U.S. economy adds 467,000 jobs in January–more than economists had expected and cementing the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates in March
The U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs in January. The official unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4% from 3.9% in December, as more people moved off the sidelines to enter the labor market. Over the past 12 months, the United States has added nearly 7 million jobs....
ADP private payroll drop is negative lead in to Friday’s official jobs report for January
It is enough to make financial markets nervous this morning. This morning, the ADP Research Institute report on private company jobs showed a big decline of 301,000 jobs in January. Economist surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for an increase of 180,000. The drop in...
The limits of stock market history: it’s not a great guide right now
I’m a big fan of history. I study it. I love reading it. I find the patterns of the past fascinating. Both in themselves and for what they tell us about our own time and the likely future. But…I just don’t think stock market history is a very...
So what was Monday? A bottom for stocks, just one of those oversold bouncy things, or something else?
Yesterday stocks reversed direction big time. After days of pounding lower the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.89% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.17% The NASDAQ Composite climbed 3.41% and the NASDAQ 100 tacked on 3.29%. Even the small cap...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Trend of the Week Supply Chain Chaos Continues
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-fifth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: Supply Chain Chaos Continues” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video....
Time to add an airline stock? I’d say yes: Adding Delta to Jubak Picks
From my perspective, there are good reasons to almost never own an airline stock. The industry doesn’t make money. The investing saw is that over the sector’s history it has broken even–at best. Airline stocks are extremely cyclical with swings from...China manufacturing slows–big deal for global supply chains and People’s Bank stimulus plans
Output from China’s manufacturing sector slowed to its weakest in almost two years in January, according to the Caixin/Markit Purchasing Managers Index. The index dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.9 in December. In the index a reading below 50 indicates that output...
Please watch my new YouTube video: “Quick Pick CMG”
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-fourth YouTube video “QuickPick CMG” went up today. (By the way, I added Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio on January 26. The stock closed...
PCE inflation measure confirms CPI–inflation is hot, hot, hot
Nothing new here in a way. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index, the inflation measure preferred by the Federal Reserve, jumped to an annualized 5.8% rate in December. That confirms the message from the 7% annualized increase in the Consumer Price Index reported...
Is the trend turning in favor of big tech growth stocks?
It’a always dangerous to construct a trend from Friday’s trading. Especially when the earlier part of the week has been so strong in one direction or another. (In this case, down, down, down.) Ahead of the weekend, stocks often reverse the trend from...
Please watch my new YouTube Video: What if the Fed is Wrong?
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-third YouTube video “What if the Fed is wrong?” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. Here’s the...
Fed chair Powell gets a tad more specific in press conference and stocks don’t like it
In his post meeting press conference Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was ready to raise interest rates in March and didn’t rule out moving interest rates higher at every meeting in order to to tackle inflation. Stocks didn’t appreciate...
Federal Reserve delivers the expected
Today, January 26, in its post Open Market Committee press release the Federal Reserve said it would “soon” be appropriate to raise interest rates, as inflation runs above policymakers’ preferred target and the job market strengthens. The Fed left interest rates...
On second look market decides Microsoft earnings were good news
The reaction to Microsoft’s (MSFT) earnings report yesterday after the market close tells you that this market is poised at an earnings inflection point. Earnings, especially technology company earnings, are going to be strong this quarter, but the earnings...
What happens when/if the Federal Reserve does nothing, says (almost) nothing tomorrow?
At the moment, Wall Street is mesmerized by tomorrow’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting body, the Open Market Committee. The meeting is almost certain to result in no action on interest rates or Treasury purchases or balance sheet...
More hedges against Russia/Ukraine conflict and higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve
I only recommend options on my subscription sites JubakAM.Com and JugglingWithKnives.com. Over the weekend I recommended using natural gas stocks as a way to hedge the risk of a Russia/Ukraine conflict and ensuing sanctions against Russia. I recommended shares of...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Trend of the Week Even More Volatility in Treasuries
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-second YouTube video “Trend of the Week Even More Volatility in Treasuries” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video....
History says stock do well when the Fed raises interest rates–it’s likely to be different this time
According to stock market history, stock investors should be that the Federal Reserve is about to start raising interest rates. Stocks have risen at an average annualized rate of 9% during the 12 Federal Reserve interest rate increase cycles since the 1950s and...
Putting on hedges for a Russia-Ukraine conflict today (as in NOW)
I only recommend options on my subscription sites JubakAm.Com and JugglingWithknives.com. And this week on those sites I’ve closed the two VIX CALL Options I bought back on December 31 as protection (and potential profits) from an increase in market volatility...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick FXI China ETF
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-first YouTube video “QuickPick: FXI China ETF” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. Here’s the...
Please watch my new YouTube video: 3 Picks on Tech Stock Guidance
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninetieth YouTube video “3 Picks on Tech Stock Guidance” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video. Here’s the...
It’s a bull market on inflation fears and scary Fed forecasts–which is actually a good thing
Once upon a time there was a stock market with what the central bank called “transitory” inflation. Wall Street money managers worried that the central bank was behind the curve on fighting inflation and projected that interest rates would go up in...
It’s official: NASDAQ Composite is in a correction (thanks to the continued rout in tech stocks)
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 1.15% on Wednesday, January 19. That marked the first close for the index in correction territory since March. (The common definition of a correction is a drop of 10% or more.) The technology-heavy index is down 8.3% so far in...
Even good earnings and guidance, and decent inflation news from P&G can’t push stocks higher today
Procter & Gamble (PG) reported adjusted earnings of $1.66 a share for its fiscal second quarter. Analysts had expected the company to report earnings $1.65 a share. Revenue of $21 billion also came in ahead of Wall Street projections $20.34 billion. Organic sales...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Trend of the Week A New Commodity Super Cycle
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My eighty-ninth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: A new commodity super cycle” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my video....
People’s Bank moves to juice China’s economy earlier than I expected
Today, the People’s Bank of China cut its key interest rate for the first time in almost two years to help support China’s economy. The People’s Bank of China lowered the rate at which it provides one-year loans to banks by 10 basis points. Not a huge...
Illumina ups guidance and soars–what this tells us about this stock and market’s growth fears
On January 11, Illumina (ILMN) told analysts at the annual JPMorgan Chase healthcare conference to expect 39% sales growth for 2021 when the company reports earnings on February 10. And that analyst earnings and revenue forecasts for 2022 were too low. Sales would...Big banks deliver mixed start to Q4 earnings season with JPMorgan down and Wells Fargo up
Sing along: One of these banks is not like the others. One of these banks doesn’t belong. This morning big money center banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Citigroup (C) delivered disappointing reports on fourth quarter revenue and earnings. Shares of JPMorgan Chase...
Please watch my new YouTube video: “3 Sectors to Avoid After the Fed Tightens”
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My eighty-seventh YouTube video “3 Sectors to Avoid After the Fed Tightens” went up today. Please watch and subscribe to my YouTube channel. And like my...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
Every post from Jubak Picks straight to your mailbox. And they're free!