent” stock fell again. At least in the early going. Toward the end of session–like yesterday–these stocks and stocks in general rallied. Which in and of itself tells us something important about...
Amazon gets more competition from Walmart
Walmart (WMT) will launch a new subscription service, Walmart+ later this month according to Recode.com. For $98 a year, a price comparable to Amazon Prime, subscribers will get same-day delivery of groceries and general merchandise, discounts on fuel at Walmart gas...
Analyst upgrade is catalyst for 6.17% jump in Acadia Pharmaceuticals today
Stifel analyst Paul Matteis upgraded Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) to a Buy from a Hold today and raised his target price to $71 from $41. (Shares closed at $57 today, up 6.17%) The upgrade from Matteis was especially powerful since he has been skeptical on the stock...
Today markets forget China rally and return to coronavirus recession worries with UAL announcement
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) has warned employees that it has seen a sharp drop in bookings in the last few weeks. Bookings at United’s Newark hub were at 16% of July 2019 levels as of July 1. That rate is roughly half of the level a few weeks ago when it...
China powers “risk on” rally
Chinese stocks are burning up the track–and that has led the way to a shift toward “risk on” assets across global markts. Today alone the Shanghai Composite Index was up 5.71% as of noon New York Time. This continued as streak that has seen the CSI...
Pfizer good news on coronavirus vaccine moves stocks ahead
Just in case you were wondering if the market is counting on a coronavirus vaccine in the nearer term, wonder no longer. (Expectations, for the moment, look to a vaccine by January, if I can judge by comments I’m seeing.) News from Pfizer (PFE) and partner...
Apple says it will close 30 more stores
I’m using Apple (AAPL) as one indicator for the state of the re-opening economy. Apple’s decision today to re-close 30 more of its stores in seven states, including Alabama, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas and Utah,...
Royal Dutch Shell to take $15 to $22 billion second quarter write down
It’s a measure of how dire things are in the oil sector that Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A) has announced a write down of between $15 billion and $22 billion for the second quarter. The write down is larger than the $17.5 billion write down that BP (BP) took in June...
The debt load for consumers and companies just keeps rising
We’ll soon get new figures from the Federal Reserve now that the second quarter is coming to an end today, but I’d guess that the debt picture won’t be better than it was at the end of the first quarter on March 31. At the end of May non-financial...Wells Fargo says it will cut its current dividend after Fed stress test
Wells Fargo (WFC) said today that it will cut its current 51-cent dividend after the Federal Reserve’s most recent round of stress tests set new limits on dividend payouts and share buybacks. The bank said it will announce the size of the cut on July 14 when it...
Don’t fight the Fed? Well, maybe
The advice “Don’t fight the Fed” makes sense. If the Fed is flooding the financial markets with cash, then buy and follow along as the Fed makes money available to drive up asset prices. If the Fed is tightening, reducing the available supply of...
Patterns and positioning after today’s weakness in stocks
I think anyone who tells you they “know” where stocks are going next week is either smoking something (and I’d like some, please) or is looking to sell you something. In the last two weeks we’ve seen a market that was totally willing to look...
Turns out re-opening is easy; staying re-opened is hard
With Texas setting a one-day high for new coronavirus cases on Wednesday at 6,584 Governor Greg Abbott reversed a pledge that that going “backward” and closing down businesses was “the last thing we want to do.” Effective today bars must close (although they can...
Selling Salesforce out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio as shares hit target price
Salesforce (CRM) has hit my $185 a share target price. I’m selling it out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio with a 37.42% gain since I added that position back on November 1, 2018. Why sell rather than up the target price? A couple of four reasons for what amounts to...
Selling Japanese yen ETF out of Jubak Picks Portfolio
A while back I sold the Invesco Currency Shares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) out of my Perfect Five ETF Portfolio because I was looking for more diversification in that limited five ETF portfolio. (I replaced it with the iShares Large Cap China ETF (FXI) on April 20, 2020....
Fed’s stress test for 34 big U.S. banks says no share buybacks, no increases in dividends
After the close for the New York markets, the Federal Reserve announced the results of its newest round of stress tests on 34 big U.S. banks. For the first time, the Fed added scenarios for a V-shaped recession and recovery; a slower, U-shaped recession and recovery;...
Double whammy: IMF downgrades growth forecast, states report surging coronavirus cases
As of 1 p.m. today the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index was down 2.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower by 2.29%. The tech-heavy NASDAQn Composite, a recent market bulwark, dropped 1.80% and the Russell 2000 small cap index resumed its...
July is shaping up as the cruelest month in the coronavirus economy
In May governments shed more than 570,000 workers as states and cities grappled with huge budget shortfalls created by the coronavirus pandemic and shutdowns of economic activity imposed in an effort to get the outbreak under control. those layoffs are going to get...
Big banks face Fed stress test this week
What’s a week without a good chance that the Federal Reserve will roil the stock market? On Thursday June 25, the Federal Reserve will release results of its annual bank stress tests on June 25. At stake will be bank plans for dividend payouts. Banks that...
Raising my target price on Incyte to $120 a share after 58.5% gain in last 3 months
I admit it. I feel silly talking about price targets and valuations in this market. After all everything is just going to the sky. Infinity and Beyond!!! But, as silly as I may feel, I don’t think the gods of investing have repealed the laws of valuation. At...
Apple re-shuts some U.S. stores on rise in coronavirus in Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and South Carolina
Nothing sums up the uncertainty of the re-opening economy and the continued coronavirus pandemic than news today that Apple (AAPL) is temporarily again shutting some of its U.S. retail stores. The 11 closed stores are in Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and South...
Weekly new claims for unemployment drop again–but at slower than expected pace
If the contests between the stock market–which sees a rapid V-shaped recovery for the economy–and the Federal Reserve–which sees a slow recovery very stretching over two years, today’s report on New Claims for Unemployment comes down on slow...
Stock patterns today show deep uncertainty about market direction in today’s buying and selling
It wasn’t a day for big moves in U.S. stocks. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed ahead 0.06% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off 0.15%, for example. Nobody wants to get every far ahead of the trend–whichever direction it’s...
Stop torturing the data to determine the “reality” of the coronavirus re-opening–Look to an early adopter model from technology to determine the stock market trend from the re-opening economy
I’m as much in favor of reality as the next guy. Maybe more so. And during the coronavirus pandemic and the current economic re-opening I’ve been scarfing up every bit of data that I can. I begin my day by digging into the latest news of cases n Arizona,...
Oil inventories prove stubbornly high
Inventories of gasoline and distillates fell last week, as they should even in a coronavirus-impacted summer driving season, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported today. But crude inventories remained stubbornly high, an indication that the rise in...
Retail sales soar in May; Wall Street decides it’s a sign of a V-shaped recovery for the economy
May retail sales surged 17.7% from April. The pickup was a record month over month gain in data going back to 1992, the Commerce Department reported this morning. Stocks jumped on the news–as well as a trial balloon testing the waters on yet another attempt at a...
Dancing around the 200-day moving average
At 3:00 p.m. New York time, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.33%to 3012.13. That, not so coincidently, is almost exactly the 200-day moving average for the index at 3012.39. Today, no big bounce after yesterday’s 5.89% drop for the index. Bargain...
What happens when computer trading programs and individual investors agree? You get a 6% drop in stocks
I don’t know who/what started the rout today, human beings or machines. But conditions were ripe for selling from both sources. On the human side, investors were looking at gains of 50% or more in the last month in stocks that had been crushed by the coronavirus...
New claims for unemployment rise by 1.54 million for week ended June 6
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits continued to trend lower with 1.54 million workers applying in the week ended June 6. That’s down from 1.9 million initial claims in the prior week. (Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected 1.55 million...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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