If China’s growth is slowing, can the U.S. and other economies be far behind?
That’s the worry set off by the announcement last week by the People’s Bank of China that it would cut the reserve requirement for China’s big banks by 50 basis points. While economists had been expecting the move from the People’s Bank, they...
For one day at least the central banks are back in charge of stock and bond markets
Stocks rallied today and bond prices moved higher (sending bond yields lower) on news that China People’s Bank and the European Central Bank would both pursue monetary moves to bolster growth. The People’s bank reduced the amount of cash that banks have to...
Watch my new YouTube video: QuickPick: EVGO for fast charging
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The thirty-third YouTube video “QuickPick: EVGO for fast charging” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
How about this for an explanation for the weakness in stocks over the past few days: The computers are messing with us
I’ve read all the headlines explaining today’s drop in stocks, and yesterday’s and the day before. The chaos at OPEC and in oil prices. Fears that the economic recovery is slowing. Thoughts that inflation isn’t a worry and that instead we...
Initial claims for unemployment soar (NOT) by 2,000
Initial claims for unemployment in regular state programs rose by 2,000 to 373,000 for the week ended July 3, the Labor Department reported today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for initial claims to drop to 350,000. Now this may be disappointing to...
Trying to walk a fine line on sentiment over the next three months
Here’s my take on market sentiment over the next three months. First, in the very short-run, for the next four weeks of earnings season, it’s hard for me to imagine that investors and traders will sell ahead of one of the biggest surges in year over year...
Watch my new YouTube video: “OPEC and the threat to green energy stocks
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The thirty-second YouTube video “OPEC and the threat to green energy stocks” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see...
OPEC+ is in crisis again–but since no one knows quite what the result is likely to be, we’ve had big swings in sentiment and prices in the oil market (and in banks, other commodities, and the inflation/deflation play) today
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its affiliated oil producers (OPEC+) abandoned their Monday meeting after days of tense talks failed to result in an agreement on a tentative deal to increase production, and even over how to measure production....
Friday’s move in tech signals that’s where you want to be for a second quarter earnings blowout
Friday’s market action argues that investors and traders are looking to buy shares of Apple, Amazon, Microsoft–you know the usual suspects–ahead of what looks like a blowout earnings season that will start on July 13 when JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reports...
New claims for unemployment fall in set up for tomorrow June jobs report
Initial claims for unemployment in regular state programs fell by 51,000 to 364,000 for the week ended June26, the Labor Department reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for 388,000 new claims. The drop to 364,000 still left initial...
Buying AMD shares and options tomorrow as my play on a second quarter earnings season surprise
Yesterday in my video “3 Picks for an Earnings Blowout” I argued the case that even the 61% second quarter year to year jump in earnings in the Wall Street analyst consensus was unerstated. For example, I noted that the current estimate of $44.91 a share...
Stocks edge higher on positive ADP jobs report ahead of Friday’s June employment numbers
Private payrolls rose more than expected in June, ADP reported this morning, with a gain of 692,000 jobs. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for a gain of 600,000 jobs. The figure was a drop from the 886,000 jobs aded by private employers in May. The...
Watch my new YouTube video: 3 Picks for the Earnings Blowout
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The thirtieth YouTube video “3 Picks for the Earnings Blowout” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
With Fed stress test behind them, banks announce deluge of dividend increases and share buybacks
That didn’t take long. On Thursday the Federal Reserve reported that all 23 big banks tested in its annual stress test, passed. Which means that the last remaining restrictions on dividend increases and share buybacks are now history. Yesterday big banks started...
The week’s big event? Friday’s report on jobs for June
All eyes on the Friday morning release of the June employment numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting a rebound from a weak May report to 700,000 net jobs added in June. May was a surprisingly weak 559,000 new jobs....
No surprise: Fed’s preferred inflation measure climbs at 3.9% year over year rate in May
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure rose 0.4% in May to an increase of 3.9% from May 2020. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, climbed at a 3.4% rate from May 2020. That was the highest...
Buying Martin Marietta Materials in my Jubak Picks Portfolio to add to infrastructure plays
On Monday, June 28, I’ll be adding shares of Martin Marietta Materials (MLM) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio to increase my exposure to the infrastructure sector after the Thursday, June 24, announcement at the White House of a bipartisan infrastructure deal. You...
Watch my new YouTube Video: 5 stock picks for the infrastructure deal
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The twenty-ninth YouTube video “5 stock picks for the infrastructure deal” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
News that White House and Senator group have struck a deal on infrastructure sends the usual suspects higher today
The White House has announced that it has struck an infrastructure deal with a bipartisan group of 10 Senators. There are almost no details on the deal and it’s not at all clear that President Biden will be able to convince the progressive wing of his own party...
New unemployment claims fall but by less than expected
The job market is improving, but the rate of improvement is tantalizingly slow. New weekly jobless claims in regular state unemployment programs fell for the week ended on June 19 to 411,000. Economists had expected a drop to 380,000. The prior week saw a (revised)...
Wednesday copper price played a little catch up with copper stocks
Copper stocks have been moving steadily higher recently in anticipation of a turn in the eight week downward trend in the price of copper itself. Now the price of copper is showing some of the upward movement that the rally in copper stocks anticipated. For example,...
As promised in my YouTube video: How to position a portfolio for this market (additional thoughts)
To continue from my last post: Second, I think it’s just as important to recognize that even though the market is very slow and very reluctant to abandon a profitable long-tern macro story, it is very comfortable and indeed very adept at recognizing shorter term...
As promised in my YouTube video: How to position a portfolio for this market (first thoughts)
After Wednesday’s news from the Federal Reserve, we all know that an interest rate increase is coming–even if we don’t know when. Could be 2022. Could be 2023. And even if we don’t know how many increases we’re looking for in that time...
Today the market looks a lot like “before the Fed Wednesday”
Remember way back at the beginning of last week? That is before the Federal Reserve signaled on Wednesday that more of the members of its Open Market Committee were thinking about raising interest rates sooner than previously expected. Re-opening stocks, value stocks,...
Today brings the selling that many expected after Wednesday’s Fed meeting
Yesterday, growth stocks climbed in the face of signals from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday that interest rates increase were coming sooner–as soon as the end of 2022–than expected. That seemed puzzling. May be, one line of thought (mine) had it,...
The Standard & Poor’s 500 is basically flat with a loss of just 0.04% as of the close today. If you want ACTION!!! you have to look elsewhere: To the NASDAQ Composite, which was up 0.87% at the close and to the small cap Russell 2000, which was down 1.18%...
Initial claims for unemployment rise to end six-week streak of improving labor market
Initial jobless claims in regular state unemployment programs rose to 412,000 for the week ended June 12. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting 3.425 million new claims. This is the last week for which it will be possible to put together a meaningful trend...
Watch my new YouTube video: “Interest Rate Hikes Are Coming”
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The twenty-eighth YouTube video “Interest Rate Hikes Are Coming” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. You can see it...
Today it’s the Dot Plot and not the Fed’s story that sends prices down
The rhetoric was the same after today’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee: “Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.” The Fed kept its benchmark short-term interest rate at 0% to 0.25% But the Dot Plot...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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