Yesterday’s optimism about a cease fire in Ukraine and peace talks turns back into pessimism (realism?) today
Hopes for a cease fire in Ukraine and for serious peace talks between Russia and Ukraine took the stock indexes up yesterday and the price of oil and oil stocks down. News of renewed Russian shelling and that Russian troops were redeploying rather than withdrawing...
Treasury yield curve inverts–a Recession indicator drops into place
Yesterday, March 28, a substantial piece of the Treasury yield curve fell into inversion. The yield on the 5-year Treasury climbed to 2.57%. Which put it above the yield both the 10-year Treasury at 2.46% and the 30-year Treasury at 2.55%. “Normally”...
Please Watch my YouTube video: Trend of the Week: Don’t sell those oil stocks yet
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and sixteen YouTube video “Don’t Sell Your Oil Stocks Yet” went up today. Don’t sell those oil stocks yet! Back at the beginning...
Tesla to split so it’s time to buy Costco
Tesla (TSLA) announced today that it will ask shareholders for permission to split its stock. No news yet on what the ratio of the split will be, but on the news shares of Tesla were up 8.03% at the close today, March 28, to $1,091.84. That split comes on the heels of...
Buying Bloomberg Agricultural Commodities ETN for Jubak Picks on Monday
With the war in Ukraine continuing its horrible grind and with economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and Europe including more and more of the global economy, I’ve been looking for ways to invest in higher commodity prices. My steps have...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick Agricultural Commodity ETN JJA
I’m starting up my video again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and fifteenth YouTube video “Quick Pick Agricultural Commodity ETN JJA” went up today. This week’s Quick Pick is an ETN that tracks agricultural...
My first “Recession Preparation” sell: Lululemon
Projections schedule a potential Recession for the second half of 2022 or 2023. Fears of that impending trend will begin to be felt in stock prices before that. The sector most likely to feel the effects of any Recession–and thus the sector most likely to first...
Initial claims fall again; labor market stays hot
Initial claims for unemployment set a more than 50-year low last week. The Labor Department reported initial jobless claims, for the week ended March 19, fell to 187,000 versus an expected 210,000 and a revised 215,000 for the prior week. Continuing claims, for the...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Three Recession Stock Sells
I’m starting up my video again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and fourteenth YouTube video “Three Recession Sells” went up today. This week’s video takes a look at what I’m calling consumer discretionary...
Bad news from China for the global food crunch–add to positions in the DJP Bloomberg Commodity ETN
How does the lyric go (as sung by Albert King)? “If it wasn’t for bad luck, I would have no luck at all.” Maybe that song written by Booker T. Jones and William Bell should be the theme song for the global food market right now. This month...
Australia ban on alumina shipments to Russia keeps aluminum rally hot–raising my target price on Alcoa
Shares of Alcoa (AA) took a breather today, March 22, from their torrid run. At the close Alcoa was down 0.89% But I think the stock will go higher from here. On Sunday Australia banned alumina shipments to Russia in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The...
Ooof! Yield on 10-year Treasury hits 2.38% at the close today
As of the close today, Tuesday, March 22, Treasuries had sold off steeply raising the yield on the 10-year Treasury to 2.38%, a huge (for the Treasury bond market) 9 basis points. The rout took the yield on the 2-year Treasury to 2.16%. On Friday,March 18, the 2-year...
From buy on the dip to sell on the bounce–this is a stock market in transition
Yesterday, March 17, the stocks, and especially the technology stocks, that have been pummeled in 2022 continued their three-day bounce. For another day, at least, buy on the dip proved to be a very profitable adventure. Lithium recycling startup LiCycle (LICY), for...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Three great summer trades get tricky
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and fourteenth YouTube video “Three great summer trades get tricky” went up today. Special extra video this week! Ahead of tomorrow’s Quick Pick (no,...
Beijing steps in and China stocks soar
Yesterday, March 15, I was thinking that I wished I didn’t own any China stocks at all. Today, March 16, I wished I owned more. Lot’s more. First, China’s top financial policy group vowed to ensure stability in capital markets, support overseas stock...
Please watch my new YouTube video: The Fed gets depressed
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and thirteenth YouTube video “The Fed gets depressed” went up today. Happy spring! But not for the Fed. In the meeting today, the Federal...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Trend of the Week Central Banks tighten faster than expected
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and twelfth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: Central banks tighten faster than expected” went up today. This week I’m looking at tightening by...
Airlines climb on oil drop, traffic pickup–now it gets tricky
Oil prices collapsed. And airlines reported a better than expected pick up in traffic. So airline stocks soared with the most stressed operators showing the biggest gains in their shares. Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed up 8.70% on the day. United Airlines (ULA) picked...
Extreme day to day volatility is hiding the stock market’s trends–and 4 ways to put this volatility to use
Consternation isn’t an investment strategy. Although I certainly understand that reaction to current stock market moves. The day to day volatility is that extreme. But if we focus on that volatility and on how confusing this market is, I think we’re in...
U.S. to ban Russian oil and natural gas–Brent hits $131 a barrel, WTI $127
The United States will ban imports of oil and natural gas from Russia, President Biden announced Tuesday. I’ve tried to pin down the exact timing and implementation of the ban (I don’t see these details in the executive order as released by the White...
More disruptions to the global chip supply chain-I’ll do some trimming in the sector tomorrow by selling ASML, LRCX, and IFNNY
Right now investors and traders are getting a crash course in how vulnerable global supply chains are to disruption–especially when they become really extended. And how a supply chain disruption can ripple out in unexpected directions thanks to the complexity of...
Perfect storm of bad news on oil supply sends WTI crude over $120 a barrel
I suppose there is something else that could add to the supply of bad news today on oil supply, but we’ve already got a full dance card At 2 P.m. in New York U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate traded up 5.07% to $121.55 a barrel; international...
Want to know what stocks and sectors will rise and fall and when? Watch the lags
If the Ukraine war drags on into May, how quickly will grain prices retreat to something like normal? To answer that question–and similar queries for fertilizer, for chip production, and other sectors–pay attention to the lags: how much time it will take...
Economy adds 250,000 more jobs than expected in February, wage growth lags
The U.S. economy added 678,000 new jobs in February. That was the most new jobs since July. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the economy to add 423,000 jobs in the month. The official unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. The U-6 unemployment rate, which...
Please watch my new YouTube video: You should own more commodities
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and eighth YouTube video “You should on more commodities” went up today. We all know that oil and gas prices will rise even more as a result...
Airline stocks take another whack on fears that higher jet fuel prices will require many to sell stock to raise capital
As far as I’ve been able to discover, it was a research note from Wolfe Research that began the negative “rethink.” Wolfe forecast that the airlines including United Airlines (UAL) and American Airlines (AAL) were burning cash so fast because of the...
Powell tells markets to expect 25 basis point interest rate increase on March 16
Not 0%. But then almost no one expects the Federal Reserve to stand pat on interest rates at its March 16 meeting–even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not 50 basis points. Although many on Wall Street project that the Fed will throw its customary caution...
Flight to safety means selling anything today
With Russian troops laying siege to Ukraine’s two largest cities, I certainly don’t blame financial markets for a high degree of anxiety. After all investors and traders are also looking at the consequences of massive sanctions piled on Russian banks...
Please watch my new YouTube video: Trend of the Week Auto Supply Stocks
I’m starting up my videos again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and seventh YouTube video “Trend of the Week Auto Supply Stocks” went up today. Two big deals for auto suppliers have Wall Street excited! Last week,...Jim’s Daily Email Alerts:
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